McDonald's (MCD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-14
$257.49+1.96%
Close 2026-09-14 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-14
Research Workspace
Put MCD beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Restaurants is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Sustain revenue growth near 7% or higher: Q2 FY26 YoY revenue +4.0% vs 7% target.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 6% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskMcDonald's needs to sustain revenue growth near 7% or higher to justify its price. Recent Q2 FY26 revenue growth was only 4%, missing the target. The stock trades at 20× P/E versus a peer median of 17×. This suggests the price reflects less growth than expected. If McDonald's cuts guidance on the next call, that could negatively impact the stock. Peer multiples imply a price about 15% above where it trades. The thesis has broken due to the primary pillar being revenue growth.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-14. MCD is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 34 analysts currently covering MCD (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 12 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for MCD in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare MCD with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Free account required to save the handoff. No credit card.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Restaurants — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put MCD next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Drive global comparable and systemwide sales growth
Delivery push enhances sales growth potential.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-14. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $257.49
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $257.49.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Rising costs may pressure operating margins.
Threatens: Maintain operating margin in mid-to-high 40% range
Higher menu prices may pressure operating margins.
Advances: Drive global comparable and systemwide sales growth
Growth from delivery platform aligns with sales growth objective.
Advances: Drive global comparable and systemwide sales growth
Improved service can drive sales growth.
Threatens: Drive global comparable and systemwide sales growth
Sales growth slowdown could hinder overall performance.
Threatens: Maintain operating margin in mid-to-high 40% range
Increased costs may impact operating margin objectives.
Threatens: Drive global comparable and systemwide sales growth
Menu issues could hinder sales growth objectives.
