Yield CurveQuarterlyIQ Brief

Snapshot of key Treasury spreads, inversion depth and duration, and near-term curve risk.

Last Value Date: Jul 15, 2026

Period: Jul 15, 2026 · Source: US Treasury · Frequency: Daily

HEADLINE METRIC

42bps 10Y-2Y

Long-term Treasury rates stayed above short-term rates

The day barely changed, but the bigger picture still shows longer-term bond rates well above short-term ones.

Underlying Momentum

3m10y spread+72 bps

Curve statusNORMAL

Days inverted (10Y-2Y)0

13-week trend (10Y-2Y)Flat

The line showing interest rates for US government bonds of different lengths is staying normal, with the biggest gap still between very short and longer rates.

Risk

Risk: LOW

Why LOW:

Long-term rates near 4.45% to 4.99% can keep mortgages and other borrowing costs high. If short-term rates rise faster than long-term rates again, this normal shape could narrow and send a weaker growth signal.

Snapshot

The 10Y-2Y yield spread is 42 bps, and the 3M-10Y spread is 72 bps.

Trend

Primary trend view for the 10Y-2Y and 3m10y curve spreads.

History

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Why it matters

The shape of the yield curve can signal how investors see future growth and recession risk.

Drivers

Latest period: 2026-07-15

Driver	Level	30d change	Risk contribution	Inversion streak
10Y-3M Treasury yield spread (bps)	72 bps	+3 bps	-72 bps	No
10Y-2Y Treasury yield spread (bps)	42 bps	0 bps	-42 bps	No
U.S. 2-year Treasury yield (%)	4.13%	+0.08 ppts	0 bps	No
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (%)	4.55%	+0.08 ppts	0 bps	No

Forward Outlook

Consensus path for the 10Y-2Y spread and model quality signals.

Forecast path (10Y-2Y spread)

2026-07-09: 36 bps
2026-08-07: 36 bps
2026-09-07: 39 bps

Confidence band (90% CI · high)

±15 bps

>Model quality (click to expand/collapse)

Primary forecast: 36 bps
Confidence band (90% CI): ±15 bps
MAE (bps, ex-NONE): 2.67
Directional accuracy (ex-NONE): 98%
Backtest window: 2021-04-30 to 2026-07-09
Backtest observations: 64

What to Watch Next

Indicator	Why it matters	If improving	If weakening
10Y-2Y spread	This shows whether longer-term Treasury rates stay above shorter-term rates. A move below zero would be an unusual warning sign.	The gap stays above zero or widens modestly. That keeps the curve in a normal shape.	The gap falls toward zero or below zero. That means short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, which is unusual.
3M-10Y spread	This compares very short-term rates with 10-year rates. People watch it because it can show when bond investors expect weaker growth ahead.	The gap stays above zero. That suggests the bond market is not sending the same warning as an upside-down curve.	The gap drops toward zero or below zero. That would show growing concern about slower growth.
Curve status	This is the simple read on the curve shape. Normal is the usual pattern, while upside-down is unusual.	It stays normal. That means long-term rates remain above short-term rates.	It turns inverted. That means short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, which is unusual.
Days inverted (2s/10s)	This tracks how long the 2-year vs 10-year gap stays upside-down. Longer periods can matter more than a one-day move.	It stays at 0 days or near zero. That means the unusual warning sign is not sticking around.	It starts rising and keeps rising. That means the upside-down pattern is lasting longer.

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