Current Regime
normalizing
Your weekly macro operating memo across growth, inflation, labor, policy, and risk.
Growth, inflation, labor, and policy are sending mixed signals this week, with Growth and Policy setting the near-term tone.
Bottom line: Real GDP growth is 1.40% QoQ SAAR and 2.23% YoY. Vs prior pulse, the state trend moved down by 3.000 on the selected signal basis.
Compact view of current conditions across growth, inflation, labor, and policy.
Direction and intensity of recent moves in each macro area. This is a compact visual, not a forecast.
Ranked by impact, with context and confidence.
Real GDP growth is 1.40% QoQ SAAR and 2.23% YoY. Vs prior pulse, the state trend moved down by 3.000 on the selected signal basis.
Source: BEA GDP • FRED
Policy midpoint is 3.625%, and the last 30-day change is 0.000 ppts. Vs prior pulse, the state trend was sideways (0.000) on the selected signal basis.
Source: Federal Reserve • FRED
Core inflation is 2.51% YoY with 3m annualized trend at 2.91%. Vs prior pulse, the state trend was sideways (0.000) on the selected signal basis.
Source: BLS CPI • BEA PCE
Unemployment is 4.30% and initial claims 4wma is 220250. Vs prior pulse, the state trend moved down by 0.084 on the selected signal basis.
Source: BLS Employment Situation • DOL Jobless Claims
Recent shifts in key macro drivers. This feed updates as new releases are processed.
Unemployment is 4.30% and initial claims 4wma is 220250. Vs prior pulse, the state trend moved down by 0.084 on the selected signal basis.
The 10Y-2Y spread is 60.0 bps and curve status is normal. Vs prior pulse, the state trend was sideways (0.000) on the selected signal basis.
Indicator signals are generated from structured macro inputs and ranked by modeled impact.
The 10Y-2Y spread is 60.0 bps and curve status is normal. Vs prior pulse, the state trend was sideways (0.000) on the selected signal basis.
Source: US Treasury • Federal Reserve H.15
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