Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-29
$182.96+4.70%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put TXRH beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Restaurants is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Operating income growth via cost management: Operating income: $142.79M.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 10% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 24% growth a year, above the roughly 12% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskTXRH's case rests on comparable restaurant sales growth and store expansion, supported by strong recent performance. Revenue growth eased from 12.8% to 11.1% year over year, and Q2 FY2026 GAAP EPS missed consensus. Shares trade at 29× P/E versus a 16× peer median, near their 29× historical multiple. The market is pricing in more growth than our forecast. Beef-cost pressure threatens margins, and our model puts the next-quarter miss probability at 27%. The operating-income growth pillar is under pressure. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% below where it trades; the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. TXRH is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 32 analysts currently covering TXRH (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 13 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for TXRH in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare TXRH with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Compare now without an account. Saving and monitoring require an account.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXRH Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Restaurants — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put TXRH next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Drive comparable restaurant sales growth and store expansion
Upgrade reflects positive growth outlook for the company.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $182.96
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $182.96.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Improve restaurant margin despite commodity and labor inflation
Beef-cost pressure threatens restaurant margins despite record sales.
Advances: Drive comparable restaurant sales growth and store expansion
New location supports store expansion and sales growth.
Racism allegations could harm brand reputation and sales.
Advances: Drive comparable restaurant sales growth and store expansion
Expansion plans align with growth objectives and enhance investment thesis.
Advances: Drive comparable restaurant sales growth and store expansion
Confirmed near-term openings provide tangible, though incremental, evidence of expansion.
Advances: Drive comparable restaurant sales growth and store expansion
Rising sales and traffic directly support comparable-sales growth.
Advances: Increase revenue
Record average weekly sales indicate strong revenue momentum.
