The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. (CAKE)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$108.37-3.62%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge The Cheesecake Factory, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+3.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.00 → 5.18 EPS · FY ending Dec 30, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.03B
EPS	—	1.264
Annual ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	4.04B
EPS	—	4.657
Annual ending 2027-12-30
Revenue	—	4.35B
EPS	—	5.176

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve consolidated sales of $3.91 billion in 2026	The company targets about $3.91 billion in sales for the year.	Intact	annual revenue falls below $3.6 billion in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management targets consolidated sales of approximately $4.0 billion for fiscal 2026, up from $3.75 billion in 2025. Revenue grew from $3.75 billion in 2025 to $2.01 billion in first half of 2026, on track to meet the annual guidance, indicating delivery on growth ambitions. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain dividend at $0.30 per share	It maintains a stable dividend of $0.30 per share.	Intact	dividend cut below $0.30 per share in 2026	Dividend per share: $0.30 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $0.30 per share quarterly dividend. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 3, 20260.3 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 13a1a2db-4196-4a69-867a-29bef17f3704. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. The Board has maintained the quarterly dividend at $0.30 per share since 2025-Q4, with payments declared for Q1, Q2, and Q3 2026. This consistent dividend level reflects steady capital return execution. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Open up to 26 new restaurants in 2026	Cheesecake Factory aims to open up to 26 new restaurants in 2026.	Intact	fewer than 20 new restaurants opened by end of 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The Company has consistently maintained the target to open as many as 26 new restaurants in fiscal 2026, including multiple brands. This target has remained stable since 2025-Q3 and is reiterated in the latest 2026-Q2 report, indicating consistent delivery focus on expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-30 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.18

$4.49 → $5.18 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.35B

$4.18B → $4.35B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.49	$4,183,606,493	12 / 15
2026-07-25	$4.49	$4,183,606,493	12 / 15
2026-07-26	$4.49	$4,183,606,493	12 / 15
2026-07-27	$4.49	$4,183,606,493	12 / 15
2026-07-28	$4.50	$4,184,920,604	12 / 15
2026-07-29	$4.50	$4,184,920,604	12 / 15
2026-07-30	$4.90	$4,297,965,657	12 / 15
2026-07-31	$4.93	$4,304,911,935	11 / 15
2026-08-01	$4.93	$4,304,911,935	11 / 15
2026-08-02	$4.93	$4,304,911,935	11 / 15
2026-08-03	$4.93	$4,304,911,935	11 / 15
2026-08-04	$4.93	$4,304,911,935	11 / 15
2026-08-05	$4.93	$4,304,911,935	11 / 15
2026-08-06	$4.93	$4,304,911,935	11 / 15
2026-08-07	$4.93	$4,304,789,713	12 / 15
2026-08-08	$4.93	$4,304,789,713	12 / 15
2026-08-09	$4.93	$4,304,789,713	12 / 15
2026-08-10	$4.93	$4,304,789,713	12 / 15
2026-08-11	$4.93	$4,304,789,713	12 / 15
2026-08-12	$4.93	$4,304,789,713	12 / 15
2026-08-13	$4.93	$4,304,789,713	12 / 15
2026-08-14	$4.93	$4,304,789,713	12 / 15
2026-08-15	$4.93	$4,304,789,713	12 / 15
2026-08-16	$4.93	$4,304,789,713	12 / 15
2026-08-17	$4.93	$4,304,789,713	12 / 15
2026-08-18	$4.93	$4,304,789,713	12 / 15
2026-08-19	$4.93	$4,304,789,713	12 / 15
2026-08-20	$4.93	$4,305,039,713	12 / 15
2026-08-21	$4.93	$4,305,039,713	12 / 15
2026-08-22	$4.93	$4,305,039,713	12 / 15
2026-08-23	$4.93	$4,305,039,713	12 / 15
2026-08-24	$4.93	$4,305,039,713	12 / 15
2026-08-25	$4.93	$4,305,039,713	12 / 15
2026-08-26	$4.93	$4,305,039,713	12 / 15
2026-08-27	$4.93	$4,305,039,713	12 / 15
2026-08-28	$4.96	$4,313,095,268	12 / 15
2026-08-29	$4.96	$4,313,095,268	12 / 15
2026-08-30	$4.96	$4,313,095,268	12 / 15
2026-08-31	$4.96	$4,313,095,268	12 / 15
2026-09-01	$4.96	$4,313,095,268	12 / 15
2026-09-02	$4.96	$4,313,095,268	12 / 15
2026-09-03	$4.96	$4,313,095,268	12 / 15
2026-09-04	$4.96	$4,313,095,268	12 / 15
2026-09-05	$4.96	$4,313,095,268	12 / 15
2026-09-06	$4.96	$4,313,095,268	12 / 15
2026-09-07	$4.97	$4,313,618,322	12 / 15
2026-09-08	$4.97	$4,313,618,322	12 / 15
2026-09-09	$4.97	$4,313,618,322	12 / 15
2026-09-10	$4.97	$4,313,618,322	12 / 15
2026-09-11	$4.97	$4,313,973,878	12 / 15
2026-09-12	$4.97	$4,313,973,878	12 / 15
2026-09-13	$4.97	$4,313,973,878	12 / 15
2026-09-14	$4.97	$4,313,973,878	12 / 15
2026-09-15	$4.97	$4,313,973,878	12 / 15
2026-09-16	$5.00	$4,319,656,883	12 / 15
2026-09-17	$5.00	$4,319,657,211	12 / 15
2026-09-18	$5.00	$4,319,657,211	12 / 15
2026-09-19	$5.00	$4,319,657,211	12 / 15
2026-09-20	$5.00	$4,319,657,211	12 / 15
2026-09-21	$5.00	$4,319,657,211	12 / 15
2026-09-22	$5.00	$4,319,657,211	12 / 15
2026-09-23	$5.00	$4,319,657,211	12 / 15
2026-09-24	$5.00	$4,319,657,211	12 / 15
2026-09-25	$5.00	$4,319,657,211	12 / 15
2026-09-26	$4.99	$4,318,654,694	12 / 15
2026-09-27	$4.99	$4,318,654,694	11 / 14
2026-09-28	$4.99	$4,318,654,694	11 / 14
2026-09-29	$4.99	$4,318,654,346	11 / 14
2026-09-30	$5.00	$4,318,654,346	11 / 14
2026-10-01	$5.00	$4,318,654,346	11 / 14
2026-10-02	$5.00	$4,318,654,346	11 / 14
2026-10-03	$5.00	$4,318,654,346	11 / 14
2026-10-04	$5.00	$4,318,654,346	11 / 14
2026-10-05	$5.00	$4,318,654,346	11 / 14
2026-10-06	$5.00	$4,318,654,346	11 / 14
2026-10-07	$5.03	$4,322,560,228	11 / 14
2026-10-08	$5.03	$4,322,560,228	11 / 14
2026-10-09	$5.03	$4,322,560,228	11 / 14
2026-10-10	$5.03	$4,323,395,522	11 / 14
2026-10-11	$5.03	$4,323,395,522	11 / 14
2026-10-12	$5.03	$4,323,395,522	11 / 14
2026-10-13	$5.03	$4,323,395,522	11 / 14
2026-10-14	$5.03	$4,323,395,522	11 / 14
2026-10-15	$5.05	$4,325,483,758	11 / 14
2026-10-16	$5.07	$4,331,510,629	12 / 15
2026-10-17	$5.07	$4,331,510,629	12 / 15
2026-10-18	$5.10	$4,336,455,323	12 / 15
2026-10-19	$5.10	$4,336,455,323	12 / 15
2026-10-20	$5.10	$4,336,455,323	12 / 15
2026-10-21	$5.10	$4,338,178,852	12 / 15
2026-10-22	$5.10	$4,339,377,440	12 / 15
2026-10-23	$5.17	$4,350,759,384	12 / 15
2026-10-24	$5.18	$4,351,794,678	12 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	11	4
2026-06-01	7	11	3
2026-07-01	6	14	3
2026-08-01	4	14	1
2026-09-01	4	14	1
2026-10-01	4	13	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 23 · prior Jul 23

$60.00 → $80.00+33.3%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 23 · prior Jul 29

$93.00 → $110.00+18.3%

Robert W. BairdOct 22 · prior Jul 29

$90.00 → $120.00+33.3%

StephensOct 15 · prior Apr 30

$65.00 → $100.00+53.8%

Morgan StanleyOct 15 · prior Jul 29

$80.00 → $87.00+8.7%

OppenheimerOct 6 · prior Jul 29

$101.00 → $122.00+20.8%

$0$67.10$134.20

6 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve consolidated sales of $3.91 billion in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain dividend at $0.30 per shareDividend per share: $0.30 per share
Open up to 26 new restaurants in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CAKE is a restaurant growth and expansion story with robust earnings quality, rather than a turnaround. Its long-term thesis is intact, and the latest signal has shifted from mixed to mildly favorable.

What's priced into The Cheesecake Factory, Inc.

The shares are valued at a sizable premium to peers, reflecting expectations of durable business strength. The evidence labels that premium unjustified, though the expectations gap is moderate and valuation is the main source of fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance is strong, with earnings beats in April and July 2026, and first-half sales support management’s roughly $4.0 billion sales goal for 2026. The plan to open as many as 26 restaurants is consistent but has mixed execution status; near-term miss risk is described as low, though peers have missed recently and CAKE has had a deep miss in its recent history.

What The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. hinges on

Over the next year, the thesis depends on sustaining sales growth, carrying out the restaurant expansion plan, and avoiding a guidance cut on the next call. Over the multi-year view, results from sector bellwethers such as MCD, SBUX, and YUM matter: continued strength could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.