Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

Q: What's priced into Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) stock?

The market currently prices CMG at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that investors have high expectations for future performance. There is a notable expectations gap, suggesting that some positive outcomes may already be reflected in the valuation.

Q: What does the Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) outlook hinge on?

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the performance of sector peers like MCD and SBUX, which could influence CMG's momentum. Additionally, any shifts in inflation rates could impact consumer spending and the company's growth trajectory.

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$29.89-2.26%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Chipotle Mexican Grill’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.37 → 1.37 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 21 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 22 to 21; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain flat comparable restaurant sales in 2026	A primary condition in Chipotle Mexican Grill's published investment case. The stated target is >=0% YoY growth.	Intact	comparable restaurant sales growth falls below -2% in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Enhance digital and menu innovation	The company is strong in digital and menu innovation.	Intact	digital and menu innovation efforts stall or reverse	Qualitative: Chipotlane expansion advancing Chipotle built 500 Chipotlanes in <2 years; success supports 'Recipe for Growth' digital/menu innovation goals. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain stable profit margins near current levels	Profit margins remain stable with steady earnings.	Improving	profit margins fall more than 200 basis points below recent levels	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Open 350 to 370 new restaurants in 2026	Chipotle plans to open 350 to 370 new restaurants in 2026.	Intact	new restaurant openings fall below 300 in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Management consistently anticipates 350 to 370 new restaurant openings in 2026, including 10 to 15 international partner-operated restaurants, with about 80% having a Chipotlane. This reflects a steady continuation of the aggressive expansion strategy seen since 2025. The trajectory is delivering on the stated expansion plan. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.37

$1.35 → $1.37 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$14.44B

$14.39B → $14.44B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.35	$14,385,054,480	35 / 34
2026-07-25	$1.35	$14,387,966,240	35 / 34
2026-07-26	$1.35	$14,387,966,240	35 / 34
2026-07-27	$1.35	$14,387,966,240	35 / 34
2026-07-28	$1.35	$14,387,966,240	35 / 34
2026-07-29	$1.35	$14,391,340,762	22 / 26
2026-07-30	$1.35	$14,387,966,240	35 / 34
2026-07-31	$1.37	$14,415,700,480	33 / 32
2026-08-01	$1.37	$14,417,342,611	20 / 25
2026-08-02	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-03	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-04	$1.37	$14,418,791,370	34 / 33
2026-08-05	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-06	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-07	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-08	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-09	$1.37	$14,418,956,730	34 / 32
2026-08-10	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-11	$1.37	$14,418,956,730	34 / 32
2026-08-12	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-13	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-14	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-15	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-16	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-17	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-18	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	22 / 26
2026-08-19	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	22 / 26
2026-08-20	$1.37	$14,427,389,203	21 / 26
2026-08-21	$1.37	$14,427,389,203	21 / 26
2026-08-22	$1.37	$14,427,389,203	21 / 26
2026-08-23	$1.37	$14,427,389,203	21 / 26
2026-08-24	$1.37	$14,427,389,203	21 / 26
2026-08-25	$1.37	$14,426,406,046	21 / 26
2026-08-26	$1.37	$14,426,406,046	21 / 26
2026-08-27	$1.37	$14,426,406,046	21 / 26
2026-08-28	$1.37	$14,426,406,046	21 / 26
2026-08-29	$1.37	$14,426,406,046	21 / 26
2026-08-30	$1.37	$14,426,406,046	21 / 26
2026-08-31	$1.37	$14,426,406,046	21 / 26
2026-09-01	$1.37	$14,426,406,046	21 / 26
2026-09-02	$1.37	$14,426,406,046	21 / 26
2026-09-03	$1.37	$14,432,967,507	21 / 26
2026-09-04	$1.37	$14,432,967,507	21 / 26
2026-09-05	$1.37	$14,432,967,507	21 / 26
2026-09-06	$1.37	$14,432,967,507	21 / 26
2026-09-07	$1.37	$14,432,967,507	21 / 26
2026-09-08	$1.37	$14,432,967,507	21 / 26
2026-09-09	$1.37	$14,432,967,507	21 / 26
2026-09-10	$1.37	$14,432,967,507	21 / 26
2026-09-11	$1.37	$14,427,466,459	21 / 26
2026-09-12	$1.37	$14,434,759,528	21 / 26
2026-09-13	$1.37	$14,434,759,528	22 / 26
2026-09-14	$1.37	$14,434,759,528	22 / 26
2026-09-15	$1.37	$14,434,759,528	22 / 26
2026-09-16	$1.37	$14,434,759,528	22 / 26
2026-09-17	$1.37	$14,434,854,355	22 / 26
2026-09-18	$1.37	$14,434,854,355	22 / 26
2026-09-19	$1.37	$14,434,854,355	22 / 27
2026-09-20	$1.37	$14,434,854,355	22 / 27
2026-09-21	$1.37	$14,434,854,355	22 / 27
2026-09-22	$1.37	$14,434,854,355	22 / 27
2026-09-23	$1.37	$14,434,854,355	22 / 27
2026-09-24	$1.37	$14,434,854,355	22 / 27
2026-09-25	$1.37	$14,434,854,355	22 / 27
2026-09-26	$1.37	$14,441,491,592	22 / 26
2026-09-27	$1.37	$14,441,491,592	22 / 26
2026-09-28	$1.37	$14,441,491,592	22 / 26
2026-09-29	$1.37	$14,441,491,491	22 / 26
2026-09-30	$1.37	$14,442,656,745	22 / 26
2026-10-01	$1.37	$14,442,656,745	22 / 26
2026-10-02	$1.37	$14,442,656,745	21 / 26
2026-10-03	$1.37	$14,442,656,745	21 / 26
2026-10-04	$1.37	$14,442,656,745	21 / 26
2026-10-05	$1.37	$14,442,656,745	21 / 26
2026-10-06	$1.37	$14,442,656,745	21 / 26
2026-10-07	$1.37	$14,442,656,745	21 / 26
2026-10-08	$1.37	$14,442,656,745	21 / 26
2026-10-09	$1.37	$14,442,795,455	21 / 26
2026-10-10	$1.37	$14,442,795,455	21 / 26
2026-10-11	$1.37	$14,442,795,455	21 / 26
2026-10-12	$1.37	$14,442,795,455	21 / 26
2026-10-13	$1.37	$14,442,795,455	21 / 26
2026-10-14	$1.37	$14,442,795,455	21 / 26
2026-10-15	$1.37	$14,442,795,455	21 / 26

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	27	12
2026-06-01	26	11
2026-07-01	26	11
2026-08-01	25	11
2026-09-01	24	12
2026-10-01	24	12

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 24 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

StephensOct 15 · prior Jul 30

$40.00 → $38.00-5.0%

Morgan StanleyOct 15 · prior Jul 30

$39.00 → $40.00+2.6%

$0$22.00$44.00

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain flat comparable restaurant sales in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain stable profit margins near current levelsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Open 350 to 370 new restaurants in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-33.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Chipotle Mexican Grill outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth through restaurant expansion and menu innovation. The current thesis state is intact, but recent changes in sentiment have shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.

What's priced into Chipotle Mexican Grill

The market currently prices CMG at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that investors have high expectations for future performance. There is a notable expectations gap, suggesting that some positive outcomes may already be reflected in the valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show continued improvement in comparable restaurant sales, as management is on track to achieve low single-digit growth. However, risks remain due to potential earnings guidance cuts and broader economic pressures.

What Chipotle Mexican Grill hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the performance of sector peers like MCD and SBUX, which could influence CMG's momentum. Additionally, any shifts in inflation rates could impact consumer spending and the company's growth trajectory.

Bottom line

Overall, CMG's long-term outlook is shaped by its expansion strategy and the performance of the consumer discretionary sector. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.37

$1.35 → $1.37 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$14.44B

$14.39B → $14.44B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.35	$14,385,054,480	35 / 34
2026-07-25	$1.35	$14,387,966,240	35 / 34
2026-07-26	$1.35	$14,387,966,240	35 / 34
2026-07-27	$1.35	$14,387,966,240	35 / 34
2026-07-28	$1.35	$14,387,966,240	35 / 34
2026-07-29	$1.35	$14,391,340,762	22 / 26
2026-07-30	$1.35	$14,387,966,240	35 / 34
2026-07-31	$1.37	$14,415,700,480	33 / 32
2026-08-01	$1.37	$14,417,342,611	20 / 25
2026-08-02	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-03	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-04	$1.37	$14,418,791,370	34 / 33
2026-08-05	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-06	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-07	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-08	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-09	$1.37	$14,418,956,730	34 / 32
2026-08-10	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-11	$1.37	$14,418,956,730	34 / 32
2026-08-12	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-13	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-14	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-15	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-16	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-17	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	21 / 26
2026-08-18	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	22 / 26
2026-08-19	$1.37	$14,420,621,924	22 / 26
2026-08-20	$1.37	$14,427,389,203	21 / 26
2026-08-21	$1.37	$14,427,389,203	21 / 26
2026-08-22	$1.37	$14,427,389,203	21 / 26
2026-08-23	$1.37	$14,427,389,203	21 / 26
2026-08-24	$1.37	$14,427,389,203	21 / 26
2026-08-25	$1.37	$14,426,406,046	21 / 26
2026-08-26	$1.37	$14,426,406,046	21 / 26
2026-08-27	$1.37	$14,426,406,046	21 / 26
2026-08-28	$1.37	$14,426,406,046	21 / 26
2026-08-29	$1.37	$14,426,406,046	21 / 26
2026-08-30	$1.37	$14,426,406,046	21 / 26
2026-08-31	$1.37	$14,426,406,046	21 / 26
2026-09-01	$1.37	$14,426,406,046	21 / 26
2026-09-02	$1.37	$14,426,406,046	21 / 26
2026-09-03	$1.37	$14,432,967,507	21 / 26
2026-09-04	$1.37	$14,432,967,507	21 / 26
2026-09-05	$1.37	$14,432,967,507	21 / 26
2026-09-06	$1.37	$14,432,967,507	21 / 26
2026-09-07	$1.37	$14,432,967,507	21 / 26
2026-09-08	$1.37	$14,432,967,507	21 / 26
2026-09-09	$1.37	$14,432,967,507	21 / 26
2026-09-10	$1.37	$14,432,967,507	21 / 26
2026-09-11	$1.37	$14,427,466,459	21 / 26
2026-09-12	$1.37	$14,434,759,528	21 / 26
2026-09-13	$1.37	$14,434,759,528	22 / 26
2026-09-14	$1.37	$14,434,759,528	22 / 26
2026-09-15	$1.37	$14,434,759,528	22 / 26
2026-09-16	$1.37	$14,434,759,528	22 / 26
2026-09-17	$1.37	$14,434,854,355	22 / 26
2026-09-18	$1.37	$14,434,854,355	22 / 26
2026-09-19	$1.37	$14,434,854,355	22 / 27
2026-09-20	$1.37	$14,434,854,355	22 / 27
2026-09-21	$1.37	$14,434,854,355	22 / 27
2026-09-22	$1.37	$14,434,854,355	22 / 27
2026-09-23	$1.37	$14,434,854,355	22 / 27
2026-09-24	$1.37	$14,434,854,355	22 / 27
2026-09-25	$1.37	$14,434,854,355	22 / 27
2026-09-26	$1.37	$14,441,491,592	22 / 26
2026-09-27	$1.37	$14,441,491,592	22 / 26
2026-09-28	$1.37	$14,441,491,592	22 / 26
2026-09-29	$1.37	$14,441,491,491	22 / 26
2026-09-30	$1.37	$14,442,656,745	22 / 26
2026-10-01	$1.37	$14,442,656,745	22 / 26
2026-10-02	$1.37	$14,442,656,745	21 / 26
2026-10-03	$1.37	$14,442,656,745	21 / 26
2026-10-04	$1.37	$14,442,656,745	21 / 26
2026-10-05	$1.37	$14,442,656,745	21 / 26
2026-10-06	$1.37	$14,442,656,745	21 / 26
2026-10-07	$1.37	$14,442,656,745	21 / 26
2026-10-08	$1.37	$14,442,656,745	21 / 26
2026-10-09	$1.37	$14,442,795,455	21 / 26
2026-10-10	$1.37	$14,442,795,455	21 / 26
2026-10-11	$1.37	$14,442,795,455	21 / 26
2026-10-12	$1.37	$14,442,795,455	21 / 26
2026-10-13	$1.37	$14,442,795,455	21 / 26
2026-10-14	$1.37	$14,442,795,455	21 / 26
2026-10-15	$1.37	$14,442,795,455	21 / 26

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings