Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$6.72-3.31%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue reaches at least $679.5 million in fiscal 2026: FY26 revenue guidance -8.0% to -7.0% YoY vs 679.5M target.
Sweetgreen aims to grow revenue to about $680 million in 2026. It targets a restaurant profit margin near 14.5%. The company plans to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA between $1 million and $6 million. New restaurant openings support revenue growth.
Sweetgreen faces pressure from recent earnings misses and a 24% stock drop. Profit margins remain thin near 14%. The company is not yet consistently profitable and free cash flow is negative. Revenue growth is slow and uncertain.
The market prices in about 8% revenue growth and values the stock roughly 11% above our fair value near $7. Our fair value is slightly below the Street median. We see risk in margin and profitability targets.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA remains negative below -$5 million in FY26
Target positive Adjusted EBITDA by improving operational efficiency and cost management across the business.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story in the Consumer Discretionary sector. The current thesis state reflects a cautious outlook due to recent earnings misses and fragile fundamentals.
The market appears to be pricing in a neutral valuation, with expectations that are slightly above average compared to peers. The current valuation reflects a durable premium, indicating that some level of optimism is already embedded in the stock.
Management has prioritized improving restaurant-level profit margins and achieving positive Adjusted EBITDA, but recent results show limited progress. Revenue growth from new restaurant openings is mixed, with some softness in comparable sales contributing to uncertainty.
The long-term thesis hinges on the company's ability to stabilize earnings and improve profitability amidst sector headwinds. Key factors include management's execution on their priorities and external influences like inflation and sector performance from leading companies.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. KeyBanc upgraded its sales forecast for Sweetgreen. It now expects flat same-store sales in Q4 2026 and growth in 2027. This suggests a positive shift in sales expectations. However, the company missed earnings expectations recently. This miss raises concerns about its financial performance and outlook.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA declined from $6.4 million in 2025-Q2 to $(0.2) million in 2026-Q2 and from $0.3 million in 2025-Q1 to $(8.1) million in 2026-Q1. Fiscal year 2026 guidance now anticipates negative Adjusted EBITDA between $(27.0) million and $(23.0) million, indicating a trajectory of declining profitability and limited progress toward positive Adjusted EBITDA.
“Adjusted EBITDA between $(27.0) million to $(23.0) million for fiscal year 2026.”
“Adjusted EBITDA between $1.0 million to $6.0 million for fiscal year 2026.”
“Adjusted EBITDA between $1.0 million to $6.0 million for fiscal year 2026.”
Breaks if: Profit margin falls below 13.5% in FY26
Focus on rebuilding restaurant-level profitability by improving profit margins through operational improvements and menu adjustments.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Restaurant-Level Profit Margin declined from 18.9% in 2025-Q2 to 13.1% in 2026-Q2 and from 17.9% in 2025-Q1 to 10.0% in 2026-Q1, reflecting margin pressure despite management's focus on rebuilding profitability. The trajectory shows declining margins, indicating limited progress on this priority.
“We remain focused on delivering a consistently great guest experience, bringing more guests into Sweetgreen, and rebuilding restaurant-level profitability.”
“We are building a more consistent guest experience and seeing improved execution across our restaurants, every day.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $670 million in FY26
Sweetgreen is focused on increasing its revenue, with a fiscal year 2026 guidance of $679.5 million.
In the next 1 to 3 years, SG's performance will depend on effective management execution and broader economic conditions. Not investment advice.