Reading YUM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track YUM free→Reading YUM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track YUM free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been volatile, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which adds to the risk profile. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, YUM trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $157.74. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $158 YUM trades at 25× p/e, in line with its 21× p/e peer median. Our $135 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $168–$185. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 17% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.16x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.57 → $1.57 (+0.2% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 24 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 26.2% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$86.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$204.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,283.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in same-store sales growth could signal weakening demand for Yum! Brands' products.
Confirms:Q2 same-store sales grew less than 5%.
Disproves:Q2 same-store sales growth reported at or above 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Selling Pizza Hut could streamline operations and enhance focus.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Chief Operating Officer and Chief People & Culture Officer Transition and Retirement On June 2, 2026, YUM! Brands, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Tracy Skeans will transition from her roles as Chief Operating Officer and Chief People & Culture Officer effective on November 1, 2026 (the “Transition Date”). Ms. Skeans will remain employed as a S…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$168.00 – $185.00 (median $177.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Restaurants.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
YUM Yum! Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | full | moderate |
SBUX Starbucks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
DRI Darden Restaurants | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | full | moderate |
13 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Yum! Brands aims to increase its unit count by 5% annually.
Yum! Brands targets a 7% growth in system sales, excluding foreign exchange impacts.
Yum! Brands aims for at least 8% growth in core operating profit annually.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects consumer spending, which impacts Yum! Brands' sales.
Confirms one read:GDP growth reported above 2% in the second estimate.
Confirms the other:GDP growth reported below 1%.
Why it matters: A drop in Taco Bell's same-store sales growth could signal weakening demand in a key brand.
Confirms:Taco Bell same-store sales growth reported below 7% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Taco Bell same-store sales growth reported at or above 7% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Exceeding unit growth targets would show Yum! Brands is expanding effectively despite market headwinds.
Confirms:Reported unit growth in Q2 exceeds 5%.
Disproves:Unit growth reported below 5% in Q2.
Why it matters: An 8% growth in core operating profit shows better cost control and more profit.
Confirms:Q2 core operating profit growth reported at or above 8%.
Disproves:In Q2, core operating profit growth was below 8%.
Why it matters: KFC's unit growth is crucial for overall expansion. A slowdown could impact future sales.
Confirms:KFC unit growth reported below 5% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:KFC unit growth reported at or above 5% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting the 7% sales growth target shows strong sales across all brands.
Confirms:Q2 system sales growth reported at or above 7%.
Disproves:Q2 system sales growth reported below 7%.
Why it matters: A drop in digital sales mix could suggest a shift away from tech-driven sales strategies.
Confirms:Digital sales mix reported below 60% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Digital sales mix reported at or above 60% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Positive growth for Pizza Hut could indicate a turnaround for a struggling brand.
Confirms:Pizza Hut's sales at existing stores grew in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Pizza Hut same-store sales growth remains negative for Q2 2026.
Advances: Achieve 5% Unit Growth
Sale aligns with growth strategy and reduces underperforming assets.
Advances: Achieve 5% Unit Growth
Divestiture allows for better focus on growth objectives.
Advances: Achieve 5% Unit Growth
Divestment supports focus on higher growth opportunities.
Advances: Achieve 5% Unit Growth
Ending underperforming chain supports growth targets.
Sale of Pizza Hut enhances focus on core brands.
Threatens: Achieve 5% Unit Growth
Sale of Pizza Hut impacts unit growth potential.
Advances: Achieve 5% Unit Growth
Strategic sale enhances growth potential for remaining brands.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 29, 2026, YUM! Brands, Inc. ( “ YUM ” ) issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (d) On March 26, 2026, the Board of Directors of Yum! Brands, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Kathleen K. Oberg as a director. Her appointment is effective April 1, 2026, and she will stand for election to the Board by shareholders at the Company’s next Annual Meeting. As of the date of this filing, Ms. Oberg has not been appointed to a committee of…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 10, 2026, Keith Barr, a member of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Yum! Brands Inc. ("YUM" or the "Company") informed the Company that he will resign from the Board effective as of that date. Mr. Barr’s resignation was not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to its operations, policies, or pract…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 4, 2026, Yum! Brands, Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. Section 9 – Financial Statements and Exhibits