The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. (CAKE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-29
$112.64-0.42%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put CAKE beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Restaurants is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 47% growth a year, above the roughly 12% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskCAKE’s thesis rests on sustained guest demand and restaurant expansion supporting growth. Recent financial performance remains strong, though revenue growth eased from 7.7% to 5.0%. Q3 FY2026 revenue exceeded $1 billion, and reported non-GAAP earnings beat consensus. CAKE trades at 25× P/E versus a 16× peer median. The market prices in more growth than our forecast. The 24% next-quarter miss probability and management’s stated commitment delay are risks. The 2027 revenue outlook also faces capacity and labor-cost pressures. Peer multiples imply a price about 47% below where it trades. The thesis is on watch; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. CAKE is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 19 analysts currently covering CAKE (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 9 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for CAKE in the last 4 months.
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Compare CAKE with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAKE Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Restaurants — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put CAKE next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Open as many as 26 new restaurants in fiscal 2026
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $112.64
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $112.64.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Reported 2027 revenue forecast and up to 27 openings indicate growth beyond the 2026 opening target.
Advances: Build sales through guest experience and concept engagement
Reported record volumes and substantial growth runway support guest engagement and sales objectives.
Advances: Open as many as 26 new restaurants in 2026
Increased guest frequency supports new restaurant openings.
Threatens: Open as many as 26 new restaurants in 2026
Closing locations undermines growth objective for new restaurants.
Advances: Achieve consolidated sales of approximately $4.0 billion in 2026
Upgrade indicates confidence in achieving sales target.
Advances: Open as many as 26 new restaurants in 2026
Staying on track for 26 openings aligns with growth objectives.
Advances: Achieve consolidated sales of $3.91 billion in 2026
Higher profit and sales support growth objectives.
Advances: Achieve consolidated sales of $3.91 billion in 2026
Earnings beat supports growth objective.
