Cava Group (CAVA)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$53.48-2.19%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Cava Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.75 → 0.74 EPS · FY ending Dec 28, 2027 · 22 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 22 to 22; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	441.97M
EPS	—	0.256
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.5B
EPS	—	0.544
EBITDA	$181M–$191Mnon-GAAP	—
Same Restaurant comparable sales growth	4.5%–6.5%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.82B
EPS	—	0.744

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain positive EPS with at least $0.55 per share in FY26	A supporting condition in Cava Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.55 EPS.	Improving	EPS falls below $0.55 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.19 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.55 EPS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 20260.19 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 12, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 440c0416-00b6-4866-b320-c5985f312dc0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Company revenue grows to at least $1.176 billion in FY26	A primary condition in Cava Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.176 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.176 billion in FY26	Revenue: $368.436M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.176 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 2026368,436,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 12, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 440c0416-00b6-4866-b320-c5985f312dc0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Same-restaurant sales grow 4.5% to 6.5% in FY26	Same-store sales are expected to grow 4.5% to 6.5%.	Intact	Same-store sales growth falls below 4.5% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Open 75 to 77 net new restaurant locations in FY26	It plans to open 75 to 77 new restaurants in 2026.	Intact	Net new openings fall below 75 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.74

$0.75 → $0.74 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.82B

$1.81B → $1.82B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.75	$1,811,242,610	20 / 20
2026-07-25	$0.75	$1,811,242,610	20 / 20
2026-07-26	$0.75	$1,810,303,526	20 / 20
2026-07-27	$0.75	$1,810,303,526	20 / 20
2026-07-28	$0.75	$1,810,303,526	20 / 20
2026-07-29	$0.75	$1,810,303,526	20 / 20
2026-07-30	$0.75	$1,810,303,526	20 / 20
2026-07-31	$0.75	$1,810,358,292	20 / 20
2026-08-01	$0.75	$1,810,358,292	20 / 20
2026-08-02	$0.75	$1,810,358,292	20 / 20
2026-08-03	$0.75	$1,810,358,292	20 / 20
2026-08-04	$0.75	$1,810,358,292	20 / 20
2026-08-05	$0.75	$1,810,358,292	20 / 20
2026-08-06	$0.75	$1,810,358,292	20 / 20
2026-08-07	$0.75	$1,810,358,292	20 / 20
2026-08-08	$0.75	$1,810,358,292	20 / 20
2026-08-09	$0.75	$1,810,358,292	20 / 20
2026-08-10	$0.75	$1,810,358,292	20 / 20
2026-08-11	$0.75	$1,810,358,292	20 / 20
2026-08-12	$0.75	$1,810,358,292	20 / 20
2026-08-13	$0.75	$1,810,358,292	20 / 20
2026-08-14	$0.75	$1,810,358,292	20 / 20
2026-08-15	$0.75	$1,810,358,292	20 / 20
2026-08-16	$0.75	$1,810,358,292	20 / 20
2026-08-17	$0.75	$1,810,358,292	20 / 20
2026-08-18	$0.75	$1,810,358,292	20 / 20
2026-08-19	$0.75	$1,810,358,292	20 / 20
2026-08-20	$0.74	$1,818,154,950	20 / 20
2026-08-21	$0.74	$1,818,154,950	20 / 20
2026-08-22	$0.74	$1,818,156,150	20 / 20
2026-08-23	$0.74	$1,818,156,150	20 / 21
2026-08-24	$0.74	$1,818,156,150	20 / 21
2026-08-25	$0.74	$1,818,156,150	20 / 21
2026-08-26	$0.74	$1,818,156,150	20 / 21
2026-08-27	$0.74	$1,818,156,150	20 / 21
2026-08-28	$0.74	$1,818,156,150	20 / 21
2026-08-29	$0.74	$1,818,156,150	21 / 21
2026-08-30	$0.74	$1,818,156,150	21 / 21
2026-08-31	$0.74	$1,818,156,150	21 / 21
2026-09-01	$0.74	$1,818,156,150	21 / 21
2026-09-02	$0.74	$1,818,156,150	21 / 21
2026-09-03	$0.74	$1,818,156,150	21 / 21
2026-09-04	$0.74	$1,818,156,150	21 / 21
2026-09-05	$0.74	$1,818,156,150	21 / 21
2026-09-06	$0.74	$1,818,156,150	21 / 21
2026-09-07	$0.74	$1,818,156,150	21 / 21
2026-09-08	$0.74	$1,818,156,150	21 / 21
2026-09-09	$0.74	$1,818,156,150	21 / 21
2026-09-10	$0.74	$1,818,156,150	21 / 21
2026-09-11	$0.74	$1,818,156,150	21 / 21
2026-09-12	$0.74	$1,818,157,622	21 / 21
2026-09-13	$0.74	$1,818,157,622	21 / 21
2026-09-14	$0.74	$1,818,157,622	21 / 21
2026-09-15	$0.74	$1,818,157,622	21 / 21
2026-09-16	$0.74	$1,818,157,622	21 / 21
2026-09-17	$0.74	$1,818,136,175	21 / 21
2026-09-18	$0.74	$1,818,136,175	21 / 21
2026-09-19	$0.75	$1,818,547,713	21 / 22
2026-09-20	$0.75	$1,818,547,713	22 / 22
2026-09-21	$0.75	$1,818,547,713	22 / 22
2026-09-22	$0.75	$1,818,547,713	22 / 22
2026-09-23	$0.75	$1,818,547,713	22 / 22
2026-09-24	$0.75	$1,818,547,713	22 / 22
2026-09-25	$0.75	$1,818,547,713	22 / 22
2026-09-26	$0.75	$1,818,547,713	22 / 22
2026-09-27	$0.75	$1,818,137,622	22 / 21
2026-09-28	$0.75	$1,818,137,622	22 / 21
2026-09-29	$0.75	$1,818,137,622	22 / 21
2026-09-30	$0.75	$1,818,299,125	22 / 21
2026-10-01	$0.75	$1,818,299,125	22 / 21
2026-10-02	$0.75	$1,818,299,125	22 / 21
2026-10-03	$0.75	$1,818,299,125	22 / 21
2026-10-04	$0.75	$1,818,299,125	22 / 21
2026-10-05	$0.75	$1,818,299,125	22 / 21
2026-10-06	$0.75	$1,818,299,125	22 / 21
2026-10-07	$0.75	$1,818,299,125	22 / 21
2026-10-08	$0.75	$1,818,299,125	22 / 21
2026-10-09	$0.75	$1,818,808,325	22 / 21
2026-10-10	$0.75	$1,818,808,325	21 / 21
2026-10-11	$0.75	$1,818,808,325	21 / 21
2026-10-12	$0.75	$1,818,808,325	22 / 21
2026-10-13	$0.75	$1,818,809,925	22 / 21
2026-10-14	$0.75	$1,818,809,925	22 / 21
2026-10-15	$0.75	$1,818,809,925	22 / 21
2026-10-16	$0.75	$1,818,688,504	22 / 21
2026-10-17	$0.75	$1,818,688,504	22 / 21
2026-10-18	$0.75	$1,818,383,924	22 / 21
2026-10-19	$0.75	$1,818,383,924	22 / 21
2026-10-20	$0.75	$1,818,383,924	22 / 21
2026-10-21	$0.75	$1,818,075,204	22 / 21
2026-10-22	$0.75	$1,817,649,732	21 / 21
2026-10-23	$0.75	$1,816,963,136	22 / 21
2026-10-24	$0.74	$1,815,340,022	22 / 21

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	17	12	1
2026-06-01	17	10	1
2026-07-01	18	10	1
2026-08-01	18	9	1
2026-09-01	19	9	1
2026-10-01	19	9	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Melius ResearchOct 8

$95.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$52.25$104.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain positive EPS with at least $0.55 per share in FY26Diluted EPS: $0.19 per share
Company revenue grows to at least $1.176 billion in FY26Revenue: $368.436M
Same-restaurant sales grow 4.5% to 6.5% in FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Open 75 to 77 net new restaurant locations in FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-48.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Cava Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth business whose multi-year view depends on opening more restaurants and lifting sales at existing locations. The thesis is intact, but confidence is medium and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Cava Group

CAVA is expensive versus peers, with a valuation premium of 5.2; the model’s confidence in that comparison is low. The evidence points to expectations that growth and expansion continue, but does not quantify what the market assumes about future results.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, restaurant growth is steady: locations rose 19.6% year over year to 476 in 2026-Q2, while same-restaurant sales reached 9.0%. Restaurant-level profit margin was 25.7%, above the full-year guidance range, though margins have fluctuated and cost pressure remains; a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.

What Cava Group hinges on

Over the next several quarters, the thesis hinges on continued restaurant openings, sustained sales gains at existing locations, and margins staying near management’s stated goal. Guidance and results from sector bellwethers such as MCD, SBUX, and YUM could signal whether the broader consumer backdrop remains supportive.