Yum! Brands (YUM)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$150.51-0.21%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Yum! Brands’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.26 → 7.17 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Effective use of capital including share buybacks	It returns capital to shareholders through buybacks.	Intact	No buybacks or capital return increases in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve 8% core operating profit growth	A primary condition in Yum! Brands's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY core operating profit growth.	Under Pressure	core operating profit growth falls below 4% YoY in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Core Operating Profit growth was 5% in 2026-Q2 and 6% in 2026-Q1, below the 8% target. Management has consistently reiterated this goal, but recent results show limited progress toward the stated growth rate. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve 7% system sales growth excluding FX	It aims for 7% system sales growth and 8% profit growth.	Intact	system sales growth falls below 4% YoY in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. System sales growth excluding foreign currency translation was 5% in 2026-Q2 and 6% in 2026-Q1, slightly below the 7% target but showing steady progress. The trajectory is delivering but slightly below the stated goal. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve 5% annual unit growth	A primary condition in Yum! Brands's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY unit growth.	Intact	unit growth falls below 3% YoY in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Unit count grew approximately 5% year-over-year, with 1,053 gross new units added in 2026-Q2 and 1,030 in 2026-Q1. This consistent unit growth aligns with management's stated target and shows delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.17

$7.39 → $7.17 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$9.15B

$9.50B → $9.15B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.39	$9,499,980,058	13 / 15
2026-07-25	$7.46	$9,664,433,100	21 / 19
2026-07-26	$7.39	$9,499,980,058	13 / 15
2026-07-27	$7.46	$9,664,433,100	21 / 19
2026-07-28	$7.39	$9,499,980,058	13 / 15
2026-07-29	$7.39	$9,499,980,058	13 / 15
2026-07-30	$7.45	$9,656,761,180	21 / 19
2026-07-31	$7.45	$9,641,513,810	21 / 19
2026-08-01	$7.35	$9,421,158,236	13 / 15
2026-08-02	$7.37	$9,456,934,758	13 / 16
2026-08-03	$7.39	$9,521,420,240	21 / 20
2026-08-04	$7.39	$9,521,420,240	21 / 20
2026-08-05	$7.43	$9,601,443,790	19 / 17
2026-08-06	$7.37	$9,456,934,758	13 / 16
2026-08-08	$7.46	$9,658,412,740	18 / 16
2026-08-09	$7.37	$9,456,934,758	13 / 16
2026-08-10	$7.46	$9,658,412,740	18 / 16
2026-08-12	$7.46	$9,658,412,740	18 / 16
2026-08-13	$7.37	$9,456,934,758	13 / 16
2026-08-14	$7.37	$9,456,934,758	13 / 16
2026-08-15	$7.37	$9,456,934,758	13 / 16
2026-08-16	$7.37	$9,456,934,758	12 / 14
2026-08-17	$7.37	$9,456,934,758	12 / 14
2026-08-18	$7.37	$9,456,934,758	11 / 14
2026-08-19	$7.37	$9,456,934,758	11 / 14
2026-08-20	$7.30	$9,340,566,874	11 / 12
2026-08-21	$7.30	$9,340,566,874	11 / 12
2026-08-22	$7.30	$9,340,566,874	11 / 12
2026-08-23	$7.30	$9,340,566,874	11 / 12
2026-08-24	$7.30	$9,340,566,874	11 / 12
2026-08-25	$7.29	$9,337,748,692	11 / 12
2026-08-26	$7.29	$9,337,748,692	11 / 12
2026-08-27	$7.29	$9,337,748,692	11 / 12
2026-08-28	$7.29	$9,337,748,692	11 / 12
2026-08-29	$7.27	$9,310,063,966	11 / 12
2026-08-30	$7.27	$9,310,063,966	11 / 12
2026-08-31	$7.27	$9,310,063,966	11 / 12
2026-09-01	$7.27	$9,310,063,966	11 / 12
2026-09-02	$7.27	$9,310,063,966	11 / 12
2026-09-03	$7.27	$9,310,063,966	11 / 12
2026-09-04	$7.27	$9,310,063,966	11 / 12
2026-09-05	$7.27	$9,310,063,966	11 / 12
2026-09-06	$7.27	$9,310,063,966	11 / 12
2026-09-07	$7.27	$9,310,063,966	11 / 12
2026-09-08	$7.27	$9,310,063,966	11 / 12
2026-09-09	$7.27	$9,310,063,966	11 / 12
2026-09-10	$7.27	$9,294,612,328	11 / 12
2026-09-11	$7.26	$9,240,875,965	9 / 9
2026-09-12	$7.26	$9,242,641,433	9 / 9
2026-09-13	$7.26	$9,242,641,433	9 / 9
2026-09-14	$7.26	$9,242,641,433	9 / 9
2026-09-15	$7.26	$9,242,641,433	9 / 9
2026-09-16	$7.26	$9,242,641,433	9 / 9
2026-09-17	$7.24	$9,211,439,631	9 / 10
2026-09-18	$7.24	$9,211,439,631	9 / 10
2026-09-19	$7.24	$9,211,439,631	9 / 10
2026-09-20	$7.24	$9,211,878,762	10 / 11
2026-09-21	$7.24	$9,211,878,762	10 / 11
2026-09-22	$7.24	$9,211,878,762	10 / 11
2026-09-23	$7.24	$9,211,878,762	10 / 11
2026-09-24	$7.24	$9,211,878,762	10 / 11
2026-09-25	$7.21	$9,211,878,762	10 / 11
2026-09-26	$7.22	$9,231,827,796	10 / 11
2026-09-27	$7.22	$9,231,827,796	10 / 11
2026-09-28	$7.22	$9,231,827,796	10 / 11
2026-09-29	$7.22	$9,231,827,796	10 / 11
2026-09-30	$7.22	$9,231,827,796	10 / 10
2026-10-01	$7.22	$9,223,229,736	9 / 10
2026-10-02	$7.22	$9,223,229,736	9 / 10
2026-10-03	$7.22	$9,223,229,736	10 / 11
2026-10-04	$7.22	$9,223,229,736	10 / 11
2026-10-05	$7.22	$9,223,229,736	10 / 11
2026-10-06	$7.22	$9,223,229,736	10 / 11
2026-10-07	$7.22	$9,223,229,736	10 / 11
2026-10-08	$7.21	$9,199,871,921	10 / 11
2026-10-09	$7.20	$9,199,865,264	10 / 11
2026-10-10	$7.20	$9,199,865,264	10 / 11
2026-10-11	$7.20	$9,199,865,264	10 / 10
2026-10-12	$7.20	$9,199,865,264	10 / 10
2026-10-13	$7.20	$9,199,865,264	10 / 10
2026-10-14	$7.17	$9,148,908,743	10 / 10
2026-10-15	$7.17	$9,148,908,743	10 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	17	0
2026-06-01	12	16	0
2026-07-01	11	15	1
2026-08-01	11	15	0
2026-09-01	14	15	0
2026-10-01	13	13	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

GuggenheimOct 6

$155.00New observation · no comparable prior

Seaport GlobalSep 16

$162.00New observation · no comparable prior

Robert W. BairdSep 16

$165.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$90.75$181.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Effective use of capital including share buybacksDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve 8% core operating profit growthPublished status: Under Pressure
Achieve 7% system sales growth excluding FXDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve 5% annual unit growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Yum! Brands outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is stable, supported by consistent unit growth but challenged by mixed results in sales and profit growth.

What's priced into Yum! Brands

The market seems to have a neutral valuation, reflecting a low expectations gap. YUM is trading at a premium compared to peers, indicating that some positive performance is already factored into its valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with unit growth but is slightly behind on sales and profit growth targets. Recent changes, including a CEO transition and completed acquisitions, may influence future performance, but risks remain moderate.

What Yum! Brands hinges on

Future performance will depend on management's ability to meet growth targets and external factors like inflation and sector performance. Positive momentum from leading peers in the Consumer Discretionary sector could provide support.