McDonald's (MCD)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$242.97+0.19%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge McDonald's’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

13.94 → 13.79 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 21 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 22 to 21; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capex near $3.75 billion to support growth and automation	The company invests $3.7 billion in 2026 to support growth.	Intact	Capex falls below $3.0B in FY26	Capital expenditures: $834M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.75B capex. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026834,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful rollout of new menu and automation (NEXT strategy)	New menu items and automation help sales and cost control.	Intact	New menu and automation fail to improve sales or margins	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain operating margin in mid-to-high 40% range	It aims to keep profit margins in the mid-to-high 40% range.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 40% in FY25	Operating margin: 47.02% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=40% operating margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202647.020707 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 78b22b5d-5390-49a3-8dc7-9adc037729de. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Operating income margin was about 47% in 2026-Q2 (operating income $3.338B on revenue $7.099B). Management's guidance consistently targets mid-to-high 40% margins, and actual margins align with this target, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Sustain revenue growth near 7% or higher	A primary condition in McDonald's's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year	Revenue growth: 3.74% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20263.741049 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 78b22b5d-5390-49a3-8dc7-9adc037729de. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$13.79

$14.15 → $13.79 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$29.01B

$30.03B → $29.01B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$14.15	$30,031,697,790	33 / 33
2026-07-25	$14.12	$30,038,543,005	21 / 25
2026-07-26	$14.12	$30,029,576,580	33 / 33
2026-07-27	$14.08	$30,024,697,594	22 / 25
2026-07-28	$14.08	$30,024,697,594	22 / 25
2026-07-29	$14.08	$30,024,697,594	22 / 25
2026-07-30	$14.12	$30,016,555,030	33 / 33
2026-07-31	$14.07	$30,010,360,560	22 / 25
2026-08-01	$14.07	$30,010,360,560	22 / 25
2026-08-02	$14.12	$30,016,555,030	33 / 33
2026-08-03	$14.11	$30,011,800,490	33 / 33
2026-08-04	$14.07	$30,005,130,560	22 / 25
2026-08-05	$14.07	$30,005,130,560	22 / 25
2026-08-06	$14.07	$30,005,130,560	22 / 25
2026-08-07	$13.97	$29,671,997,046	21 / 24
2026-08-08	$13.97	$29,671,997,046	21 / 24
2026-08-09	$13.99	$29,649,008,760	31 / 32
2026-08-10	$13.97	$29,671,997,046	21 / 24
2026-08-12	$13.99	$29,649,152,510	32 / 32
2026-08-13	$13.97	$29,671,997,046	21 / 24
2026-08-14	$13.97	$29,671,997,046	21 / 24
2026-08-15	$13.97	$29,671,997,046	21 / 24
2026-08-16	$13.97	$29,671,997,046	21 / 24
2026-08-17	$13.97	$29,671,997,046	21 / 24
2026-08-18	$13.97	$29,671,997,046	21 / 24
2026-08-19	$13.97	$29,671,997,046	21 / 24
2026-08-20	$13.97	$29,658,233,441	21 / 24
2026-08-21	$13.97	$29,658,233,441	21 / 24
2026-08-22	$13.97	$29,658,233,441	21 / 24
2026-08-23	$13.96	$29,656,910,860	21 / 24
2026-08-24	$13.96	$29,656,910,860	21 / 24
2026-08-25	$13.97	$29,659,297,957	21 / 24
2026-08-26	$13.97	$29,659,297,957	21 / 24
2026-08-27	$13.97	$29,659,297,957	21 / 24
2026-08-28	$13.97	$29,659,297,957	21 / 24
2026-08-29	$13.95	$29,645,134,266	21 / 25
2026-08-30	$13.95	$29,645,134,266	21 / 25
2026-08-31	$13.95	$29,645,134,266	21 / 25
2026-09-01	$13.95	$29,645,134,266	21 / 25
2026-09-02	$13.95	$29,645,134,266	21 / 25
2026-09-03	$13.95	$29,645,134,266	21 / 25
2026-09-04	$13.95	$29,645,134,266	21 / 25
2026-09-05	$13.94	$29,644,195,557	21 / 25
2026-09-06	$13.94	$29,644,195,557	21 / 25
2026-09-07	$13.94	$29,644,195,557	21 / 25
2026-09-08	$13.94	$29,644,195,557	21 / 25
2026-09-09	$13.94	$29,644,195,557	21 / 25
2026-09-10	$13.94	$29,644,195,557	22 / 25
2026-09-11	$13.94	$29,644,195,557	22 / 25
2026-09-12	$13.94	$29,633,961,886	22 / 25
2026-09-13	$13.94	$29,633,961,886	22 / 25
2026-09-14	$13.94	$29,633,961,886	22 / 25
2026-09-15	$13.94	$29,638,924,947	22 / 25
2026-09-16	$13.94	$29,643,150,754	22 / 25
2026-09-17	$13.94	$29,652,534,830	22 / 25
2026-09-18	$13.94	$29,652,534,830	22 / 25
2026-09-19	$13.94	$29,652,534,830	22 / 25
2026-09-20	$13.94	$29,651,639,836	22 / 26
2026-09-21	$13.94	$29,651,639,836	22 / 26
2026-09-22	$13.94	$29,650,775,838	22 / 26
2026-09-23	$13.94	$29,650,413,338	22 / 26
2026-09-24	$13.94	$29,650,413,338	22 / 26
2026-09-25	$13.93	$29,592,561,738	22 / 26
2026-09-26	$13.85	$29,281,872,221	22 / 26
2026-09-27	$13.86	$29,276,948,744	21 / 25
2026-09-28	$13.86	$29,276,948,744	21 / 25
2026-09-29	$13.85	$29,220,291,946	21 / 25
2026-09-30	$13.85	$29,207,105,736	21 / 24
2026-10-01	$13.85	$29,182,357,492	21 / 24
2026-10-02	$13.85	$29,182,357,492	21 / 24
2026-10-03	$13.85	$29,182,357,492	21 / 24
2026-10-04	$13.85	$29,182,357,492	21 / 24
2026-10-05	$13.85	$29,182,357,492	21 / 24
2026-10-06	$13.82	$29,103,156,545	21 / 24
2026-10-07	$13.81	$29,088,408,158	21 / 24
2026-10-08	$13.81	$29,091,353,320	21 / 24
2026-10-09	$13.79	$29,005,894,237	21 / 24
2026-10-10	$13.79	$29,005,894,237	21 / 24
2026-10-11	$13.79	$29,005,894,237	21 / 24
2026-10-12	$13.79	$29,005,894,237	21 / 24
2026-10-13	$13.79	$29,005,894,237	21 / 24
2026-10-14	$13.79	$29,005,894,237	21 / 24
2026-10-15	$13.79	$29,005,894,237	21 / 24

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	20	16	1
2026-06-01	19	15	1
2026-07-01	19	15	1
2026-08-01	19	15	1
2026-09-01	19	15	1
2026-10-01	19	14	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades16 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 16 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BernsteinOct 8 · prior Aug 5

$295.00 → $250.00-15.3%

KeyBancOct 6 · prior Jun 29

$315.00 → $280.00-11.1%

Wells FargoOct 5 · prior Jul 16

$300.00 → $270.00-10.0%

GuggenheimOct 5 · prior Aug 5

$290.00 → $250.00-13.8%

Morgan StanleySep 28 · prior Sep 14

$308.00 → $297.00-3.6%

Melius ResearchSep 28

$230.00New observation · no comparable prior

H.C. WainwrightSep 25

$250.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSSep 24 · prior Sep 21

$320.00 → $260.00-18.8%

Robert W. BairdSep 24 · prior Aug 5

$285.00 → $250.00-12.3%

RBC CapitalSep 24 · prior Sep 15

$290.00 → $285.00-1.7%

OppenheimerSep 24

$295.00New observation · no comparable prior

JefferiesSep 24

$325.00New observation · no comparable prior

Cowen & Co.Sep 24

$270.00New observation · no comparable prior

BMO CapitalSep 24

$310.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$178.75$357.50

0 raises · 8 cuts · 0 unchanged · 6 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capex near $3.75 billion to support growth and automationCapital expenditures: $834M
Successful rollout of new menu and automation (NEXT strategy)Qualitative condition
Maintain operating margin in mid-to-high 40% rangeOperating margin: 47.02%
Sustain revenue growth near 7% or higherPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

McDonald's outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with stable management and a focus on growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by consistent priorities and recent earnings beats, but tempered by sector challenges and management transitions.

What's priced into McDonald's

The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation, reflecting a low fragility tier. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that while MCD is seen as justified in its valuation, it is trading at a premium compared to peers.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show continued positive growth in sales, although at a decelerating rate. Management's focus on maintaining operating margins and increasing capital expenditures suggests a commitment to long-term performance, but near-term risks remain moderate.

What McDonald's hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and navigate inflationary pressures. Additionally, the performance of sector peers like SBUX, CMG, and YUM will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and MCD's trajectory.