Reading YUMC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track YUMC free→Reading YUMC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track YUMC free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, YUMC is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If YUMC cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $43.65. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $44 YUMC trades at 17× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $56 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 20% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.65x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.67. 0 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 96% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$103.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$230.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,607.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choices can affect how much consumers spend and interest rates. This impacts YUMC.
Confirms one read:The FOMC raises interest rates. This shows confidence in the economy and may boost spending.
Confirms the other:The FOMC cuts interest rates. This signals worries about the economy and may lower spending.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for YUMC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Yum China Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its unaudited results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Restaurants.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
YUMC YUM CHINA HOLDINGS INC | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | moderate |
SBUX Starbucks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
YUM Yum! Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Yum China aims to return $1.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company is on track to return $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2026 through dividends and share repurchases. This commitment has been consistently reiterated, indicating a strong focus on capital allocation.
“On track to return $1.5 billion to Shareholders in 2026.”
“part of the broader plan to return US$1.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2026.”
“part of the broader plan to return US$1.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2026.”
Yum China plans to expand its store network by targeting more than 1,900 net new stores in 2026.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The company aims to open more than 1,900 net new stores in 2026. This expansion plan is a significant growth initiative, but financials do not yet show the impact of this expansion.
“targeting more than 1,900 net new stores.”
Yum China targets capital expenditures of approximately $600 million to $700 million in 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company plans capital expenditures of $600 million to $700 million in 2026. This target has been consistently communicated, but current financials do not yet reflect the full extent of this planned investment.
“The Company targets: ... Capital expenditures of approximately $600 million to $700 million.”
Why it matters: This report will show how consumers are spending. This affects YUMC's sales directly.
Confirms one read:Retail sales growth in the report is better than expected. This shows stronger consumer spending.
Confirms the other:Retail sales growth in the report is lower than expected. This suggests weaker consumer spending.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it shows the consumer sector is recovering. This could help YUMC.
Confirms:YUMC reports positive revenue growth year over year in its next earnings report.
Disproves:YUMC continues to report negative revenue growth year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 4, 2026, Yum China Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its unaudited results for the full year and fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 6, 2026, Robert B. Aiken, a member of the board of directors (the “Board”) of Yum China Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), notified the Company of his intention not to stand for re-election at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (“2026 Annual Meeting”), based on considerations regarding his future professional commitments. Mr.…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On December 12, 2025, Yum China Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing the expansion of share repurchase authorization by US$1 billion and a press release announcing approximately US$460 million share repurchase agreements for the first half of 2026. Copies of the press releases are being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2025, Yum China Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing its unaudited results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
“Capital expenditures of approximately $600 million to $700 million.”