Reading BJRI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance compared to sector peers, where BJRI is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $51.61. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $52 BJRI trades at 23× p/e, in line with its 21× p/e peer median. Our $54 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $38–$43. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 4% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.99x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.89 → $0.83 (-6.9% / 30d). 2 raised, 5 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 27% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$165.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$378.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,867.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This would indicate a slowdown in sales momentum and could raise concerns about future growth.
Confirms:Comparable restaurant sales grew less than 1% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Comparable restaurant sales grew more than 3% for Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BJRI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, BJ’s Restaurants, Inc., a California corporation (the “Registrant” or the “Company”), announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release issued by the Registrant in connection with the announcement is attached to this report as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$38.00 – $43.00 (median $42.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-07
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Restaurants.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BJRI BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | moderate |
SBUX Starbucks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
YUM Yum! Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims for comparable restaurant sales growth between 1% and 3% for fiscal 2026.
Targeting restaurant level operating profit between $221 million and $233 million for fiscal 2026.
Plan to allocate capital expenditures between $85 million and $95 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Falling below this number could show problems and affect profits.
Confirms:Restaurant profit was below $221 million for fiscal 2026.
Disproves:Restaurant profit was above $233 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: This shows strong cash flow and management's faith in the company.
Confirms:Share buybacks were above $50 million during fiscal 2026.
Disproves:No share buybacks or a big cut in planned buybacks.
Why it matters: This may mean the company faces problems or costs that hurt profits.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA was below $140 million for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA was above $150 million for Q2 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On April 10, 2026, BJ’s Restaurants, Inc. (the “Company”) announced the appointment of Ashley A. Van as the Company’s Senior Vice President and Principal Accounting Officer effective May 11, 2026. Ms. Van has served as the Senior Vice President of Accounting at Reformation, a sustainable women’s clothing and accessory company, since September 2025.…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, BJ’s Restaurants, Inc., a California corporation (the “Registrant” or the “Company”), announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 30, 2025. The press release issued by the Registrant in connection with the announcement is attached to this report as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this