Reading SHAK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SHAK free→Reading SHAK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SHAK free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, SHAK trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 78% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $58.40. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $58 the market pays 51× p/e — above the 21× p/e peer median but in line with its own 96× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $32 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $60–$148. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 80% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.42x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.41 → $0.30 (-25.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 15 cut, 16 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 2 downgrades / 30d, 8 maintained. 57% of analysts rate Buy.
10 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 36.1% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$205.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$408.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,315.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Shake Shack can recover from the recent earnings miss.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) beats analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Confirms the other:EPS misses analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SHAK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of Shake Shack Inc. (the “ Company ”), upon the recommendation of its Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, approved an increase to the size of the Board of the Company from eight to nine members and appointed Christiane Pendarvis to fill the vacancy so created, effective as of July 2, 2026 (the “ Eff…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$60.00 – $148.00 (median $83.50) · 22 analysts · as of 2026-06-04
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Restaurants.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SHAK Shake Shack, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 5 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | moderate |
SBUX Starbucks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
YUM Yum! Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to expand the number of Company-operated and licensed Shacks globally.
Focus on enhancing operational efficiency to improve profitability.
Invest in digital platforms to improve customer engagement and operational efficiency.
Why it matters: Lower sales growth means customers are buying less. This can hurt revenue.
Confirms:Same-Shack sales growth reported below 2.5% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Same-Shack sales growth reported above 3.0% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Store expansion is a key priority for growth, and delays could hurt future sales.
Confirms:Announcement of new store openings that total at least 10 locations in the next quarter.
Disproves:No new store openings announced for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better efficiency can lower costs and raise profit margins.
Confirms:Management says operational costs will drop by at least 5% next quarter.
Disproves:Operational costs go up or stay the same even with efficiency efforts.
Why it matters: A margin below 22.0% shows problems with operations and rising costs.
Confirms:Profit margin at restaurants was below 22.0% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Profit margin at restaurants was above 23.0% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better digital tools can boost sales and help customers.
Confirms:Launch of a new digital ordering app that makes it easier to use.
Disproves:No big updates or improvements to digital tools have been shared.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . On May 6, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of Shake Shack Inc. (“ Shake Shack ”) appointed Michelle Hook to serve as its Chief Financial Officer, effective as of May 11, 2026 (the “ Effective Date ”). Ms. Hook will report to Robert Lynch, Shake Shack’s Chief Executive Officer, and work closely with the current senior executive leadersh…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Shake Shack Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release and shareholder letter announcing its financial results for the fiscal first quarter ended April 1, 2026. The full text of the press release and shareholder letter are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Current Report on Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or inc…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On February 23, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Shake Shack Inc. (the “Company”) designated Peter Herpich, the Company’s current Corporate Controller, to serve as the Company’s principal financial officer on an interim basis. As previously disclosed, Katherine Fogertey resigned from her roles as Chief Financial Officer and principal fi…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . On March 3, 2026, after more than nine years of service, Joshua Silverman informed the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Shake Shack Inc. (the “Company”) of his intention to step down from the Board of the Company and as a Class II director, effective May 1, 2026. Mr. Silverman also will step down as a member of the Board’s Audit and Nominating…