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Track YUM free→Yum! Brands (YUM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$157.74+1.98%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been volatile, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which adds to the risk profile. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, YUM trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Market cap
- $42.53B
- Employees
- 49,000
- IPO date
- 1997-10-21
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $157.74. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$134.66consensus
Range $92.55 – $154.24
vs price: +17% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$181.41consensus
Range $138.92 – $231.01
vs price: -13% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $158 YUM trades at 25× p/e, in line with its 21× p/e peer median. Our $135 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $168–$185. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
24.5x
peer 20.9x · own history 26.7x
Premium
1.2x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
17%
our forecast 14%
Our fair value
$134.66
range $92.26 – $154.24
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 17% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
81st pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.16x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
26th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish24 analysts, 43% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.57 → $1.57 (+0.2% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 24 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 26.2% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$86.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$204.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,283.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 11d
Watch for Q2 same-store sales growth below 5%
Why it matters: A drop in same-store sales growth could signal weakening demand for Yum! Brands' products.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 same-store sales grew less than 5%.
Disproves:Q2 same-store sales growth reported at or above 5%.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-1615h agoCNBC
Selling Pizza Hut could streamline operations and enhance focus.
Strongly reinforcesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MCD, SBUX, and CMG keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting YUM and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If YUM raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If YUM cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like MCD, SBUX, and CMG start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping YUM and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits YUM and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0215d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Chief Operating Officer and Chief People & Culture Officer Transition and Retirement On June 2, 2026, YUM! Brands, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Tracy Skeans will transition from her roles as Chief Operating Officer and Chief People & Culture Officer effective on November 1, 2026 (the “Transition Date”). Ms. Skeans will remain employed as a S…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.8 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.