Snapshot of key Treasury spreads, inversion depth and duration, and near-term curve risk.
Period: Oct 14, 2026 · Source: US Treasury · Frequency: Daily
Primary trend view for the 10Y-2Y and 3m10y curve spreads.
| Driver | Level | 30d change | Risk contribution | Inversion streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y-3M Treasury yield spread (bps) | 91 bps | +7 bps | -91 bps | No |
| 10Y-2Y Treasury yield spread (bps) | 37 bps | -4 bps | -37 bps | No |
| U.S. 2-year Treasury yield (%) | 4.82% | +0.48 ppts | 0 bps | No |
| U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (%) | 5.19% | +0.44 ppts | 0 bps | No |
Consensus path for the 10Y-2Y spread and model quality signals.
| Indicator | Why it matters | If improving | If weakening |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y-2Y spread | This shows whether longer Treasury rates stay above shorter ones in the usual way. On 2026-10-14, the gap was 0.37 percentage points, which points to a normal curve. | The gap stays above zero or widens a bit. That would suggest the bond market still expects steadier growth. | The gap shrinks toward zero or turns negative. That would mean short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, which is unusual, and can signal rising slowdown worries. |
| 3M-10Y spread | This compares very short-term Treasury rates with longer-term rates. On 2026-10-14, the gap was 0.91 percentage points, which is a normal reading. | The gap stays clearly above zero. That would suggest the market is not expecting an immediate sharp slowdown. | The gap falls toward zero or below it. That would be a stronger warning that growth expectations are weakening. |
| Curve status | This gives the simple shape of the yield curve. A normal reading is easier for households to live with than an upside-down curve. | The curve stays normal for a while. That would mean the bond market is not sending a classic recession warning. | The curve turns inverted, which means short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, which is unusual. That would raise concern about future growth and jobs. |
| Days inverted (2s/10s) | This tracks whether the 2-year vs 10-year gap has stayed upside-down over time. On 2026-10-14, it was 0 days, so there was no ongoing inversion. | The count stays at 0. That would show the curve is not slipping back into a warning pattern. | The count starts rising. That would mean the upside-down pattern is lasting, not just appearing for a day. |