NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-07-31
Reading MCD? Create a free portfolio, then add this holding for ongoing Reports and tracking. Track it in a free portfolio. No credit card.
Create your account →Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Restaurants is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Sustain revenue growth near 7% or higher: rev +9% vs 7%.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 7% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskMcDonald's must maintain its operating margin in the mid-to-high 40% range. Recent earnings showed a revenue growth of 9% year over year, with a beat of 3.3%. It trades at 22× P/E, slightly above the peer median of 20×. The market expects modest growth, which may not be fully priced in. A specific risk is the potential for a guidance cut, with a 17% miss probability. Peer multiples imply a price about 15% above where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-31. MCD is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 35 analysts currently covering MCD (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 9 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for MCD in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-08-01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Restaurants — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Threatens: Maintain operating margin in mid-to-high 40% range
Higher costs impact operating margin objectives.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-31. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $270.64
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $270.64.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Maintain operating margin in mid-to-high 40% range
Rising beef prices could pressure operating margins.
Threatens: Maintain operating margin in mid-to-high 40% range
Food safety issues could impact operating margins.
Legal issues could affect brand reputation and costs.
Rating upgrade supports McDonald's valuation and market position.
New product could enhance sales and margins.
Threatens: Maintain operating margin in mid-to-high 40% range
Food safety issues can impact customer trust and margins.
Threatens: Maintain operating margin in mid-to-high 40% range
Food quality issues could impact operating margins.
