McDonald's (MCD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-30
$258.12+0.29%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put MCD beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Restaurants is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Sustain revenue growth near 7% or higher: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 6% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskMcDonald’s growth thesis depends on restoring comparable sales while extending its chicken and beverage strategy. Revenue growth slowed from 9% in Q1 FY2026 to 4% in Q2 FY2026, despite an earnings beat. Q2 FY2026 non-GAAP earnings beat consensus by 1.8%. MCD trades at 21× P/E versus a 16× peer median. Expectations look modest compared with our growth view. Losing spending share to chicken and coffee rivals threatens the growth strategy. The 21× multiple must withstand that pressure. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades; the thesis is on watch; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. MCD is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 34 analysts currently covering MCD (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 19 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for MCD in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare MCD with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Restaurants — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put MCD next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Drive global comparable and systemwide sales growth
A new U.S. value deal may support traffic and comparable sales, though results remain uncertain.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $258.12
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $258.12.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Drive global comparable and systemwide sales growth
Store changes aim to drive global sales growth.
Threatens: Drive global comparable and systemwide sales growth
Challenges growth strategy amid competitive pressures.
Antitrust lawsuit could impact operational costs and strategy.
Threatens: Maintain operating margin in mid-to-high 40% range
Franchisee pushback could impact cost management.
Threatens: Expand net restaurant units to drive systemwide sales growth
Chick-fil-A's actions may hinder McDonald's drive-thru AI expansion.
Threatens: Expand net restaurant units to drive systemwide sales growth
Franchisee model pressure could hinder unit expansion and sales growth.
Advances: Drive global comparable and systemwide sales growth
New growth strategy aligns with sales growth objective.
