Brinker International, Inc. (EAT)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$215.31-3.23%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Brinker International grows revenue to about $5.8 billion in fiscal 2026. Profit per share is expected to rise to around $10.7. The company keeps capital spending low near $245 million. Recent earnings beat estimates and revenue grew 3.3% year over year.
Growth may slow as Chili's revival cools, hurting revenue gains. Profit margins could shrink if costs rise. The sector faces headwinds and the stock is correcting after gains.
The price is about 16% above our fair value near $152, reflecting roughly 7% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is 21% below the Street median, so the market partly prices in stronger outcomes than we expect.
Breaks if: Capex exceeds $275 million in FY26
Breaks if: EPS falls below $8.5 per share in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $5.33 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on sustainable growth, particularly through the Chili's brand. The current thesis state is intact, driven by recent strong performance, but it is under pressure from external factors.
The market appears to have a stretched valuation compared to peers, with a premium of 1.27. There is a 20% expectations gap, suggesting that investors are anticipating some level of continued growth but are cautious about potential risks.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong in the near term, supported by management's focus on growth and disciplined capital expenditures. However, there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, which could impact sentiment given the company's recent history of misses.
The thesis hinges on several key factors, including the company's ability to maintain guidance, the trajectory of inflation, and performance from sector leaders like MCD and SBUX. Any changes in these areas could significantly influence EAT's performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read has strengthened. It is supported by increase revenue to $5.78b-$5.82b for fiscal 2026.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Achieve total revenues in the range of $5.78 billion to $5.82 billion for fiscal 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Fiscal 2026 revenue guidance was reiterated and raised from $5.60B-$5.70B to $5.78B-$5.82B. Actual fiscal 2026 revenues reached $5.81 billion, reflecting delivery close to the guidance range and management's focus on revenue growth.
“Updated fiscal 2026 revenue guidance $5.78 billion - $5.82 billion.”
“Raised guidance reflecting stronger sales outlook for Chili's through fiscal year.”
“Reiterated fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $5.60 billion - $5.70 billion.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, EAT's performance will depend on its execution and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.