Starbucks (SBUX)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-30
$103.67-1.74%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put SBUX beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Restaurants is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — EPS meets or exceeds guidance for FY26: Diluted EPS: $0.91 per share.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 4% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 14% growth a year, above the roughly 3% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskStarbucks depends on its turnaround restoring growth, yet reported revenue growth has slowed into contraction. Revenue fell 4% year over year in Q4 FY2026, despite an EPS beat. It trades at 39× P/E versus a 16× peer median, with expectations full. The peer gap leaves little room for the turnaround to disappoint. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 39%. The thesis is on watch because FY26 diluted EPS is the pressured pillar. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis).
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. SBUX is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 37 analysts currently covering SBUX (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 10 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for SBUX in the last 4 months.
Current $103.67
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $103.67.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Restaurants — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put SBUX next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Execute the Back to Starbucks growth and customer-experience strategy
CEO says the turnaround has occurred and Starbucks is entering growth mode, supporting the strategy.
Advances: Execute the Back to Starbucks growth and customer-experience strategy
CEO characterizes Starbucks as a growth company, supporting the stated turnaround strategy.
Advances: Deliver comparable-sales growth and expand the coffeehouse business
Official FY2027 EPS and North America comparable-sales targets provide concrete growth expectations.
Threatens: Finalize and leverage joint venture in China
China restructuring weighs on revenue, tempering stronger comparable sales and raising execution concerns around the joint venture.
Advances: Execute 'Back to Starbucks' strategy for growth and customer experience
Ambitious international store-growth plans support expansion, though execution and returns remain unproven.
Advances: Execute 'Back to Starbucks' strategy for growth and customer experience
Upbeat profit guidance and solid results support the turnaround despite a revenue miss.
Threatens: Execute 'Back to Starbucks' strategy for growth and customer experience
Revenue weakness from international demand challenges growth execution, though it does not break the thesis.
Advances: Execute 'Back to Starbucks' strategy for growth and customer experience
Improving U.S. same-store sales directly support customer and growth objectives.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.