Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-30
$31.89+1.95%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put CMG beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Restaurants is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 8% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 33% growth a year, above the roughly 11% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 2% a day.
View RiskChipotle’s growth case rests on strong recent performance, though earnings quality is mixed. Revenue growth accelerated from 7.4% to 9.6%, but Q3 earnings missed. Shares trade at 29× P/E versus the peer median of 16×. Expectations look full because the market prices more growth than our forecast. The risk is a Q3 earnings miss and a 25% next-quarter miss probability. Peer multiples imply a price about 33% below where it trades; our read remains intact. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. CMG is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 36 analysts currently covering CMG (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 17 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for CMG in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare CMG with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMG Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Restaurants — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put CMG next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Advance menu and digital innovation
New menu items are associated with sales growth, supporting menu innovation and comparable sales.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $31.89
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $31.89.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Achieve low single-digit comparable restaurant sales growth in 2026
Higher revenue and rising same-restaurant sales support the 2026 comparable-sales objective.
Advances: Achieve low single-digit comparable restaurant sales growth in 2026
Comparable-sales beat supports growth despite the earnings miss.
Advances: Achieve low single-digit comparable restaurant sales growth in 2026
Quarterly snapshot reports positive same-restaurant sales, supporting the sales-growth objective.
Advances: Achieve low single-digit comparable restaurant sales growth in 2026
Three consecutive quarters of positive comparable sales support the 2026 growth objective.
Threatens: Achieve low single-digit comparable restaurant sales growth in 2026
Soft sales prompt a longtime bullish analyst to question the growth outlook.
Threatens: Achieve low single-digit comparable restaurant sales growth in 2026
Downgrade cites weak October sales and a tougher forward sales outlook.
Threatens: Achieve low single-digit comparable restaurant sales growth in 2026
Analyst cuts rating and target, citing soft October sales.
