Real GDPQuarterlyIQ Brief

Snapshot of the latest US growth print, key drivers, and near-term outlook.

Last release: 2026-02-20

Period: 2025Q4 · Source: BEA – GDP · Frequency: quarterly

HEADLINE METRIC

1.4%

Real GDP, QoQ SAAR (SA)

Gdp Update (2025 Q4)

Underlying Momentum

QoQ Change-3.0 ppts

3Q Avg Growth3.2%

YoY Growth2.2%

The latest structured indicators were processed, while narrative fields were normalized due to malformed model output.

Risk

Risk: LOW

Why LOW:

Risk is LOW: estimated 12.0% chance of negative GDP next quarter, with 90% CI +/-4.0 ppts.

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Snapshot

GDP growth is cooling versus last quarter.
Growth is running below its recent pace.
The biggest boost came from Real PCE, nondurable goods (chained 2017 dollars, SAAR).
The biggest drag came from Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment (chained 2017 dollars, SAAR).
The change is spread across multiple areas, which tends to be more durable.

Trend

Primary trend view for real GDP growth. History range matches the standard GDP detail page default.

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Real GDP tracks inflation-adjusted output across the economy. Quarter-on-quarter annualized growth highlights near-term momentum, while year-over-year growth helps separate signal from noise over longer horizons.

What changed

When growth cools, hiring and spending often become more cautious, which can slow income gains.
A broader driver mix reduces the risk that one sector reversal changes the whole picture.
Multiple areas are subtracting from growth, which can show up as softer demand.

Drivers

Top contributors to quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth. Positive bars add to growth; negative bars subtract from it.

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Implications

Investing

What may become easier

Stable but decelerating growth below trend suggests earnings growth will be modest, favoring investments in sectors with steady cash flows rather than cyclical expansions.
Credit spreads are unlikely to tighten significantly, supporting selective investment in quality credit instruments with moderate rate sensitivity.

What may become harder

Decelerating momentum and growth below trend reduce the likelihood of broad earnings upgrades, complicating sector rotation strategies reliant on strong cyclical rebounds.

Where to be cautious

Lack of positive breadth signals concentrated growth risks, so investors should monitor for potential volatility in sectors currently supporting GDP.
Slowing growth momentum advises caution in rate-sensitive sectors as monetary policy may remain restrictive to address inflation risks.

What to watch next

Corporate earnings revisions to detect shifts in profitability trends amid slowing GDP growth.
Credit spread movements as an early indicator of changing risk appetite in fixed income markets.

Job security & wages

Savings & cash

Real estate & housing

Debt

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Forward Outlook

Forward-looking signals from the GDP consensus and model scorecard.

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Snapshot

GDP growth is cooling versus last quarter.

Growth is running below its recent pace.

The biggest boost came from Real PCE, nondurable goods (chained 2017 dollars, SAAR).

The biggest drag came from Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment (chained 2017 dollars, SAAR).

The change is spread across multiple areas, which tends to be more durable.

Trend

Primary trend view for real GDP growth. History range matches the standard GDP detail page default.

Loading charts…

Implications

Investing

What may become easier

Stable but decelerating growth below trend suggests earnings growth will be modest, favoring investments in sectors with steady cash flows rather than cyclical expansions.
Credit spreads are unlikely to tighten significantly, supporting selective investment in quality credit instruments with moderate rate sensitivity.

What may become harder

Decelerating momentum and growth below trend reduce the likelihood of broad earnings upgrades, complicating sector rotation strategies reliant on strong cyclical rebounds.

Where to be cautious

Lack of positive breadth signals concentrated growth risks, so investors should monitor for potential volatility in sectors currently supporting GDP.
Slowing growth momentum advises caution in rate-sensitive sectors as monetary policy may remain restrictive to address inflation risks.

What to watch next

Corporate earnings revisions to detect shifts in profitability trends amid slowing GDP growth.
Credit spread movements as an early indicator of changing risk appetite in fixed income markets.

Job security & wages

Savings & cash

Real estate & housing

Debt

Included in Pro — preview