NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-07-31
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Create your account →Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Restaurants is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 5% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, the balance sheet, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 62% growth a year, above the roughly 9% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskCAKE's growth depends on achieving $4 billion in revenue for fiscal 2026. Recent earnings showed a 7.7% revenue increase and a 23.1% earnings surprise. It trades at 24× P/E, while the peer median is 20×. The market seems to expect more growth than what is likely. If CAKE cuts guidance, it could face a significant decline. Peer multiples imply a price about 62% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-31. CAKE is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 23 analysts currently covering CAKE (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 11 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for CAKE in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-08-01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Restaurants — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Advances: Achieve consolidated sales of approximately $4.0 billion in 2026
Upgrade indicates confidence in achieving sales target.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-31. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $101.42
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $101.42.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Open as many as 26 new restaurants in 2026
Staying on track for 26 openings aligns with growth objectives.
Advances: Achieve consolidated sales of $3.91 billion in 2026
Higher profit and sales support growth objectives.
Advances: Achieve consolidated sales of $3.91 billion in 2026
Earnings beat supports growth objective.
Threatens: Increase operating income
Decline in earnings threatens operating income.
