Reading BROS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BROS free→Reading BROS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BROS free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 202% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and the performance of sector bellwethers like MCD and SBUX. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $66.06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $67, BROS's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 5× p/s (5.6× the 1× p/s peer median, and 1.2× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~303% near-term growth vs our ~30% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $16 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $59–$87. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 303% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 30%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.26x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.30 → $0.30 (+1.0% / 30d). 13 raised, 4 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 96% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 38.3% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$220.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$489.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,711.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows how well the company is expanding. A drop could indicate slowing demand.
Confirms:Total revenue growth reported below 30% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Total revenue growth reported above 35% for Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BROS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$59.00 – $87.00 (median $74.00) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-05-20
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Restaurants.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BROS Dutch Bros Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | moderate |
SBUX Starbucks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
YUM Yum! Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Dutch Bros aims to open at least 185 new shops by the end of the fiscal year.
Dutch Bros has increased its full-year revenue guidance to a range of $2.05 billion to $2.08 billion.
Dutch Bros plans to keep capital expenditures within the range of $270 million to $290 million for the fiscal year.
Why it matters: This metric shows how well existing shops are doing. A drop could signal weaker demand.
Confirms:Same shop sales growth reported below 4% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Same shop sales growth reported above 6% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This shows how well the company is managing its earnings. A drop could signal issues.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA was below $90 million for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA was above $95 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Opening new shops is key to growth. Meeting this goal shows strong expansion efforts.
Confirms:Total system shop openings reach at least 185 by year-end 2026.
Disproves:Total system shop openings fall short of 180 by year-end 2026.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.