Brinker International, Inc. (EAT)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$182.70-3.90%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Brinker International, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

14.56 → 14.53 EPS · FY ending Jun 24, 2028 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q2
Revenue	—	1.54B
EPS	—	3.352
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	$6.15B–$6.27B	6.3B
EPS	$12.6–$13.4non-GAAP	13.269
Capital expenditure	$265M–$285M	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.48B
EPS	—	14.531

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capex remains within $240M-$250M in fiscal 2026	A supporting condition in Brinker International, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is between $240 million and $250 million.	Broken	Capex exceeds $275 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $58.4M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: between $240 million and $250 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 19, 202658,400,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 24, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS reaches $10.6-$10.85 in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Brinker International, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $10.6 per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $8.5 per share in FY26	Diluted EPS: $2.96 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $10.6 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 19, 20262.96 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 24, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches $5.78B-$5.82B in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Brinker International, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $5.78 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $5.33 billion in FY26	Revenue: $1.536B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.78 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 19, 20261,535,800,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 24, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Fiscal 2026 total revenues increased from $5.384 billion in 2025 to $5.807 billion in 2026, exceeding the $5.78B-$5.82B guidance range. Management has consistently reiterated this revenue target and is delivering growth consistent with it. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-24 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$14.53

Unavailable → $14.53 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$6.48B

$6.41B → $6.48B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$6,407,666,403	4 / 11
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$6,407,666,403	4 / 11
2026-08-15	$13.82	$6,407,666,403	8 / 11
2026-08-16	$13.82	$6,407,666,403	8 / 11
2026-08-17	$13.82	$6,407,666,403	8 / 11
2026-08-18	$13.82	$6,407,666,403	11 / 14
2026-08-19	$13.82	$6,407,666,403	11 / 14
2026-08-20	$14.56	$6,472,644,436	11 / 13
2026-08-21	$14.52	$6,472,644,436	11 / 13
2026-08-22	$14.52	$6,472,644,436	11 / 13
2026-08-23	$14.52	$6,472,644,436	11 / 14
2026-08-24	$14.52	$6,472,644,436	11 / 14
2026-08-25	$14.52	$6,468,306,971	12 / 14
2026-08-26	$14.52	$6,468,306,971	12 / 14
2026-08-27	$14.52	$6,468,306,971	12 / 14
2026-08-28	$14.52	$6,468,306,971	12 / 14
2026-08-29	$14.52	$6,468,311,221	12 / 14
2026-08-30	$14.52	$6,468,311,221	12 / 14
2026-08-31	$14.52	$6,468,311,221	12 / 14
2026-09-01	$14.52	$6,468,311,221	12 / 14
2026-09-02	$14.52	$6,468,311,221	12 / 14
2026-09-03	$14.52	$6,468,311,221	12 / 14
2026-09-04	$14.52	$6,468,311,221	12 / 14
2026-09-05	$14.52	$6,468,311,221	12 / 14
2026-09-06	$14.52	$6,468,311,221	12 / 14
2026-09-07	$14.52	$6,468,311,221	12 / 14
2026-09-08	$14.52	$6,468,311,221	12 / 14
2026-09-09	$14.52	$6,468,311,221	12 / 14
2026-09-10	$14.53	$6,470,757,909	12 / 14
2026-09-11	$14.55	$6,476,915,915	12 / 14
2026-09-12	$14.59	$6,476,754,465	12 / 14
2026-09-13	$14.59	$6,476,754,465	12 / 14
2026-09-14	$14.59	$6,476,754,465	12 / 14
2026-09-15	$14.59	$6,476,754,465	12 / 14
2026-09-16	$14.59	$6,479,235,528	12 / 14
2026-09-17	$14.59	$6,481,753,026	12 / 14
2026-09-18	$14.59	$6,481,753,026	12 / 14
2026-09-19	$14.59	$6,481,753,026	12 / 14
2026-09-20	$14.59	$6,482,550,408	12 / 15
2026-09-21	$14.59	$6,482,550,408	12 / 15
2026-09-22	$14.58	$6,477,931,107	13 / 15
2026-09-23	$14.56	$6,479,250,523	13 / 16
2026-09-24	$14.56	$6,479,250,523	13 / 16
2026-09-25	$14.56	$6,479,250,523	13 / 16
2026-09-26	$14.56	$6,479,250,365	13 / 16
2026-09-27	$14.55	$6,478,442,052	13 / 15
2026-09-28	$14.55	$6,478,442,052	13 / 15
2026-09-29	$14.55	$6,478,443,360	13 / 15
2026-09-30	$14.55	$6,478,443,360	13 / 15
2026-10-01	$14.55	$6,478,443,360	13 / 15
2026-10-02	$14.55	$6,478,443,360	13 / 15
2026-10-03	$14.55	$6,478,443,360	13 / 15
2026-10-04	$14.55	$6,478,443,360	13 / 15
2026-10-05	$14.55	$6,478,443,360	13 / 15
2026-10-06	$14.55	$6,478,443,360	13 / 15
2026-10-07	$14.55	$6,478,443,360	13 / 15
2026-10-08	$14.55	$6,478,442,243	13 / 15
2026-10-09	$14.55	$6,478,442,243	13 / 15
2026-10-10	$14.55	$6,478,442,243	13 / 15
2026-10-11	$14.55	$6,478,442,243	13 / 15
2026-10-12	$14.55	$6,478,442,243	13 / 15
2026-10-13	$14.55	$6,478,442,243	13 / 15
2026-10-14	$14.55	$6,478,442,243	13 / 15
2026-10-15	$14.57	$6,481,864,465	13 / 15
2026-10-16	$14.57	$6,481,864,465	13 / 15
2026-10-17	$14.57	$6,481,864,465	13 / 15
2026-10-18	$14.56	$6,485,808,035	13 / 14
2026-10-19	$14.56	$6,485,808,035	13 / 15
2026-10-20	$14.54	$6,482,419,660	13 / 15
2026-10-21	$14.54	$6,482,419,660	13 / 15
2026-10-22	$14.54	$6,482,419,660	13 / 15
2026-10-23	$14.54	$6,481,696,130	13 / 15
2026-10-24	$14.53	$6,484,525,686	13 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	18	5	0
2026-06-01	16	5	0
2026-07-01	17	5	2
2026-08-01	17	5	1
2026-09-01	19	5	2
2026-10-01	21	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

2 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 19 · prior Aug 13

$285.00 → $265.00-7.0%

Raymond JamesOct 16 · prior Aug 13

$270.00 → $260.00-3.7%

JefferiesOct 14

$255.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$156.75$313.50

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capex remains within $240M-$250M in fiscal 2026Published status: Broken
EPS reaches $10.6-$10.85 in fiscal 2026Diluted EPS: $2.96 per share
Revenue reaches $5.78B-$5.82B in fiscal 2026Revenue: $1.536B

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Brinker International, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

EAT is a restaurant growth story with recent strong financial performance, rather than a turnaround based on the evidence here. Its long-term thesis is intact, and the signal recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, but management and earnings quality remain neutral.

What's priced into Brinker International, Inc.

Valuation is tagged as justified, with expectations broadly aligned with the model and no signs of fragile pricing. EAT trades at a 1.17 premium to peers, so the valuation evidence points to a premium rather than a discount; confidence in that assessment is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, Chili’s sales momentum and recent company sales growth support the operating picture, while fiscal 2027 capital spending remains within management’s stated range. The latest earnings were in line, but risk is elevated: a guidance cut would matter, and the evidence notes a history of a deep miss and recent peer misses.

What Brinker International, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on Chili’s sustaining profitable growth while management keeps spending disciplined. Near term, the next guidance update is a key swing factor; results and guidance from MCD, SBUX, and YUM may also signal whether sector momentum is strengthening or fading.