Snapshot of the current Fed funds stance, policy path probabilities, and near-term rate risk.
Period: 2026-02-26 · Source: Fed – FOMC · Frequency: daily
Primary trend view for the effective Fed funds rate and its target band.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Stance | Neutral-ish Gap to neutral: +0.14 ppts |
| Real policy rate | 0.64% |
| Est. real neutral (r*) | 0.50% |
| Expected next-meeting rate | 3.71% |
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Core PCE (3m SAAR) | 3.1% Fed target reference: 2.0% | Trending Down |
| Core PCE (YoY) | 3.0% Fed target reference: 2.0% | Sideways |
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Unemployment | 4.3% | Sideways |
| Payroll growth (3m avg) | +73k / month (3m avg) | Trending Up |
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| 10Y real yield | 1.83% | Trending Up |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Headline CPI (YoY) | 3.0% |
| Real GDP (QoQ SAAR) | 1.4% |
Primary view: next meeting cut/hold/hike odds and what would change the decision.
Meeting-by-meeting cut/hold/hike odds from FOMC probability views.
Forward-looking signals from the Fed path consensus and model scorecard.
Market-implied near-term Fed path, confidence band proxy, and model metadata.
Formal backtest-quality metrics are not yet provided for the Fed path panel; confidence and interval fields are sourced from the rates consensus/model views.
