Reading CAKE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CAKE free→Reading CAKE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CAKE free→
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact future growth. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. If CAKE cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $73.27. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $74 CAKE trades at 19× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $74 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $53–$75. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 0% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.94x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.24 → $1.14 (-7.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 11 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 35% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$164.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$314.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,639.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company meets financial targets. It impacts future guidance.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows net income growth year-over-year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows net income decline year-over-year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CAKE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION In a press release dated April 29, 2026, a copy of which is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (the “Company”) reported financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, which ended on March 31, 2026.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$53.00 – $75.00 (median $65.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-05-01
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Restaurants.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CAKE The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | moderate |
SBUX Starbucks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
YUM Yum! Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 47.1% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company plans to open up to 26 new restaurants by the end of 2026.
The company aims to maintain its quarterly dividend at $0.30 per share.
The company targets consolidated sales of approximately $3.91 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Focus on increasing operating income through improved operational efficiency.
Continue efforts to grow revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Why it matters: Sales growth shows if demand remains strong. It affects overall revenue and profits.
Confirms:Q2 restaurant sales grew by more than 1.6% compared to last year.
Disproves:Q2 restaurant sales fell compared to last year.
Why it matters: Opening new restaurants is key for growth. It shows the company's expansion strategy is on track.
Confirms:The company opens at least 10 new restaurants by the end of Q3 2026.
Disproves:Fewer than 10 new restaurants are opened by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend shows the company is stable. This can help investor trust.
Confirms:The company pays the declared dividend of $0.30 per share on May 26, 2026.
Disproves:The company cuts or stops the dividend payment.
OTHER EVENTS On April 23, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”) declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share, which will be paid on May 26, 2026 to the stockholders of record of each share of the Company’s common stock at the close of business on May 13, 2026. Future decisions to pay or to increase or decrease dividends are at the discretion of the Board and will depend upon operating performance and other factors.
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT. On March 26, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (the “Company” or “we,” “us” and “our”) entered into a Fifth Amended and Restated Loan Agreement, dated as of March 26, 2026 (the “Loan Agreement” and the credit facility provided thereunder, the “New Facility”), with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent, Bank of America, N.A., Wells Fargo Bank, National Association and BMO Bank N.A., as co-syndication agents…
CREATION OF A DIRECT FINANCIAL OBLIGATION OR AN OBLIGATION UNDER AN OFF-BALANCE SHEET ARRANGEMENT OF A REGISTRANT. The description set forth under
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION In a press release dated February 18, 2026, a copy of which is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (the “Company”) reported financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, which ended on December 30, 2025.