Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$41.49-0.62%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Dutch Bros Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.26 → 1.25 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	568.56M
EPS	—	0.237
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$2.1B–$2.13B	2.13B
EPS	—	0.956
Capital expenditure	$350M–$370M	—
EBITDA	$385M–$390Mnon-GAAP	—
Same shop revenue growth	5%–6%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.65B
EPS	—	1.253

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures remain between $270M and $290M	A supporting condition in Dutch Bros Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $270M to $290M.	Broken	Capital expenditures fall outside $270M-$290M range in FY26	Capital expenditures: $72.29M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $270M to $290M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202672,290,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full-year revenue reaches at least $2.05 billion	Dutch Bros aims to open at least 185 new shops this year, driving growth.	Intact	Full-year revenue falls below $2.05 billion in FY26	Revenue: $550.851M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.05 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026550,851,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 553fe928-2b06-46f9-a3c5-80a0732ead0a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Open at least 185 new shops by fiscal year end	Dutch Bros aims to open at least 185 new shops this year, driving growth.	Intact	New shop openings fall below 185 by fiscal year end	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management targets at least 185 total system shop openings in 2026, up from 181 estimated at 2025-Q4. Actual shop count increased from 1,177 at 2026-Q1 to 1,225 at 2026-Q2, reflecting delivery on expansion. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth in shop openings. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.25

$1.26 → $1.25 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.65B

$2.57B → $2.65B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.26	$2,566,302,900	20 / 24
2026-07-25	$1.22	$2,570,292,051	13 / 18
2026-07-26	$1.26	$2,567,822,020	20 / 24
2026-07-27	$1.26	$2,567,822,020	20 / 24
2026-07-28	$1.26	$2,567,822,020	20 / 24
2026-07-29	$1.26	$2,567,822,020	20 / 24
2026-07-30	$1.26	$2,567,822,020	20 / 24
2026-07-31	$1.26	$2,568,278,760	20 / 24
2026-08-01	$1.23	$2,572,353,813	13 / 19
2026-08-02	$1.26	$2,568,580,670	20 / 24
2026-08-03	$1.26	$2,568,580,670	20 / 24
2026-08-04	$1.26	$2,568,580,670	20 / 24
2026-08-05	$1.26	$2,568,580,670	20 / 24
2026-08-06	$1.26	$2,568,580,670	20 / 24
2026-08-07	$1.26	$2,650,490,193	13 / 19
2026-08-08	$1.26	$2,650,490,193	13 / 19
2026-08-09	$1.28	$2,640,473,560	20 / 24
2026-08-10	$1.28	$2,640,473,560	20 / 24
2026-08-11	$1.26	$2,650,490,193	13 / 19
2026-08-12	$1.32	$2,642,111,070	13 / 15
2026-08-13	$1.32	$2,642,111,070	13 / 15
2026-08-14	$1.26	$2,650,490,193	13 / 19
2026-08-15	$1.26	$2,650,490,193	11 / 16
2026-08-16	$1.26	$2,650,490,193	11 / 16
2026-08-17	$1.26	$2,650,490,193	11 / 16
2026-08-18	$1.26	$2,650,490,193	11 / 16
2026-08-19	$1.26	$2,650,490,193	11 / 16
2026-08-20	$1.26	$2,650,490,193	10 / 13
2026-08-21	$1.26	$2,657,926,146	10 / 13
2026-08-22	$1.26	$2,657,926,146	10 / 13
2026-08-23	$1.26	$2,657,926,146	10 / 13
2026-08-24	$1.26	$2,657,926,146	10 / 13
2026-08-25	$1.26	$2,657,926,146	10 / 13
2026-08-26	$1.26	$2,657,926,146	10 / 13
2026-08-27	$1.26	$2,657,926,146	10 / 13
2026-08-28	$1.26	$2,662,719,938	10 / 14
2026-08-29	$1.26	$2,662,719,938	10 / 14
2026-08-30	$1.26	$2,662,719,938	10 / 14
2026-08-31	$1.26	$2,662,719,938	10 / 14
2026-09-01	$1.26	$2,662,719,938	10 / 14
2026-09-02	$1.26	$2,662,719,938	10 / 14
2026-09-03	$1.26	$2,662,719,938	10 / 14
2026-09-04	$1.26	$2,661,078,105	10 / 14
2026-09-05	$1.26	$2,661,078,105	10 / 14
2026-09-06	$1.26	$2,661,078,105	10 / 14
2026-09-07	$1.26	$2,661,078,105	10 / 14
2026-09-08	$1.26	$2,661,078,105	10 / 14
2026-09-09	$1.26	$2,661,078,105	10 / 14
2026-09-10	$1.26	$2,661,078,105	10 / 14
2026-09-11	$1.26	$2,661,078,105	10 / 14
2026-09-12	$1.26	$2,657,623,400	10 / 14
2026-09-13	$1.26	$2,657,623,400	10 / 14
2026-09-14	$1.26	$2,657,623,400	10 / 14
2026-09-15	$1.26	$2,657,623,400	10 / 14
2026-09-16	$1.26	$2,657,623,400	10 / 14
2026-09-17	$1.26	$2,658,910,464	10 / 14
2026-09-18	$1.26	$2,658,910,464	11 / 15
2026-09-19	$1.26	$2,658,910,464	11 / 15
2026-09-20	$1.26	$2,656,168,940	11 / 16
2026-09-21	$1.26	$2,656,168,940	11 / 16
2026-09-22	$1.26	$2,656,168,940	11 / 16
2026-09-23	$1.26	$2,656,168,940	11 / 16
2026-09-24	$1.26	$2,656,168,504	11 / 16
2026-09-25	$1.26	$2,656,168,504	11 / 16
2026-09-26	$1.26	$2,656,168,504	11 / 16
2026-09-27	$1.27	$2,658,125,525	11 / 15
2026-09-28	$1.27	$2,658,125,525	11 / 15
2026-09-29	$1.27	$2,655,438,025	11 / 15
2026-09-30	$1.27	$2,654,360,431	11 / 15
2026-10-01	$1.27	$2,654,327,098	11 / 15
2026-10-02	$1.27	$2,654,327,098	11 / 15
2026-10-03	$1.27	$2,654,899,723	11 / 14
2026-10-04	$1.27	$2,654,899,723	11 / 14
2026-10-05	$1.27	$2,654,899,723	11 / 14
2026-10-06	$1.27	$2,654,899,723	11 / 14
2026-10-07	$1.27	$2,654,899,723	11 / 14
2026-10-08	$1.27	$2,654,899,723	11 / 14
2026-10-09	$1.27	$2,654,899,723	11 / 14
2026-10-10	$1.27	$2,654,899,723	11 / 14
2026-10-11	$1.27	$2,654,899,723	11 / 14
2026-10-12	$1.27	$2,654,899,723	11 / 14
2026-10-13	$1.27	$2,654,899,723	11 / 14
2026-10-14	$1.27	$2,654,899,723	11 / 14
2026-10-15	$1.27	$2,654,899,723	11 / 14
2026-10-16	$1.27	$2,654,778,773	11 / 15
2026-10-17	$1.27	$2,654,778,773	11 / 15
2026-10-18	$1.27	$2,655,045,439	11 / 16
2026-10-19	$1.27	$2,655,045,439	11 / 16
2026-10-20	$1.27	$2,655,045,439	11 / 16
2026-10-21	$1.27	$2,655,045,439	11 / 16
2026-10-22	$1.27	$2,654,712,560	11 / 16
2026-10-23	$1.27	$2,652,087,560	12 / 16
2026-10-24	$1.25	$2,649,175,060	12 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	25	1	0
2026-06-01	24	1	0
2026-07-01	25	1	0
2026-08-01	24	1	1
2026-09-01	25	1	2
2026-10-01	25	1	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 25 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades10 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 11 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 22

$46.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleyOct 15 · prior Jul 15

$88.00 → $71.00-19.3%

Robert W. BairdOct 2

$60.00New observation · no comparable prior

D.A. DavidsonSep 28 · prior Aug 6

$85.00 → $60.00-29.4%

$0$48.40$96.80

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures remain between $270M and $290MPublished status: Broken
Full-year revenue reaches at least $2.05 billionRevenue: $550.851M
Open at least 185 new shops by fiscal year endDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-49.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Dutch Bros Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth business whose multi-year view depends on continued shop expansion and revenue growth. The thesis is intact, with recent performance in the top half of its industry, though confidence has eased from high to medium.

What's priced into Dutch Bros Inc.

The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a meaningful premium and some value resting on future growth options. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, but model confidence is low, so how much growth the market assumes is uncertain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong, including three recent earnings beats and second-quarter revenue growth of 19% from the prior quarter. Management raised full-year revenue guidance twice, while shop expansion is progressing; higher capital spending adds execution risk, and a guidance reversal would hurt credibility.

What Dutch Bros Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether BROS sustains its raised guidance and continues expanding its shop base. The sector backdrop also matters: continued strength from major restaurant peers could support momentum, while misses or lower guidance could remove that tailwind.