Reading EAT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EAT free→Reading EAT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EAT free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality is neutral and management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, although EAT trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 27% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment hinges on whether EAT reverses course and raises guidance next quarter, as that could signal a sharp positive shift. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $153.60. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $156 EAT trades at 15× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $213 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $175–$207. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 27% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.64x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.05 → $3.09 (+1.2% / 30d). 12 raised, 6 cut, 20 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 76% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 25.5% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$268.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$492.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,441.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a change in the growth phase of the sector.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported below the median for the last two quarters.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median for the last two quarters.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EAT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the Exhibit attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. Furthermore, the information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$175.00 – $207.00 (median $192.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Restaurants.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EAT Brinker International, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | full | moderate |
SBUX Starbucks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
YUM Yum! Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Aim to achieve total revenues in the range of $5.78 billion to $5.82 billion for fiscal 2026.
Maintain capital expenditures within the range of $240 million to $250 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Chili's has shown strong sales growth. Continued growth signals brand strength and consumer demand.
Confirms:Chili's restaurant sales growth is over 4% in Q4.
Disproves:Chili's restaurant sales growth is below 2% in Q4.
Why it matters: Meeting the $5.78B-$5.82B revenue target is key for investor confidence.
Confirms:Management confirms Q4 revenue guidance within the $5.78B-$5.82B range.
Disproves:Guidance falls below $5.78B, indicating weaker growth prospects.
Why it matters: Brinker's revenue guidance is crucial for assessing growth. Changes may impact investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Brinker raises its revenue guidance for fiscal 2026 to over $5.80 billion.
Confirms the other:Brinker lowers its revenue guidance for fiscal 2026 to below $5.76 billion.
Why it matters: Maggiano's sales have gone down. A recovery would show better marketing and operations.
Confirms:Maggiano's restaurant sales growth is positive in Q4.
Disproves:Maggiano's restaurant sales decline more in Q4.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how confident consumers feel and how much they spend.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows growth above 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows a decline or growth below 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can show weak economy. This can hurt consumer spending.
Confirms:When unemployment claims go over 300,000, it shows economic stress.
Disproves:If claims stay under 250,000, it suggests the economy is stable.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On February 26, 2026, Brinker International, Inc. (the “Company”) promoted George Felix, to the position of Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer. In this role, Mr. Felix will provide leadership and oversee strategy and execution of marketing programs and initiatives at both Chili’s Grill & Bar and Maggiano’s Little Italy. Mr. Felix p…