Reading SAH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SAH free→Reading SAH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SAH free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto & Truck DealershipsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company is capital-friendly in its capital moves. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 19% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $83.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $84 SAH trades at 12× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $104 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $67–$90. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 19% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.74x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.68 → $1.76 (+4.4% / 30d). 7 raised, 1 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 54% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.4% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$142.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$348.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,364.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: More share repurchases can show management's confidence. This can help share value.
Confirms:Sonic repurchases more than $100 million in shares within the next quarter.
Disproves:No big share repurchases happen in the next quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Buy rating supports revenue growth expectations.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Sonic Automotive, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its first fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “Earnings Press Release”). A copy of the Earnings Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and a copy of the earnings call presentation materials is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$67.00 – $90.00 (median $72.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SAH Sonic Automotive, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ORLY O’Reilly Automotive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AZO AutoZone | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
PAG Penske Automotive Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | full | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Expand the share repurchase program with an additional $500 million authorization.
Focus on maintaining revenue growth despite market conditions.
Continue efforts to improve gross profit through operational efficiencies.
Why it matters: Revenue growth helps us see if the company is keeping its market position.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 4% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported above 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Better gross profit margins show improved cost control and stronger pricing power.
Confirms:Gross profit margin is expected to be above 66% in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Gross profit margin reported below 66% in the next earnings release.
Why it matters: Same-store sales growth is crucial for the health of Sonic's core dealership business.
Confirms:Franchised Dealerships saw same-store sales grow by over 2% from last year.
Disproves:Franchised Dealerships had same-store sales drop below -2% from last year.
Why it matters: More details on the share buyback may show better capital use and investor trust.
Confirms:They announced more share buybacks beyond the $500 million already approved.
Disproves:No further announcements or delays in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Higher profit margins show good cost control and smart pricing.
Confirms:Gross profit margin improves to above 16% in Q2.
Disproves:Gross profit margin declines or stays below 16% in Q2.
Why it matters: Stable revenue in the EchoPark segment is important for Sonic's growth.
Confirms:EchoPark segment revenue grows at or above 4% each year.
Disproves:EchoPark segment revenue growth drops below 4% each year.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows strong cash flow and a promise to give value to shareholders.
Confirms:Sonic announces a dividend increase above the current $0.41 per share.
Disproves:Sonic maintains the dividend at $0.41 per share without an increase.
Sales miss indicates potential revenue growth issues.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Effective May 6, 2026, the Compensation Committee approved grants of performance-based restricted stock units under the Sonic Automotive, Inc. 2026 Equity Incentive Plan to the following Executive Officers in the following amounts: Mr. David Bruton Smith, 69,872 units; Mr. Jeff Dyke, 38,175 units; and Mr. Heath R. Byrd, 26,183 units. These restricte…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (e) On April 29, 2026, Sonic Automotive, Inc. (the “Company”) held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”). At the Annual Meeting, the Company’s stockholders approved the Sonic Automotive, Inc. 2026 Equity Incentive Plan (the “2026 Equity Incentive Plan”). The 2026 Equity Incentive Plan was adopted by the Company’s Board of Di…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On April 30, 2026, in the Earnings Press Release, the Company announced the approval of a quarterly cash dividend. On April 30, 2026, the Company announced that the Board of Directors approved an additional $500.0 million share repurchase authorization. Repurchases under the authorization may be made from time to time based on market conditions and other factors. Together with unused capacity under previously approved repurchase authorizations, the Company has $528.0…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 27, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), Sonic Automotive, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Bridge Facility Credit Agreement (the “Bridge Facility Credit Agreement”) with PNC Bank, National Association (“PNC”), as administrative agent and lender. The Bridge Facility Credit Agreement provides for a senior unsecured term loan facility in an aggregate principal amount of $150 million (the “Bridge Facility”). Also on the Closing Date, the Company borr…