BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI)

Q: What's priced into BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI) stock?

The valuation is expensive versus peers, reflecting a durable premium and expectations that are modestly ahead of the model’s baseline. The evidence labels that premium justified, with low signs of fragility, but the expectations gap leaves room for disappointment if execution weakens.

Q: What does the BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI) outlook hinge on?

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued profit and margin progress, stronger comparable sales, and management maintaining its recently raised guidance. Sector conditions are another swing factor: continued strength among major restaurant peers could support the backdrop, while weaker results or guidance could remove that tailwind.

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$56.51-3.88%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge BJ's Restaurants, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.74 → 2.70 EPS · FY ending Dec 30, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	365.79M
EPS	—	0.712
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.46B
EPS	—	2.37
Capital expenditure	$85M–$95M	—
Comparable Restaurant comparable sales growth	3%–4%non-GAAP	—
EBITDA	$145M–$152Mnon-GAAP	—
Operating income	$228M–$235M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.52B
EPS	—	2.703

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditure between $85M and $95M	A supporting condition in BJ's Restaurants, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $85M to $95M.	Intact	capital expenditure exceeds $95M or falls below $85M in FY26	Capital expenditures: $24.69M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $85M to $95M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 202624,690,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Comparable restaurant sales growth of 1% to 3%	A primary condition in BJ's Restaurants, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1% and <=3% YoY.	Intact	comparable restaurant sales growth falls below 1% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Restaurant level operating profit between $221M and $233M	Restaurant profit aims for $221M to $233M in 2026.	Intact	restaurant level operating profit falls below $221M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-30 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.70

$2.65 → $2.70 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.52B

$1.50B → $1.52B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.65	$1,495,433,877	6 / 8
2026-07-25	$2.65	$1,495,433,877	6 / 8
2026-07-26	$2.65	$1,495,977,677	6 / 8
2026-07-27	$2.65	$1,495,977,677	6 / 8
2026-07-28	$2.65	$1,495,977,677	6 / 8
2026-07-29	$2.66	$1,497,370,477	6 / 8
2026-07-30	$2.66	$1,497,370,477	6 / 8
2026-07-31	$2.68	$1,501,643,277	6 / 8
2026-08-01	$2.68	$1,501,643,277	6 / 8
2026-08-02	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-03	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-04	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-05	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-06	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-07	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-08	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-09	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-10	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-11	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-12	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-13	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-14	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-15	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	6 / 8
2026-08-16	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	6 / 8
2026-08-17	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	6 / 8
2026-08-18	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	6 / 8
2026-08-19	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	6 / 8
2026-08-20	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-08-21	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-08-22	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-08-23	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-08-24	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-08-25	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-08-26	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-08-27	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-08-28	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-08-29	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-08-30	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-08-31	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-09-01	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-09-02	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-09-03	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-09-04	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-09-05	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-09-06	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-09-07	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-09-08	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-09-09	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-09-10	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-09-11	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-12	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-13	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-14	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-15	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-16	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-17	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-18	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-19	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-20	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-21	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-22	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-23	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-24	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-25	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-26	$2.72	$1,515,847,488	6 / 8
2026-09-27	$2.72	$1,515,847,488	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$2.72	$1,515,847,488	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$2.72	$1,515,847,488	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$2.72	$1,515,847,488	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$2.72	$1,515,847,488	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$2.72	$1,516,801,710	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$2.72	$1,516,801,710	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$2.72	$1,516,801,710	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$2.72	$1,516,801,710	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$2.72	$1,516,801,710	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$2.72	$1,516,801,710	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$2.71	$1,517,365,732	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$2.71	$1,517,365,732	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$2.71	$1,517,365,732	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$2.70	$1,517,365,732	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	7	1
2026-06-01	3	7	1
2026-07-01	4	7	1
2026-08-01	4	6	0
2026-09-01	4	6	0
2026-10-01	5	5	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 1 · prior Jul 31

$74.00 → $76.00+2.7%

$0$41.80$83.60

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditure between $85M and $95MCapital expenditures: $24.69M
Comparable restaurant sales growth of 1% to 3%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Restaurant level operating profit between $221M and $233MDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

BJ's Restaurants, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

BJRI is an operating-improvement story, with recent results and profit margins strengthening. The long-term thesis is intact and has recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though management execution is neutral overall.

What's priced into BJ's Restaurants, Inc.

The valuation is expensive versus peers, reflecting a durable premium and expectations that are modestly ahead of the model’s baseline. The evidence labels that premium justified, with low signs of fragility, but the expectations gap leaves room for disappointment if execution weakens.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, restaurant-level operating profit and margin have improved, while comparable restaurant sales growth remains a priority to watch. Management has kept 2026 capital-spending guidance stable, though that priority is rated mixed; recent results are strong, but an earlier earnings miss and peer misses add some risk.

What BJ's Restaurants, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued profit and margin progress, stronger comparable sales, and management maintaining its recently raised guidance. Sector conditions are another swing factor: continued strength among major restaurant peers could support the backdrop, while weaker results or guidance could remove that tailwind.

Bottom line

For a 1-to-3-year view, BJRI’s improving operating results support an intact thesis, while its expensive valuation makes sustained execution important. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	365.79M
EPS	—	0.712
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.46B
EPS	—	2.37
Capital expenditure	$85M–$95M	—
Comparable Restaurant comparable sales growth	3%–4%non-GAAP	—
EBITDA	$145M–$152Mnon-GAAP	—
Operating income	$228M–$235M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.52B
EPS	—	2.703

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-30 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.70

$2.65 → $2.70 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.52B

$1.50B → $1.52B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.65	$1,495,433,877	6 / 8
2026-07-25	$2.65	$1,495,433,877	6 / 8
2026-07-26	$2.65	$1,495,977,677	6 / 8
2026-07-27	$2.65	$1,495,977,677	6 / 8
2026-07-28	$2.65	$1,495,977,677	6 / 8
2026-07-29	$2.66	$1,497,370,477	6 / 8
2026-07-30	$2.66	$1,497,370,477	6 / 8
2026-07-31	$2.68	$1,501,643,277	6 / 8
2026-08-01	$2.68	$1,501,643,277	6 / 8
2026-08-02	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-03	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-04	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-05	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-06	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-07	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-08	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-09	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-10	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-11	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-12	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-13	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-14	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	5 / 8
2026-08-15	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	6 / 8
2026-08-16	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	6 / 8
2026-08-17	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	6 / 8
2026-08-18	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	6 / 8
2026-08-19	$2.73	$1,514,810,639	6 / 8
2026-08-20	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-08-21	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-08-22	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-08-23	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-08-24	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-08-25	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-08-26	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-08-27	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-08-28	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-08-29	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-08-30	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-08-31	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-09-01	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-09-02	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-09-03	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-09-04	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-09-05	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-09-06	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-09-07	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-09-08	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-09-09	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-09-10	$2.73	$1,517,134,639	6 / 8
2026-09-11	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-12	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-13	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-14	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-15	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-16	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-17	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-18	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-19	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-20	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-21	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-22	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-23	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-24	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-25	$2.74	$1,517,382,739	6 / 8
2026-09-26	$2.72	$1,515,847,488	6 / 8
2026-09-27	$2.72	$1,515,847,488	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$2.72	$1,515,847,488	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$2.72	$1,515,847,488	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$2.72	$1,515,847,488	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$2.72	$1,515,847,488	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$2.72	$1,516,151,710	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$2.72	$1,516,801,710	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$2.72	$1,516,801,710	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$2.72	$1,516,801,710	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$2.72	$1,516,801,710	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$2.72	$1,516,801,710	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$2.72	$1,516,801,710	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$2.71	$1,517,365,732	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$2.71	$1,517,365,732	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$2.71	$1,517,365,732	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$2.70	$1,517,365,732	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings