Reading MCD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MCD free→Reading MCD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MCD free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, MCD is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If MCD cuts guidance on the next call, that could be negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $287.94. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $286 MCD trades at 23× p/e, in line with its 21× p/e peer median. Our $261 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $305–$385. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 10% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.21x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.34 → $3.35 (+0.2% / 30d). 3 raised, 22 cut, 29 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 56% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$75.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$167.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,959.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Comparable sales growth is key to McDonald's performance. A drop signals trouble.
Confirms:Q2 sales growth was below 3.8%.
Disproves:Q2 comparable sales growth exceeds 3.8%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Legal issues could impact brand reputation and sales.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, McDonald’s Corporation issued an investor release reporting its results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the investor release is being filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference in its entirety. Also filed herewith and incorporated by reference as Exhibit 99.2 is supplemental information for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The information under this Item 2.02, including suc…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$305.00 – $385.00 (median $331.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Restaurants.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | full | moderate |
SBUX Starbucks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
YUM Yum! Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
DRI Darden Restaurants | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on sustaining operating margins within the mid-to-high 40% range.
Plan to increase capital expenditures to between $3.7 and $3.9 billion in 2026.
Why it matters: Operating margin is key for profit. A drop means there could be problems.
Confirms:Operating margin is below the mid-40% range.
Disproves:Operating margin is at or above the mid-40% range.
Why it matters: A drop in operating margin would show McDonald's is struggling to control costs. This could hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 operating margin was below 40%.
Disproves:Q2 operating margin stays at or above 40%.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a shift in the consumer discretionary sector. This might affect McDonald's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported below the median for the sector.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above the median for the sector.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows McDonald's focus on growth and updates.
Confirms:Capital spending is at or above $3.7 billion for 2026.
Disproves:Capital spending is below $3.7 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Strong loyalty sales show that customers are interested. This can help total sales grow.
Confirms:Loyalty program sales growth reported above 20% for the year.
Disproves:Loyalty program sales growth reported below 20% for the year.
Advances: Maintain operating margin in mid-to-high 40% range
Modernization supports operating margin maintenance.
of the Current Report on Form 8-K that McDonald’s Corporation (the “Company”) filed on February 10, 2026, which reported that on February 4, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) elected James D. Farley, Jr., as a Director, effective February 4, 2026. On March 30, 2026, the Board appointed Mr. Farley to its Audit & Finance Committee and Corporate Responsibility Committee, effective immediately. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 11, 2026, McDonald’s Corporation issued an investor release reporting its results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the investor release is being filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference in its entirety. Also filed herewith and incorporated by reference as Exhibit 99.2 is supplemental information for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The information und…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (d) On February 4, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of McDonald’s Corporation (the “Company”) increased the size of the Company’s Board to a total of 12 Directors, effective February 4, 2026. At the same meeting, the Board elected James D. Farley, Jr., as a Director, also effective February 4, 2026. The Board has not elected Mr. Farley to…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2025, McDonald’s Corporation issued an investor release reporting its results for the third quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the investor release is being filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference in its entirety. Also filed herewith and incorporated by reference as Exhibit 99.2 is supplemental information for the third quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2025. The in…