Reading DRVN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DRVN free→Reading DRVN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DRVN free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto & Truck DealershipsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. This assessment hinges on guidance changes, as a cut could negatively impact estimates, while positive trends from sector bellwethers could provide momentum. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.46. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $13 DRVN trades at 10× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $14 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $11–$18. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 5% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.68x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.34 → $0.28 (-15.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 7 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 55% of analysts rate Buy.
8 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 23.0% above current price.
2 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$200.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$317.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,638.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This growth is key to reaching the $1.95-$2.05 billion target for 2026. Meeting this target shows strong demand and operational success.
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported at or above $500 million.
Disproves:Q2 revenue reported below $500 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DRVN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 11, 2026, Driven Brands Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release, furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference, announcing the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended March 28, 2026 (the “Press Release”). The information provided pursuant to Item 2.02, including the exhibits attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchang…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$11.00 – $18.00 (median $15.88) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DRVN Driven Brands Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | fair | elevated |
ORLY O’Reilly Automotive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AZO AutoZone | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
PAG Penske Automotive Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | full | moderate |
13 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Aim to achieve revenue growth within the range of $1.95 to $2.05 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Target to generate free cash flow between $125 million and $145 million for fiscal year 2026.
Target an adjusted diluted EPS range of $1.15 to $1.25 for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting this EPS target shows strong profits and good operations. It is important for investors.
Confirms:Adjusted diluted EPS is at or above $1.20.
Disproves:Adjusted diluted EPS is below $1.15.
Why it matters: Achieving this level of cash flow is critical to meet the $125-$145 million target for 2026. It shows financial health.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported at or above $70 million for Q2.
Disproves:Free cash flow reported below $70 million for Q2.
Why it matters: Solving this issue would help investor confidence. It would also support the share price. Keeping listing status is very important.
Confirms:They announced they follow Nasdaq listing rules.
Disproves:They took more steps toward delisting.
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. As previously disclosed in a Form 12b-25 Notification of Late Filing (the “Form 12b-25”) filed by the Company on May 8, 2026, the Company is delayed in filing its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 28, 2026 (the “1Q2026 10-Q”) with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). On June 1, 2026, the Company received a notice (the “Notice”) from The Nasdaq Stock…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 19, 2026, Driven Brands Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release, furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference, announcing the Company’s financial results for the year and quarter ended December 27, 2025 (the “Press Release”). The information provided pursuant to Item 2.02, including the exhibits attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securit…
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. As previously disclosed in a Form 12b-25 Notification of Late Filing (the “Form 12b-25”) filed by the Company on February 26, 2026, the Company is delayed in filing FY2025 Form 10-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). On April 15, 2026, the Company received a notice (the “Notice”) from The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“Nasdaq”) notifying the Company that, as a result of t…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Amendment to Credit Agreement On April 24, 2026, Driven Holdings Parent LLC (“Holdings”) and Driven Holdings, LLC (“Borrower”), indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of Driven Brands Holdings Inc. (the “Company”), entered into an amendment (the “Amendment”) that also provides for a limited waiver to their revolving credit facility under the Credit Agreement, dated as of May 27, 2021 (as amended, restated, supplemented, or otherwise modified, the “Credit…