Inflation (CPI)QuarterlyIQ Brief

Snapshot of the latest US inflation print, key drivers, and near-term outlook.

Last release: 2026-04-10

Period: Headline CPI, NSA (YoY) · Source: BLS – CPI-U · Frequency: monthly

HEADLINE METRIC

3.3%

YoY Headline CPI

CPI inflation rose to 3.3% from 2.4%

Underlying Momentum

Core MoM (SA)0.30%

Core Services MoM0.39%

Shelter YoY3.02%

Overall inflation jumped to 3.3%, but core prices rose 0.2% compared to last month and the three-month core trend stayed at 2.9%.

Risk

Risk: MODERATE

Why MODERATE:

The main risk is that the jump in overall inflation could last longer if core prices do not cool further. Core prices still rose 0.2% compared to last month, and the three-month core trend at 2.9% is still above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.

Snapshot

Inflation momentum is picking up versus recent months.
Inflation is running above the Fed's 2% target.

Trend

Primary trend view for headline vs core CPI. History range matches the standard CPI detail page default.

Year-over-year inflation

OverheatingCore: Sticky

Headline CPI includes all components; core excludes food and energy. Sustained readings near 2% are broadly consistent with the Fed's inflation goal.

Core momentum

Short-run core inflation trends (MoM and 3- to 6-month annualized). Sustained readings near 2% suggest inflation is near target; persistently above ~3% or below ~0% can signal overheating or disinflation risk.

What changed

When inflation accelerates, real purchasing power can erode faster unless wages keep up.
Above-target inflation keeps pressure on the Fed to stay cautious or tight.

Drivers

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Implications

Investing

What may become easier

In 2026-03, core inflation momentum looks stable, with core CPI at 0.2% month over month seasonally adjusted and 2.86% on a 3-month annualized basis. That keeps the next 1-2 quarters more supportive for assets that benefit from a steadier rates path because policy expectations are less likely to swing sharply.
Core services inflation at 0.23% month over month seasonally adjusted suggests underlying price pressure is not re-accelerating even though headline CPI rose 0.87% in the month. That can make earnings outlooks easier to interpret over the next 1-2 quarters because financing costs and input-cost assumptions are less likely to reset abruptly.

What may become harder

Headline CPI at 3.29% year over year and 0.87% month over month raises the risk that market rates stay elevated if investors focus on the inflation level rather than the steadier core trend. That makes valuation expansion harder over the next 1-3 months, especially in rate-sensitive areas.
While core momentum is stable, inflation is still above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation objective, which can keep real discount rates restrictive. That makes it harder over the next 6-12 months for markets to price an early or aggressive easing cycle.

Where to be cautious

Stable core momentum reduces the odds of a broad inflation shock, though a large headline monthly increase can still lift bond volatility through energy, goods, or inflation-expectation channels. That keeps the next 1-3 months sensitive to incoming inflation details rather than just the headline print.
Shelter inflation at 3.02% year over year indicates one major service category is still running above the policy target pace. That warrants caution over the next 1-2 quarters because persistent shelter pressure can slow the decline in real yields and keep rate-sensitive sectors uneven.

What to watch next

No items.

Job security & wages

Savings & cash

Real estate & housing

Debt

Forward Outlook

Forward-looking signals from the CPI consensus and model scorecard.

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Calendar

Recent releases

CPI

Apr 10, 2026 • 12:30 PM UTC• BLS_CPI_U

CPI

Mar 11, 2026 • 12:30 PM UTC• BLS_CPI_U

CPI

Feb 13, 2026 • 1:30 PM UTC• BLS_CPI_U

CPI

Jan 13, 2026 • 1:30 PM UTC• BLS_CPI_U

CPI

Dec 18, 2025 • 8:30 AM UTC• BLS_CPI_U

Upcoming releases

CPI

May 12, 2026 • 12:30 PM UTC• BLS_CPI_U

CPI

Jun 10, 2026 • 12:30 PM UTC• BLS_CPI_U

CPI

Jul 14, 2026 • 12:30 PM UTC• BLS_CPI_U

CPI

Aug 12, 2026 • 12:30 PM UTC• BLS_CPI_U

CPI

Sep 11, 2026 • 12:30 PM UTC• BLS_CPI_U

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