NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-07-31
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Create your account →Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Restaurants is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Revenue growth under 'Back to Starbucks' strategy: revenue $9.32B vs $9.53B target.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 4% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 36% growth a year, above the roughly 1% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskStarbucks must continue its growth to justify its current price. Recent earnings showed a strong beat, with EPS at 0.85 compared to a consensus of 0.66. It trades at 44 times P/E, which is more than double the peer median of 20. The market is pricing in more growth than expected, making it look expensive. If Starbucks cuts guidance on the next call, it could negatively impact the stock. Peer multiples imply a price about 37% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-31. SBUX is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 37 analysts currently covering SBUX (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 12 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for SBUX in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-08-01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Restaurants — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Threatens: Execute 'Back to Starbucks' strategy for growth and customer experience
Abandoning SF may hinder growth strategy execution.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-31. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $105.25
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $105.25.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Execute 'Back to Starbucks' strategy for growth and customer experience
Expansion aligns with growth strategy.
Advances: Finalize and leverage joint venture in China
China JV de-risking aligns with management's objectives.
Advances: Execute 'Back to Starbucks' strategy for growth and customer experience
Strong global comps support growth strategy.
Advances: Execute 'Back to Starbucks' strategy for growth and customer experience
Raising forecasts indicates successful execution of growth strategy.
Advances: Back to Starbucks strategy
Raising forecasts indicates successful turnaround and growth.
Advances: Back to Starbucks strategy
Turnaround progress reflected in raised forecasts.
Advances: Back to Starbucks strategy
Smashing sales expectations indicates strong growth.
