Shake Shack, Inc. (SHAK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-29
$70.48-0.04%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put SHAK beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Restaurants is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Revenue grows at least 15% in FY26: Revenue: $417.62M.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 17% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 38%, softest on free-cash-flow yield.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 91% growth a year, above the roughly 18% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 50% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskShake Shack’s thesis depends on sustaining revenue growth and delivering adjusted EBITDA and net income growth. Revenue growth rose from 14.3% in Q1 to 17.2% in Q2; Q2 earnings beat consensus. SHAK trades at 61× P/E versus a 16× peer median. The market is pricing in more growth than our forecast, so expectations look full. The primary revenue pillar is under pressure against the FY26 growth requirement. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 30%. Peer multiples imply a price about 91% below where it trades; the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. SHAK is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 29 analysts currently covering SHAK (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 8 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for SHAK in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare SHAK with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Compare now without an account. Saving and monitoring require an account.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHAK Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Restaurants — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put SHAK next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Deliver adjusted EBITDA and net income growth
Earnings miss raises concerns about income growth.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $70.48
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $70.48.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Expand store footprint
New store openings support expansion of store footprint.
Threatens: Expand store footprint
Delays in store openings hinder expansion plans.
Advances: Expand store footprint
Expansion aligns with growth objectives and increases market presence.
Advances: Expand store footprint
Franchising push aligns with store expansion goals.
Employee incident raises safety and operational concerns.
Threatens: Improve operational efficiency
Cost growth may hinder operational efficiency improvements.
Advances: Expand store footprint
Expansion targets align with growth objectives.
