Reading TXRH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TXRH free→
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$168.23+0.41%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, although TXRH is performing above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 28% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. This assessment hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of major players like MCD and SBUX. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Market cap
- $11.01B
- Employees
- 101,000
- IPO date
- 2004-05-07
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $168.23. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$131.48consensus
Range $112.71 – $151.32
vs price: +28% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$193.51consensus
Range $136.53 – $251.03
vs price: -13% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $168 the market pays 27× p/e — above the 21× p/e peer median but in line with its own 27× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $131 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $165–$210. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
26.8x
peer 20.9x · own history 27.2x
Premium
1.3x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
28%
our forecast 11%
Our fair value
$131.33
range $111.86 – $151.14
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 28% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
77th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.77x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
55th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BullishEPS revised +4.6% / 30d, n=26for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.73 → $1.81 (+4.6% / 30d). 23 raised, 2 cut, 26 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 0.3% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$133.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$245.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,961.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceQuartersactive 11d
Watch for Q2 earnings report to confirm or refute recent earnings miss
Why it matters: The earnings report will clarify if the recent earnings miss was a one-time issue or a trend.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings beat analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings miss analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TXRH yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MCD, SBUX, and YUM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting TXRH and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If TXRH raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If TXRH cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like MCD, SBUX, and YUM start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping TXRH and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits TXRH and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 2.02
and the Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Such information will not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement filed by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated by reference. 2 SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the S…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-0.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.