Documentation

What is QuarterlyIQ?

QuarterlyIQ helps people who manage their own investments understand what's happening in the U.S. economy — and what it means for their money over the next three months. We pull together trusted government data, charts, and short AI explanations so you can see both the numbers and what they mean, without wading through a dozen dashboards.

Every number you see comes from a primary source you can check yourself (see Data Sources). The AI summaries are there to explain the numbers in plain English — they don't replace them.

Who it's for

QuarterlyIQ is built for investors who want a clear process, not a stream of hot takes:

• Everyday investors who think in months, not minutes.
• Active investors who want to know how the economy is helping or hurting different sectors.
• Long-term investors who care about the next three months more than the next headline.
• Anyone who wants something more careful than a free finance site but doesn't need a Bloomberg terminal.

It is not built for day trading or millisecond signals — the data and AI summaries are designed for swing and position decisions.

How to read the site

The main sections in the top nav are:

• Economy — the dashboard. One page showing every major macro indicator with the latest value, trend, and a sparkline.
• Macro Pulse — the weekly narrative view. Summarizes where the economy is, what just changed, and which sectors the macro environment is pushing.
• Indicator pages (CPI, PCE, GDP, Labor, Jobless Claims, Fed Rates, Yield Curve) — the deep-dive for a single number, reached from the Economy dashboard or the URL bar.
• Blog — periodic explainers and updates.

A typical first visit: start on Economy for a one-screen snapshot, click through to an indicator that looks interesting, then open Macro Pulse for the weekly story tying it all together.

Dashboard overview

At the top of the page you'll see an At a Glance summary — a short read of where growth, labor, inflation, and policy are pointing right now. Below that sits a table with one row per indicator covering Real GDP, PCE and CPI inflation, the labor market, the Fed funds rate, weekly jobless claims, and the yield curve.

You can filter the table by category using the pills above it: Growth, Inflation, Labor, Rates, and Yield curve. That's useful when you only want to see, say, inflation-related readings without the other rows competing for attention.

Indicator cards

Each row on the dashboard is a compact card that packs five things together:

• Latest value — the most recent reading (e.g. 3.2%, 4.1%, 2y/10y spread of −0.25).
• Trend pill — a small badge that says whether the reading is rising, falling, or roughly flat vs. its recent history.
• Mini sparkline — a thumbnail chart of the recent series, to give you a sense of the shape at a glance.
• Risk level badge — a simple high / medium / low label flagging how much this reading matters for the current outlook.
• Release dates— when this number last updated and when it's expected to update next.

Click any row to open the full indicator page for a deep-dive — charts with full history, component breakdowns, consensus forecasts, and AI explanations (see Key Indicators).

Timeframes & history

The dashboard cards show a short recent window so the page stays readable. For longer history, click into any indicator page — each one has a range selector for 1, 3, 5, 10 years, or the full history where available. The longer windows are part of the paid tier.

Release cadences vary: jobless claims are weekly, CPI / PCE / labor / GDP are monthly or quarterly, Fed rates move on FOMC meeting dates, and the yield curve updates every trading day. The “next update” date on each card tells you when to check back.

What Macro Pulse tells you

Each edition is date-stamped and pulls together several views onto a single page:

• Macro stance grid— a one-screen read of policy direction, growth signal, inflation signal, and risk-on/risk-off tone. Think of it as the week's headline.
• Recent releases — a feed of the latest economic data that printed this week, so you can see what actually moved the picture.
• Sector SWOT Opportunity Map — the 2×2 grid showing where every major U.S. sector lands on macro support vs. market leadership. See Sector SWOT Opportunity Map for the full guide.
• Outlook — swing factors and catalyst watch. These are the forward-looking forces and upcoming events most likely to shift the read over the next few weeks.
• Edition history — a carousel of the prior eight editions so you can look back at how the picture has evolved.

How to read it

Top to bottom is the intended reading order. Start with the stance grid for the high-level mood, scan recent releases to see what just printed, use the SWOT map to see which sectors the current mix favors, and finish on outlook to know what to watch next.

Macro Pulse is published weekly. Indicator pages update more frequently — if you want to follow a specific number between editions, use the Economy dashboard instead.

What it is

The Sector SWOT Opportunity Map places every major U.S. stock-market sector on a single 2×2 grid so you can see, at a glance, which sectors the macro environment is pushing and which sectors the market is actually rewarding. When those two forces disagree, that's usually where the most interesting opportunities and risks live.

You'll find the live map inside Macro Pulse. It covers the eleven S&P 500 SPDR sector ETFs:

• XLK — Information Technology
• XLV — Health Care
• XLF — Financials
• XLY — Consumer Discretionary
• XLC — Communication Services
• XLI — Industrials
• XLP — Consumer Staples
• XLE — Energy
• XLU — Utilities
• XLRE — Real Estate
• XLB — Materials

Reading the grid

Every sector has two scores, each from −1 to +1. Those two scores place it on the grid.

X-axis — Macro Tailwind vs Headwind. A blend of six macro factors — growth, inflation, labor, policy, yield curve, and geopolitics — weighted by how sensitive each sector is to each factor. A reading near +0.5 means the current macro mix is materially supportive for that sector. A reading near −0.5 means the opposite: the macro backdrop is working against it.

Y-axis — Market Leadership.How the sector's ETF is actuallytrading relative to the S&P 500: relative performance, trend vs. the 50- and 200-day moving averages, volatility regime, and drawdown over the last ~252 trading days. A 10% blend on recent news sentiment is layered in. Positive = the tape is confirming strength. Negative = the tape is rejecting it.

Put simply: X is what the economy says about the sector; Y is what the market is doing about it.

The four quadrants

The two axes split the grid into four quadrants. Each one tells a different story:

Confidence score

Every sector also has a confidence score from 0 to 1 (shown as 0–100%). This is how much you should trust the dot's position.

• Higher confidence = more macro factors are sending active signals and the sector has real, recent ETF price history behind it.
• Lower confidence = thin signal, usually because the sector has been quiet or the macro factors are clustered around neutral.

Every row has a plain-English confidence reason explaining why the score landed where it did. Dots with confidence below 0.4 are rendered faded on the grid — treat them as low-signal until the score firms up.

AI narratives

Alongside the numbers, each sector has a short set of AI-written fields that explain what the numbers mean:

• Why this position — one or two sentences on why the sector landed in this quadrant today.
• What changed— one sentence on how the sector moved since yesterday (or “Initial positioning” on its first day).
• Dominant driver — the single biggest positive force acting on the sector right now.
• Dominant risk — the single biggest negative force acting on the sector right now.

All narratives are written at an 8th-grade reading level, capped at about 200 characters each, and grounded only in the numeric drivers — they can't invent facts. Always treat the numeric scores as the primary signal; the narrative is there to explain them in plain English.

Update cadence & smoothing

A fresh snapshot is generated every weeknight at 9:30 PM Eastern, Monday through Friday. Each run produces eleven sector rows plus scenario projections. Weekends and U.S. market holidays produce no new data — on those days the latest snapshot can lag the calendar by up to ~3 days.

Dots move deliberately slowly. Day-over-day moves are smoothed with a 70/30 blend (70% yesterday, 30% today) and hard-capped at ±0.15 per axis per day. No sector can jump more than about a third of the way across the grid in a single session.

Because of that, meaningful quadrant shifts usually take 3–5 trading sessions to play out. This is a swing / position tool, not a day-trading signal.

How to use it

There are three common ways investors use the map:

• Tactical tilts. Treat it as a sector-rotation dashboard. Sectors in Strengths are candidate overweights; sectors in Weaknesses are candidate underweights; sectors in Opportunities (strong internals despite macro headwinds) often flag the next leadership group; sectors in Threats flag late-cycle distribution risk where the macro still supports the sector but the tape has stopped rewarding it.
• Rotation tracking.The trajectory matters more than the static dot. A sector at (x = +0.20, y = +0.30) that's also drifting +0.08 on X and +0.10 on Y is a much stronger signal than the same static position drifting the other way. Watch the direction of travel.
• Scenario hedging. Use the scenario projections (below) to pre-select hedges or rotation candidates in case your preferred macro thesis plays out.

Scenario projections

Every run also precomputes six “what if today” shocks and shows where each sector would land if that shock hit right now:

• Hotter inflation — inflation re-accelerates and the Fed is forced to tighten further.
• Softer inflation — inflation cools faster than expected and the Fed can ease.
• Growth slowdown — GDP decelerates toward contraction and defensive sectors rotate in.
• Growth reacceleration — GDP surprises to the upside and cyclicals benefit.
• Fed dovish surprise — the Fed signals faster easing and rate-sensitive sectors benefit.
• Oil spike — a geopolitical supply shock drives oil higher.

For each scenario and each sector, the system shows how the dot would move, whether it would flip to a new quadrant, and the total distance of the move. Sectors that change quadrants are the ones most worth paying attention to under that scenario.

Scenarios are a thought experiment, not a forecast. They show the direction and rough magnitude of a move under a specific shock — treat them as a hedging checklist, not a probability-weighted prediction.

Limitations & caveats

• Not investment advice. Always.
• The model is deterministic and expert-calibrated, not machine-learned. The weights are hand-tuned; there is no backtest-driven optimization yet.
• Daily moves are capped at ±0.15 per axis — don't expect dramatic day-to-day repositioning even on big market days.
• History only starts January 2026. Multi-cycle comparisons are not yet possible.
• Sector level only. The map does not cover individual stocks, sub-industries, or international sectors.
• Weekends and market holidays have no new data — the latest snapshot can lag the calendar by up to ~3 days.
• Earnings revisions, valuation metrics, and market breadth are not yetin the model — they're planned for v3.
• The geopolitics factor is categorical (calm / elevated / active / escalating), not continuous — it can update suddenly when the weekly geopolitics pipeline repositions.

Sector SWOT FAQ

How often does the dot actually move?
Most sectors drift 0.02–0.10 per axis per day under normal conditions. The ±0.15 cap means noticeable quadrant shifts usually take multiple sessions unless the macro regime changes abruptly.

Why is a sector in “Strengths” even though its ETF is down today?
The Y-axis looks at the last ~252 trading days of relative performance, trend, and drawdown — not today's tape. A one-day sell-off rarely moves the needle. This is intentional.

Why is confidence low on a sector like Utilities right now?
Low confidence usually means one of: (a) the macro factor mix is neutral across the board with few non-zero signals, (b) the sector has been quiet in recent news and market events, or (c) upstream ETF analytics are missing recent observations. The confidence reason field spells it out for each row.

Can I trust the scenarios?
Scenarios are a “what if today” thought experiment, not a forecast. They show the direction and rough magnitude a sector would move under a specific shock. Treat them as a hedging checklist, not a prediction.

CPI — Consumer Prices

CPIis the Consumer Price Index — how fast the prices U.S. households pay are rising or falling. It's the headline inflation number most news stories quote, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The indicator page shows both headline CPI (everything) and core CPI (excluding food and energy, which bounce around), month-over-month and year-over-year. A component breakdown splits the inflation rate into goods, services, shelter, food, and energy so you can see which pieces are actually driving the number.

PCE — Personal Consumption

PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — the Fed's preferred inflation measure. It covers a slightly broader basket than CPI and weights categories by what people actually spend on, so it tends to track household behavior more closely. Published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The page mirrors the CPI layout: headline and core PCE, MoM / YoY, component breakdown, AI Headline / Summary / Momentum / Risk, and consensus expectations. If you want to know what the Fed is watching when they set rates, this is the number.

GDP — Growth

Real GDP is the broadest measure of how fast the U.S. economy is growing, quoted as an annualized real (inflation-adjusted) quarter-over-quarter rate. Published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. New quarters print as advance, second, and third estimates, which can move around as more data arrives.

The page shows the current growth rate and its trend, the AI brief, a full history chart, a drivers panel breaking growth into its components (consumer spending, investment, government, net exports), and consensus forecasts for the next release.

Labor Market

The Labor page is about the monthly employment picture. It leads with the U-3 unemployment rate — the headline unemployment number — along with its month-over-month and year-over-year change, plus the prime-age employment-to-population ratio and the labor force participation rate. All three are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

A labor health panel tracks secondary reads like youth unemployment and employment by education level. The page also carries the usual AI Headline / Summary / Momentum / Risk block, a multi-year chart, and consensus expectations for the next nonfarm payrolls report.

Jobless Claims

Jobless claimsis the count of people who filed for unemployment insurance last week. It's the fastest labor-market indicator we have — weekly instead of monthly — which makes it a useful early read on whether hiring is slowing or layoffs are picking up. Released every Thursday morning.

The page shows the latest weekly initial claims figure, trend, AI brief, a long-history chart (so you can compare to past cycles), and consensus expectations for the next release.

Fed Rates

Fed Rates tracks the federal funds rate — the interest rate the Federal Reserve sets, which shapes every other rate in the economy from mortgages to credit cards to Treasury bills. It only changes when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets, roughly eight times a year.

The page shows the current target range, how it's moved over time, the AI brief on current Fed stance, a drivers panel tying the rate back to the Fed's mandate (jobs and inflation), and a calendar of upcoming FOMC decision dates.

Yield Curve

The Yield Curve page is built around the 2-year vs. 10-year Treasury spread— the classic read on what the bond market thinks about the economy's future. When short-term rates trade above long-term rates (an inverted curve), bond investors are effectively pricing in slower growth ahead. Updated daily, based on U.S. Treasury data.

The page flags the current curve shape (normal, flat, or inverted), plots the spread over time, and includes the AI brief explaining what the current shape implies. Because Treasuries trade every business day, this is one of the few indicators that refreshes with a daily cadence.

Headline

A single sentence at the top of the page summarizing the current state of this indicator. It's meant to be the one line you'd read if that was all you had time for — “Inflation cooled again in March” or “Job growth slowed sharply last month,” grounded in the underlying numbers.

Summary

A short paragraph that expands on the headline with two or three sentences of context. It's where the headline gets its “why” — what drove the reading, what stands out vs. the prior release, and how it fits with the longer trend. The summary is always about the current reading, not the outlook.

Momentum insight

Where Headline and Summary describe the latest reading, Momentumis about the direction and pace of change. Is the number accelerating or decelerating? Has the rate of change stalled? Has a multi-month trend just reversed? Momentum is the place to look when you want to know not just where we are, but where we're heading.

Risk explainer

Riskcalls out what could go wrong — or what the reading means for downside scenarios. It's the companion to the risk-level badge on the Economy dashboard. If the headline CPI print came in cool but shelter is still hot, the risk explainer is the field that flags it.

How we keep AI honest

A few ground rules shape how we use AI on the site:

• Numbers come first. Every AI explanation sits next to the data it describes. The numbers are the primary signal; the AI text is there to translate them.
• Strict field contracts. The Headline, Summary, Momentum, and Risk labels each map to exactly one backend field. If a field is missing, you see a dash — never another field silently swapped in.
• Grounded, not free-form.Every narrative is generated from the numeric drivers on the page. It can't invent sources or make up numbers.
• A person in the loop. The weekly Macro Pulse edition and higher-stakes narratives are reviewed before they ship.
• You can always check the source. Every number on the site comes from a primary government or central-bank source — see Data Sources.