Snapshot of key Treasury spreads, inversion depth and duration, and near-term curve risk.
Period: Aug 28, 2026 · Source: US Treasury · Frequency: Daily
Primary trend view for the 10Y-2Y and 3m10y curve spreads.
| Driver | Level | 30d change | Risk contribution | Inversion streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y-3M Treasury yield spread (bps) | 83 bps | +13 bps | -83 bps | No |
| 10Y-2Y Treasury yield spread (bps) | 39 bps | +2 bps | -39 bps | No |
| U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (%) | 4.73% | +0.18 ppts | 0 bps | No |
| U.S. 2-year Treasury yield (%) | 4.34% | +0.16 ppts | 0 bps | No |
Consensus path for the 10Y-2Y spread and model quality signals.
| Indicator | Why it matters | If improving | If weakening |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y-2Y spread | This shows whether short-term Treasury rates are above or below longer-term rates. On 2026-08-28 it was positive by 39 bps (one hundredth of a percentage point (25 bps = 0.25%)), which is a normal shape. | A wider positive gap suggests the curve is staying normal and not sending the same warning as an upside-down curve. | A move toward zero or below zero would mean short-term rates are getting close to or above long-term rates, which is unusual. |
| 3M-10Y spread | This compares very short-term Treasury rates with 10-year rates. On 2026-08-28 it was positive by 83 bps, which supports the normal reading. | A steady or wider positive gap suggests less concern from this part of the curve. | A fast drop toward zero or below zero would be a more cautious signal about growth and rates ahead. |
| Curve status | The curve status was normal on 2026-08-28. That means longer-term Treasury rates were above shorter-term rates. | If it stays normal, the bond market keeps avoiding an upside-down warning signal. | If it turns inverted, short-term rates would be higher than long-term rates, which is unusual. |
| Days inverted (2s/10s) | This counts how long the gap between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury rate has been upside-down. It was 0 days on 2026-08-28. | Staying at 0 days means that warning sign is not active right now. | If the count starts rising, it would show the curve has flipped back into an unusual shape. |
| Days inverted (3M/10Y) | This counts how long 3-month Treasury rates have been above 10-year rates. It was 0 days on 2026-08-28. | Staying at 0 days supports the view that this part of the curve is normal. | If the count rises, it would show short-term rates have moved above long-term rates again. |
