YUM CHINA HOLDINGS INC (YUMC)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$44.54-0.49%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge YUM CHINA HOLDINGS INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.34 → 3.35 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	3.04B
EPS	—	0.454
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	12.86B
EPS	—	2.95
Capital expenditure	$600M–$700M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	13.66B
EPS	—	3.345

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures of $600M to $700M in 2026	A supporting condition in YUM CHINA HOLDINGS INC's published investment case. The stated target is between $600 million and $700 million.	Intact	capital expenditures fall below $600 million or exceed $700 million in 2026	Capital expenditures: $129.251M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: between $600 million and $700 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026129,250,951 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Return $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2026	Yum China plans to return $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2026 through dividends and buybacks.	Intact	total shareholder returns fall below $1.5 billion in 2026	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Cash returned to shareholders from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management targets returning $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2026, about 10% of market capitalization. Actual capital returned in first half 2026 was $718 million. The trajectory is delivering on the stated capital return plan. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Add 1,900 net new stores in 2026	The company targets adding 1,900 net new stores in 2026, supporting revenue growth.	Improving	net new stores added fall below 1,900 in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management targets over 1,900 net new stores in 2026. Actual net new store openings were 636 in Q1 and 560 in Q2, totaling 1,196 in first half, on track to meet the target. The trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.35

$3.23 → $3.35 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$13.66B

$13.44B → $13.66B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.23	$13,439,645,734	15 / 21
2026-07-25	$3.27	$13,458,838,320	19 / 29
2026-07-26	$3.27	$13,458,838,320	19 / 29
2026-07-27	$3.27	$13,458,838,320	19 / 29
2026-07-28	$3.23	$13,439,645,734	15 / 21
2026-07-29	$3.23	$13,439,645,734	15 / 21
2026-07-30	$3.27	$13,458,838,320	19 / 29
2026-07-31	$3.27	$13,571,713,383	14 / 21
2026-08-01	$3.27	$13,571,713,383	14 / 21
2026-08-02	$3.28	$13,627,349,509	14 / 21
2026-08-03	$3.35	$13,651,790,520	19 / 29
2026-08-04	$3.35	$13,651,790,520	19 / 29
2026-08-05	$3.36	$13,656,376,730	19 / 29
2026-08-06	$3.28	$13,627,349,509	14 / 21
2026-08-08	$3.36	$13,656,514,660	19 / 29
2026-08-09	$3.28	$13,627,349,509	14 / 21
2026-08-10	$3.36	$13,656,514,660	19 / 29
2026-08-12	$3.36	$13,656,514,660	19 / 29
2026-08-13	$3.36	$13,656,514,660	19 / 29
2026-08-14	$3.28	$13,627,349,509	14 / 21
2026-08-15	$3.28	$13,627,349,509	14 / 21
2026-08-16	$3.28	$13,627,349,509	14 / 21
2026-08-17	$3.28	$13,627,349,509	14 / 21
2026-08-18	$3.28	$13,627,349,509	14 / 21
2026-08-19	$3.28	$13,627,349,509	14 / 21
2026-08-20	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	15 / 21
2026-08-21	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	15 / 21
2026-08-22	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	15 / 21
2026-08-23	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	15 / 21
2026-08-24	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	15 / 21
2026-08-25	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	15 / 21
2026-08-26	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	15 / 21
2026-08-27	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	15 / 21
2026-08-28	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	15 / 21
2026-08-29	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 21
2026-08-30	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 21
2026-08-31	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 21
2026-09-01	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 21
2026-09-02	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 21
2026-09-03	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 21
2026-09-04	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 21
2026-09-05	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 21
2026-09-06	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 21
2026-09-07	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 21
2026-09-08	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 21
2026-09-09	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 21
2026-09-10	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 20
2026-09-11	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 20
2026-09-12	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 20
2026-09-13	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 20
2026-09-14	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 20
2026-09-15	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 20
2026-09-16	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 20
2026-09-17	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 20
2026-09-18	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 20
2026-09-19	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 20
2026-09-20	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 20
2026-09-21	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 20
2026-09-22	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 20
2026-09-23	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 20
2026-09-24	$3.34	$13,663,589,212	14 / 20
2026-09-25	$3.34	$13,663,591,993	14 / 20
2026-09-26	$3.34	$13,663,591,993	14 / 20
2026-09-27	$3.34	$13,663,591,993	14 / 20
2026-09-28	$3.34	$13,663,591,993	14 / 20
2026-09-29	$3.34	$13,663,591,993	14 / 20
2026-09-30	$3.34	$13,663,591,993	14 / 20
2026-10-01	$3.34	$13,663,591,993	14 / 20
2026-10-02	$3.35	$13,664,885,541	14 / 20
2026-10-03	$3.35	$13,664,885,541	14 / 20
2026-10-04	$3.35	$13,664,885,541	14 / 20
2026-10-05	$3.35	$13,664,885,541	14 / 20
2026-10-06	$3.35	$13,663,387,283	14 / 20
2026-10-07	$3.35	$13,660,730,799	14 / 20
2026-10-08	$3.35	$13,660,730,799	14 / 20
2026-10-09	$3.35	$13,660,730,799	14 / 20
2026-10-10	$3.35	$13,660,730,799	14 / 20
2026-10-11	$3.35	$13,657,666,283	14 / 20
2026-10-12	$3.35	$13,657,666,283	14 / 20
2026-10-13	$3.35	$13,657,666,283	14 / 20
2026-10-14	$3.35	$13,657,666,283	14 / 20
2026-10-15	$3.35	$13,657,666,283	14 / 20
2026-10-16	$3.35	$13,657,666,283	14 / 20
2026-10-17	$3.35	$13,657,666,283	14 / 20
2026-10-18	$3.35	$13,657,666,283	14 / 20
2026-10-19	$3.35	$13,657,666,283	14 / 20
2026-10-20	$3.35	$13,657,666,283	14 / 20
2026-10-21	$3.35	$13,657,666,283	14 / 20
2026-10-22	$3.35	$13,657,666,283	14 / 20
2026-10-23	$3.35	$13,657,666,283	14 / 20
2026-10-24	$3.35	$13,657,666,283	14 / 20

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	23	1
2026-06-01	23	1
2026-07-01	22	1
2026-08-01	22	1
2026-09-01	21	1
2026-10-01	20	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures of $600M to $700M in 2026Capital expenditures: $129.251M
Return $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2026Required source inputs unavailable
Add 1,900 net new stores in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

YUM CHINA HOLDINGS INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a restaurant growth and capital-return business, with management on track against two major 2026 priorities. The multi-year view is intact, but the evidence is mixed overall: recent performance is holding in the top half of its industry, while broader factor readings are mostly neutral.

What's priced into YUM CHINA HOLDINGS INC

Valuation is tagged as justified, with expectations broadly aligned with the evidence and no identified fragility flags. The valuation measure is modestly above peers, so the market appears to recognize the business quality rather than price in a clear discount.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, management’s first-half progress supports its 2026 plans: it returned $718 million to shareholders and opened 1,196 net new stores. Capital spending remains less clear because actual figures have not been disclosed, and guidance cuts or continued peer misses could weaken the operating backdrop.

What YUM CHINA HOLDINGS INC hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on management continuing to meet its store-growth and capital-return priorities, while providing evidence on capital spending. Sector bellwethers’ results are another swing factor: continued earnings strength and higher guidance would support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.