Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$165.66-4.12%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Texas Roadhouse’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.81 → 7.69 EPS · FY ending Dec 30, 2027 · 21 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 21 to 21; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Comparable sales growth	6.2%non-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.62B
EPS	—	1.317
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.52B
EPS	—	6.499
Capital expenditure	About $400M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.14B
EPS	—	7.688

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Quarterly dividend at $0.75 per share	Dividends increased to $0.75 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.68 next year	Dividend per share: $0.75 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.75 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20260.75 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: def9a15a-0683-47bc-8cd4-ba2e2e0f6679. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income growth via cost management	A primary condition in Texas Roadhouse's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income increase consistent with recent trajectory.	Under Pressure	Operating income fails to grow or declines next year	Operating income: $142.788M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income increase consistent with recent trajectory. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026142,788,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: def9a15a-0683-47bc-8cd4-ba2e2e0f6679. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth through menu pricing and store expansion	A primary condition in Texas Roadhouse's published investment case. The stated target is >=12% YoY revenue growth.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year	Revenue growth: 11.11% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=12% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202611.105556 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: def9a15a-0683-47bc-8cd4-ba2e2e0f6679. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-30 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.69

$7.66 → $7.69 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.14B

$7.15B → $7.14B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.66	$7,145,824,902	20 / 20
2026-07-25	$7.66	$7,145,824,902	20 / 20
2026-07-26	$7.67	$7,145,213,345	20 / 20
2026-07-27	$7.67	$7,145,213,345	20 / 20
2026-07-28	$7.67	$7,145,213,345	20 / 20
2026-07-29	$7.67	$7,144,638,255	20 / 20
2026-07-30	$7.67	$7,144,638,255	20 / 20
2026-07-31	$7.67	$7,144,638,255	20 / 20
2026-08-01	$7.67	$7,144,638,255	20 / 20
2026-08-02	$7.67	$7,144,638,255	20 / 20
2026-08-03	$7.67	$7,144,638,255	20 / 20
2026-08-04	$7.67	$7,146,888,263	19 / 19
2026-08-05	$7.67	$7,146,888,263	19 / 19
2026-08-06	$7.67	$7,146,888,263	19 / 19
2026-08-08	$7.67	$7,146,888,263	19 / 19
2026-08-09	$7.67	$7,146,888,263	19 / 19
2026-08-10	$7.67	$7,146,888,263	19 / 19
2026-08-12	$7.67	$7,146,888,263	19 / 19
2026-08-13	$7.67	$7,146,888,263	19 / 19
2026-08-14	$7.67	$7,146,888,263	19 / 19
2026-08-15	$7.67	$7,146,888,263	19 / 19
2026-08-16	$7.67	$7,146,888,263	20 / 20
2026-08-17	$7.67	$7,146,888,263	20 / 20
2026-08-18	$7.67	$7,146,888,263	20 / 20
2026-08-19	$7.67	$7,146,888,263	20 / 20
2026-08-20	$7.81	$7,149,719,353	20 / 20
2026-08-21	$7.81	$7,149,719,353	20 / 20
2026-08-22	$7.81	$7,149,719,353	20 / 20
2026-08-23	$7.81	$7,149,719,353	20 / 20
2026-08-24	$7.81	$7,149,719,353	20 / 20
2026-08-25	$7.79	$7,148,596,847	20 / 20
2026-08-26	$7.79	$7,148,596,847	20 / 20
2026-08-27	$7.79	$7,148,596,847	20 / 20
2026-08-28	$7.79	$7,148,596,847	20 / 20
2026-08-29	$7.80	$7,148,596,847	20 / 20
2026-08-30	$7.80	$7,148,596,847	20 / 20
2026-08-31	$7.80	$7,148,596,847	20 / 20
2026-09-01	$7.80	$7,148,596,847	20 / 20
2026-09-02	$7.80	$7,148,596,847	20 / 20
2026-09-03	$7.80	$7,148,596,847	20 / 20
2026-09-04	$7.79	$7,148,596,847	20 / 20
2026-09-05	$7.79	$7,148,596,847	20 / 20
2026-09-06	$7.80	$7,148,596,847	20 / 20
2026-09-07	$7.80	$7,148,596,847	20 / 20
2026-09-08	$7.80	$7,148,596,847	20 / 20
2026-09-09	$7.80	$7,148,596,847	20 / 20
2026-09-10	$7.81	$7,150,112,353	20 / 20
2026-09-11	$7.81	$7,150,112,353	20 / 20
2026-09-12	$7.81	$7,151,141,914	20 / 20
2026-09-13	$7.81	$7,151,141,914	20 / 20
2026-09-14	$7.81	$7,151,141,914	20 / 20
2026-09-15	$7.81	$7,151,141,914	20 / 20
2026-09-16	$7.81	$7,151,141,914	20 / 20
2026-09-17	$7.81	$7,152,478,843	21 / 21
2026-09-18	$7.81	$7,152,478,843	21 / 21
2026-09-19	$7.81	$7,152,478,843	21 / 21
2026-09-20	$7.81	$7,160,638,510	21 / 21
2026-09-21	$7.81	$7,160,638,510	21 / 21
2026-09-22	$7.81	$7,160,638,510	21 / 21
2026-09-23	$7.81	$7,160,638,510	21 / 21
2026-09-24	$7.81	$7,160,638,510	21 / 21
2026-09-25	$7.81	$7,160,591,806	21 / 21
2026-09-26	$7.80	$7,162,768,414	21 / 21
2026-09-27	$7.80	$7,162,768,414	21 / 21
2026-09-28	$7.80	$7,162,768,414	21 / 21
2026-09-29	$7.80	$7,162,768,414	21 / 21
2026-09-30	$7.80	$7,162,768,414	21 / 21
2026-10-01	$7.79	$7,161,249,632	20 / 20
2026-10-02	$7.79	$7,161,249,632	20 / 20
2026-10-03	$7.79	$7,161,248,747	20 / 20
2026-10-04	$7.79	$7,161,248,747	20 / 20
2026-10-05	$7.79	$7,160,448,747	20 / 20
2026-10-06	$7.79	$7,160,448,747	20 / 20
2026-10-07	$7.79	$7,159,575,670	20 / 20
2026-10-08	$7.79	$7,159,575,670	21 / 20
2026-10-09	$7.79	$7,159,575,670	21 / 20
2026-10-10	$7.79	$7,159,575,670	21 / 20
2026-10-11	$7.79	$7,159,252,324	21 / 20
2026-10-12	$7.79	$7,159,252,324	21 / 20
2026-10-13	$7.79	$7,157,301,028	21 / 20
2026-10-14	$7.79	$7,157,301,912	21 / 20
2026-10-15	$7.79	$7,157,582,682	21 / 20
2026-10-16	$7.78	$7,155,924,190	21 / 20
2026-10-17	$7.78	$7,155,924,190	21 / 20
2026-10-18	$7.76	$7,148,970,458	21 / 20
2026-10-19	$7.76	$7,148,970,458	21 / 20
2026-10-20	$7.76	$7,148,970,458	21 / 20
2026-10-21	$7.76	$7,148,970,458	21 / 20
2026-10-22	$7.71	$7,142,139,761	21 / 20
2026-10-23	$7.71	$7,142,139,761	21 / 20
2026-10-24	$7.69	$7,139,480,222	21 / 20

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	14	17	0
2026-06-01	14	14	0
2026-07-01	14	14	1
2026-08-01	14	13	1
2026-09-01	15	13	1
2026-10-01	19	12	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

4 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 10 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 14

$190.00New observation · no comparable prior

Evercore ISISep 25

$220.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$121.00$242.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Quarterly dividend at $0.75 per shareDividend per share: $0.75 per share
Operating income growth via cost managementPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth through menu pricing and store expansionPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Texas Roadhouse outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a restaurant growth business with a durable premium valuation, rather than a turnaround story. The long-term thesis is intact, though momentum has weakened and the latest signal is mixed.

What's priced into Texas Roadhouse

TXRH is valued at a premium to peers, and the evidence labels that premium as justified. The estimated expectations gap is small, but model confidence is low, so the valuation read is uncertain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, comparable restaurant sales growth and store expansion support the business: comparable sales reached 6.2% in 2026-Q2, and the company opened 16 restaurants in the first half of 2026. Restaurant margin dollars also increased despite commodity and wage inflation, though the August earnings miss and weaker company momentum temper the picture.

What Texas Roadhouse hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued growth in sales and locations would support the multi-year thesis. Near-term sector conditions also matter: strong results from bellwethers such as MCD, SBUX, and YUM could sustain a tailwind, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.