Reading SG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, but compared with sector peers, SG is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 19% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.87 SG trades at 17× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $11 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $6.50–$7.00. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 21% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.00x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.07 → $-0.10 (-35.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 3 cut, 5 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 20% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$344.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$748.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,109.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a shift in the declining consumer discretionary sector. It could show that Sweetgreen is gaining traction.
Confirms:Sweetgreen reports positive revenue growth in its next earnings release on August 6, 2026.
Disproves:Revenue continues to decline in the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026 , Sweetgreen, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for its fiscal quarter ended March 29, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is furnished herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securiti…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$6.50 – $7.00 (median $7.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Restaurants.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SG Sweetgreen, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | fair | elevated |
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | full | moderate |
SBUX Starbucks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
YUM Yum! Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Sweetgreen aims to achieve positive Adjusted EBITDA between $1.0 million to $6.0 million for fiscal year 2026.
Sweetgreen targets a restaurant-level profit margin of 14.2% to 14.7% for fiscal year 2026.
Sweetgreen is focused on increasing its revenue, with a fiscal year 2026 guidance of $679.5 million.
Why it matters: The retail sales report on June 17, 2026, will show if consumers are spending more. This can impact Sweetgreen's sales.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims data from June 18 and June 25, 2026, can show how confident consumers are. This affects how much money they spend and can impact Sweetgreen's sales.
Confirms one read:Weekly unemployment claims drop below 200,000.
Confirms the other:Weekly unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 26, 2026, Sweetgreen, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 28, 2025 . A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is furnished herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of S…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets On December 29, 2025 (the “Closing Date”), Sweetgreen, Inc. (the “Company”) completed the previously announced merger and asset sale contemplated by that certain Agreement and Plan of Merger and Asset Purchase, dated November 5, 2025 (the “Agreement”), by and among Wonder Group, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Wonder”), Wonder Group Robotics, LLC (f/k/a Wonder Automation, Inc.), a Delaware limited liability company and a wholly owned subsidiar…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 6, 2025, Sweetgreen, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s financial results for its fiscal quarter ended September 28, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is furnished herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On September 4, 2025, Sweetgreen, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that, on September 1, 2025, Mitch Reback notified the Company of his retirement as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, effective September 21, 2025. The Company also announced on September 4, 2025 that Jamie McConnell has been appointed to serve as the Company’s Chief Financial Off…