Snapshot of key Treasury spreads, inversion depth and duration, and near-term curve risk.
Period: May 29, 2026 · Source: US Treasury · Frequency: Daily
Primary trend view for the 10Y-2Y and 3m10y curve spreads.
| Driver | Level | 30d change | Risk contribution | Inversion streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y-3M Treasury yield spread (bps) | 76 bps | +14 bps | -76 bps | No |
| 10Y-2Y Treasury yield spread (bps) | 47 bps | -7 bps | -47 bps | No |
| U.S. 2-year Treasury yield (%) | 3.98% | +0.20 ppts | 0 bps | No |
| U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (%) | 4.45% | +0.13 ppts | 0 bps | No |
Consensus path for the 10Y-2Y spread and model quality signals.
| Indicator | Why it matters | If improving | If weakening |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y-2Y spread | This shows whether longer Treasury rates stay above shorter ones. A positive gap is the usual pattern and suggests less bond-market stress than an upside-down curve. | The gap stays above zero or widens a bit. That would mean the curve remains normal. | The gap shrinks toward zero or turns negative. That would mean short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, which is unusual. |
| 3M-10Y spread | This compares very short Treasury rates with longer ones. People watch it because it has often been a strong warning sign when it turns upside-down. | The gap stays above zero. That would mean the curve keeps a normal shape. | The gap falls to zero or below. That would mean short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, which is unusual. |
| Curve status | This gives the simple big picture of whether the curve is normal or upside-down. On 2026-05-29, it was normal. | It stays normal for a longer stretch. That would show the current reading is holding up. | It flips back to inverted. That would mean short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, which is unusual. |
| Days inverted | This shows whether an upside-down curve is lasting or just a brief move. On 2026-05-29, both key gaps had 0 inverted days. | The count stays at 0. That would mean the curve is not spending time upside-down. | The count starts rising. That would mean an upside-down curve is lasting longer, which markets often treat as a warning sign. |
