Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$9.82-3.91%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sweetgreen, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-28
Revenue	—	162.04M
EPS	—	-0.253
Annual ending 2026-12-28
Revenue	—	685.17M
EPS	—	-0.308
Annual ending 2027-12-28
Revenue	—	740.07M
EPS	—	-0.747

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve positive Adjusted EBITDA between $1 million and $6 million in 2026	The company plans to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA between $1 million and $6 million.	Broken	Adjusted EBITDA remains negative below -$5 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA declined from $6.4 million in 2025-Q2 to $(0.2) million in 2026-Q2 and from $0.3 million in 2025-Q1 to $(8.1) million in 2026-Q1. Fiscal year 2026 guidance now anticipates negative Adjusted EBITDA between $(27.0) million and $(23.0) million, indicating a trajectory of declining profitability and limited progress toward positive Adjusted EBITDA. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Restaurant-level profit margin near 14.2% to 14.7% in fiscal 2026	It targets a restaurant profit margin near 14.5%.	Intact	Profit margin falls below 13.5% in FY26	Gross margin: 13.07% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 14.2% to 14.7%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202613.067964 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Restaurant-Level Profit Margin declined from 18.9% in 2025-Q2 to 13.1% in 2026-Q2 and from 17.9% in 2025-Q1 to 10.0% in 2026-Q1, reflecting margin pressure despite management's focus on rebuilding profitability. The trajectory shows declining margins, indicating limited progress on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue reaches at least $679.5 million in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Sweetgreen, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=679.5 USD millions.	Broken	Revenue falls below $670 million in FY26	Revenue: $192.662M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=679.5 USD millions. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026192,662,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bae4acb4-d762-4105-96dd-ff094d8ffa29. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.75

$-0.63 → $-0.75 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.74B

$0.76B → $0.74B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.63	$755,575,586	8 / 11
2026-07-25	$-0.63	$755,575,586	8 / 11
2026-07-26	$-0.63	$755,575,586	8 / 11
2026-07-27	$-0.63	$755,575,586	8 / 11
2026-07-28	$-0.63	$755,575,586	8 / 11
2026-07-29	$-0.63	$755,575,586	8 / 11
2026-07-30	$-0.63	$755,575,586	8 / 11
2026-07-31	$-0.63	$755,025,586	7 / 11
2026-08-01	$-0.63	$755,025,586	7 / 11
2026-08-02	$-0.63	$755,025,586	7 / 11
2026-08-03	$-0.63	$755,025,586	7 / 11
2026-08-04	$-0.63	$755,025,586	7 / 11
2026-08-05	$-0.63	$755,025,586	7 / 11
2026-08-06	$-0.63	$755,025,586	7 / 11
2026-08-08	$-0.64	$753,668,443	7 / 11
2026-08-09	$-0.64	$753,668,443	7 / 11
2026-08-10	$-0.64	$753,668,443	7 / 11
2026-08-12	$-0.64	$753,668,443	7 / 11
2026-08-13	$-0.64	$753,668,443	7 / 11
2026-08-14	$-0.64	$753,668,443	7 / 11
2026-08-15	$-0.64	$753,668,443	7 / 11
2026-08-16	$-0.64	$753,668,443	7 / 11
2026-08-17	$-0.64	$753,668,443	7 / 11
2026-08-18	$-0.64	$753,668,443	7 / 11
2026-08-19	$-0.64	$753,668,443	7 / 11
2026-08-20	$-0.74	$733,174,527	7 / 11
2026-08-21	$-0.74	$733,174,527	7 / 11
2026-08-22	$-0.74	$733,174,527	7 / 11
2026-08-23	$-0.74	$733,174,527	7 / 11
2026-08-24	$-0.74	$733,174,527	7 / 11
2026-08-25	$-0.74	$733,174,527	7 / 11
2026-08-26	$-0.74	$733,174,527	7 / 11
2026-08-27	$-0.74	$733,174,527	7 / 11
2026-08-28	$-0.74	$733,174,527	7 / 11
2026-08-29	$-0.74	$733,174,527	7 / 11
2026-08-30	$-0.74	$733,174,527	7 / 11
2026-08-31	$-0.74	$733,174,527	7 / 11
2026-09-01	$-0.74	$733,174,527	7 / 11
2026-09-02	$-0.74	$733,174,527	7 / 11
2026-09-03	$-0.74	$733,174,527	7 / 11
2026-09-04	$-0.74	$733,174,527	7 / 11
2026-09-05	$-0.74	$733,174,527	7 / 11
2026-09-06	$-0.74	$733,174,527	7 / 11
2026-09-07	$-0.74	$733,174,527	7 / 11
2026-09-08	$-0.74	$733,174,527	7 / 11
2026-09-09	$-0.72	$736,210,241	7 / 11
2026-09-10	$-0.72	$736,210,241	7 / 11
2026-09-11	$-0.72	$736,210,241	7 / 11
2026-09-12	$-0.73	$735,646,563	7 / 11
2026-09-13	$-0.73	$735,646,563	7 / 11
2026-09-14	$-0.73	$735,646,563	7 / 11
2026-09-15	$-0.73	$735,646,563	7 / 11
2026-09-16	$-0.73	$735,646,563	7 / 11
2026-09-17	$-0.73	$735,646,563	7 / 11
2026-09-18	$-0.73	$735,646,563	7 / 11
2026-09-19	$-0.73	$735,646,563	7 / 11
2026-09-20	$-0.73	$735,646,563	7 / 11
2026-09-21	$-0.73	$735,646,563	7 / 11
2026-09-22	$-0.73	$735,646,563	7 / 11
2026-09-23	$-0.73	$735,646,563	7 / 11
2026-09-24	$-0.73	$735,646,563	7 / 11
2026-09-25	$-0.73	$735,646,563	7 / 11
2026-09-26	$-0.73	$735,682,277	7 / 11
2026-09-27	$-0.74	$735,634,760	7 / 11
2026-09-28	$-0.74	$735,634,760	7 / 10
2026-09-29	$-0.74	$735,634,760	7 / 10
2026-09-30	$-0.75	$738,988,606	7 / 10
2026-10-01	$-0.75	$739,015,395	7 / 10
2026-10-02	$-0.75	$739,015,395	7 / 10
2026-10-03	$-0.75	$739,015,395	7 / 10
2026-10-04	$-0.75	$739,015,395	7 / 10
2026-10-05	$-0.75	$739,287,380	7 / 10
2026-10-06	$-0.75	$739,287,380	7 / 10
2026-10-07	$-0.75	$739,287,380	7 / 10
2026-10-08	$-0.75	$739,287,380	7 / 10
2026-10-09	$-0.75	$739,287,380	7 / 10
2026-10-10	$-0.75	$739,287,380	7 / 10
2026-10-11	$-0.75	$739,287,380	7 / 10
2026-10-12	$-0.75	$739,287,380	7 / 10
2026-10-13	$-0.75	$739,287,380	7 / 10
2026-10-14	$-0.75	$739,287,380	7 / 10
2026-10-15	$-0.75	$739,287,380	7 / 10
2026-10-16	$-0.75	$738,295,071	7 / 10
2026-10-17	$-0.75	$738,295,071	7 / 10
2026-10-18	$-0.75	$738,295,071	7 / 10
2026-10-19	$-0.75	$738,295,071	7 / 10
2026-10-20	$-0.75	$738,679,686	7 / 10
2026-10-21	$-0.75	$738,679,686	7 / 10
2026-10-22	$-0.75	$739,209,802	7 / 10
2026-10-23	$-0.75	$739,209,802	7 / 10
2026-10-24	$-0.75	$740,072,105	7 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	12	2
2026-06-01	4	11	1
2026-07-01	4	11	1
2026-08-01	4	10	1
2026-09-01	6	10	1
2026-10-01	6	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoSep 28

$11.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$6.05$12.10

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve positive Adjusted EBITDA between $1 million and $6 million in 2026Published status: Broken
Restaurant-level profit margin near 14.2% to 14.7% in fiscal 2026Gross margin: 13.07%
Revenue reaches at least $679.5 million in fiscal 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-47.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sweetgreen, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a restaurant growth story with a turnaround element, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is stable, but recent results are weak, earnings quality is fragile, and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Sweetgreen, Inc.

SG is valued at a substantial premium to peers, while the evidence flags the valuation as expensive and the premium as unjustified by weak execution. The expectations gap is elevated, so the current valuation appears to assume stronger delivery than recent results support.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the next few quarters, new restaurant openings may continue to support revenue, but comparable-sales softness and falling restaurant-level margins constrain progress. Adjusted EBITDA has weakened, fiscal 2026 guidance anticipates a loss, and consecutive earnings misses make another near-term miss a meaningful risk.

What Sweetgreen, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on whether management can restore restaurant-level margins and move Adjusted EBITDA toward positive levels while sustaining growth from new openings. Near term, a guidance cut would add pressure; results and guidance from MCD, SBUX, and YUM may also signal whether the sector backdrop remains supportive.