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Cava Group (CAVA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$87.31-2.47%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, indicating less shareholder-friendly moves. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 447% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Market cap
- $10.60B
- Employees
- 12,900
- IPO date
- 2023-05-19
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-21
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $87.31. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$15.96consensus
Range $11.75 – $53.44
vs price: +447% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$66.93consensus
Range $23.94 – $119.18
vs price: +30% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $90, CAVA's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 10× p/s (10.5× the 1× p/s peer median, and 1.2× even its own history). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $16 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $69–$133. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
10.1x
peer 1.0x · own history 8.6x
Premium
10.5x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
467%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$15.79
range $11.73 – $53.87
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 467% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
86th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.81x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
77th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +10.8% / 30d, n=16for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.17 → $0.19 (+10.8% / 30d). 11 raised, 1 cut, 16 covering analysts.
Rating actions
2 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 11 maintained. 61% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
10 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 19.0% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strongProvisional
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$241.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$497.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,265.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 11d
Watch for same restaurant sales growth below 4.5%
Why it matters: This would indicate weaker customer demand and could hurt overall revenue growth.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Same restaurant sales growth reported below 4.5% for the next quarter.
Disproves:Same restaurant sales grew over 6.5%.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CAVA yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MCD, SBUX, and YUM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting CAVA and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CAVA raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-19), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If CAVA cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-19), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like MCD, SBUX, and YUM start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping CAVA and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits CAVA and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-1929d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 19, 2026 , CAVA Group, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing earnings and other financial results for the fiscal quarter ended April 19, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including the corresponding Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange A…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+3.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.