Driven Brands Holdings, Inc. (DRVN)

Q: What's priced into Driven Brands Holdings, Inc. (DRVN) stock?

DRVN is valued cheaply versus peers, and the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The priced-in assessment is marked justified, with low fragility; valuation has risen recently, but the evidence does not show that expectations have become fragile.

Q: What does the Driven Brands Holdings, Inc. (DRVN) outlook hinge on?

The multi-year view hinges on Take 5 sustaining same-store sales growth and DRVN delivering its 2026 revenue and cash-flow plans. A guidance cut would weaken the thesis, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support the business backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those peers could remove that support.

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$11.74-0.68%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Driven Brands Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.44 → 1.44 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	499.53M
EPS	—	0.322
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.95B–$2.05B	2.01B
EPS	$1.15–$1.25non-GAAP	1.196
EBITDA	$430M–$460Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.19B
EPS	—	1.441

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Generate $125-$145 million free cash flow in 2026	It aims to generate $135 million free cash flow.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $125M in FY26	Free cash flow: $28.912M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $125M to $145M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202628,912,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management consistently expects free cash flow generation between $125 million and $145 million for fiscal 2026. Actual cash from operating activities was $57.2 million in 2026-Q1 and $57.2 million in 2026-Q2 (partial data), indicating steady cash flow generation consistent with guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth to $1.95-$2.05 billion in 2026	A primary condition in Driven Brands Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$2.0B.	Intact	revenue falls below $1.95B in FY26	Revenue: $507.416M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.0B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026507,416,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7769f04a-293b-4d5f-8b6b-b83740ea8a6f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.862 billion in fiscal 2025 to quarterly revenues of $484.4 million in 2026-Q1 and $507.4 million in 2026-Q2. Management reiterates the full-year 2026 revenue outlook of $1.95 to $2.05 billion, indicating delivery on this growth target is on track. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain valuation discount to peers with PE near 11	A supporting condition in Driven Brands Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE <= 12.	Intact	PE rises above 15 without earnings growth	P/E (TTM): 9.39x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 20269.392 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: DRVN:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.44

$1.48 → $1.44 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.19B

$2.18B → $2.19B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.48	$2,176,503,971	7 / 7
2026-07-25	$1.48	$2,176,503,971	7 / 7
2026-07-26	$1.48	$2,176,503,971	7 / 7
2026-07-27	$1.48	$2,176,503,971	7 / 7
2026-07-28	$1.48	$2,176,503,971	7 / 7
2026-07-29	$1.48	$2,176,503,971	7 / 7
2026-07-30	$1.48	$2,176,503,971	7 / 7
2026-07-31	$1.48	$2,176,503,971	7 / 7
2026-08-01	$1.48	$2,176,503,971	7 / 7
2026-08-02	$1.48	$2,174,340,334	7 / 7
2026-08-03	$1.48	$2,174,340,334	7 / 7
2026-08-04	$1.48	$2,174,340,334	7 / 7
2026-08-05	$1.48	$2,174,340,334	7 / 7
2026-08-06	$1.48	$2,174,340,334	7 / 7
2026-08-07	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-08	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-09	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-10	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-11	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-12	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-13	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-14	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-15	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-16	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-17	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-18	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-19	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-20	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-08-21	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-08-22	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-08-23	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-08-24	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-08-25	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-08-26	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-08-27	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-08-28	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-08-29	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-08-30	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-08-31	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-09-01	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-09-02	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-09-03	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-09-04	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-09-05	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-09-06	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-09-07	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-09-08	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-09-09	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-09-10	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-09-11	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 7
2026-09-12	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 7
2026-09-13	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 7
2026-09-14	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 7
2026-09-15	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 7
2026-09-16	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 8
2026-09-17	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 8
2026-09-18	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 8
2026-09-19	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 8
2026-09-20	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$1.44	$2,187,080,635	8 / 8
2026-09-25	$1.44	$2,187,080,635	8 / 8
2026-09-26	$1.44	$2,187,080,635	8 / 8
2026-09-27	$1.44	$2,187,080,635	8 / 8
2026-09-28	$1.44	$2,187,080,635	8 / 8
2026-09-29	$1.44	$2,187,080,635	8 / 8
2026-09-30	$1.44	$2,187,080,635	8 / 8
2026-10-01	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-02	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-03	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-04	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-05	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-06	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-07	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-08	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-09	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-10	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-11	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-12	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-13	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-14	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-15	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-16	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-17	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-18	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-19	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-20	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-21	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-22	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-23	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-24	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	5	0
2026-06-01	6	5	0
2026-07-01	6	5	0
2026-08-01	6	5	0
2026-09-01	6	6	1
2026-10-01	6	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Generate $125-$145 million free cash flow in 2026Free cash flow: $28.912M
Revenue growth to $1.95-$2.05 billion in 2026Revenue: $507.416M
Maintain valuation discount to peers with PE near 11P/E (TTM): 9.39x

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-39.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Driven Brands Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented business with robust earnings quality, though recent financial performance is neutral and risk is elevated. The long-term thesis is intact, with Take 5 sales and revenue plans on track, while free-cash-flow delivery is less certain.

What's priced into Driven Brands Holdings, Inc.

DRVN is valued cheaply versus peers, and the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The priced-in assessment is marked justified, with low fragility; valuation has risen recently, but the evidence does not show that expectations have become fragile.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management has reaffirmed its 2026 revenue and free-cash-flow outlook, and Take 5 same-store sales have continued to grow. Earnings beats and a share buyback were recent positive events, but free-cash-flow progress is mixed, and past guidance risk plus recent peer misses remain concerns.

What Driven Brands Holdings, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on Take 5 sustaining same-store sales growth and DRVN delivering its 2026 revenue and cash-flow plans. A guidance cut would weaken the thesis, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support the business backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those peers could remove that support.

Bottom line

Over the next one to three years, the thesis rests on continued execution rather than a clear change in recent fundamentals. The valuation looks cheap versus peers, but elevated risk and mixed cash-flow evidence leave meaningful execution questions. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	499.53M
EPS	—	0.322
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.95B–$2.05B	2.01B
EPS	$1.15–$1.25non-GAAP	1.196
EBITDA	$430M–$460Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.19B
EPS	—	1.441

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.44

$1.48 → $1.44 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.19B

$2.18B → $2.19B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.48	$2,176,503,971	7 / 7
2026-07-25	$1.48	$2,176,503,971	7 / 7
2026-07-26	$1.48	$2,176,503,971	7 / 7
2026-07-27	$1.48	$2,176,503,971	7 / 7
2026-07-28	$1.48	$2,176,503,971	7 / 7
2026-07-29	$1.48	$2,176,503,971	7 / 7
2026-07-30	$1.48	$2,176,503,971	7 / 7
2026-07-31	$1.48	$2,176,503,971	7 / 7
2026-08-01	$1.48	$2,176,503,971	7 / 7
2026-08-02	$1.48	$2,174,340,334	7 / 7
2026-08-03	$1.48	$2,174,340,334	7 / 7
2026-08-04	$1.48	$2,174,340,334	7 / 7
2026-08-05	$1.48	$2,174,340,334	7 / 7
2026-08-06	$1.48	$2,174,340,334	7 / 7
2026-08-07	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-08	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-09	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-10	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-11	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-12	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-13	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-14	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-15	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-16	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-17	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-18	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-19	$1.48	$2,174,313,061	7 / 7
2026-08-20	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-08-21	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-08-22	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-08-23	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-08-24	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-08-25	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-08-26	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-08-27	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-08-28	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-08-29	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-08-30	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-08-31	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-09-01	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-09-02	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-09-03	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-09-04	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-09-05	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-09-06	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-09-07	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-09-08	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-09-09	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-09-10	$1.45	$2,187,831,739	7 / 7
2026-09-11	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 7
2026-09-12	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 7
2026-09-13	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 7
2026-09-14	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 7
2026-09-15	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 7
2026-09-16	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 8
2026-09-17	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 8
2026-09-18	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 8
2026-09-19	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 8
2026-09-20	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$1.45	$2,187,080,635	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$1.44	$2,187,080,635	8 / 8
2026-09-25	$1.44	$2,187,080,635	8 / 8
2026-09-26	$1.44	$2,187,080,635	8 / 8
2026-09-27	$1.44	$2,187,080,635	8 / 8
2026-09-28	$1.44	$2,187,080,635	8 / 8
2026-09-29	$1.44	$2,187,080,635	8 / 8
2026-09-30	$1.44	$2,187,080,635	8 / 8
2026-10-01	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-02	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-03	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-04	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-05	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-06	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-07	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-08	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-09	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-10	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-11	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-12	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-13	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-14	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-15	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-16	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-17	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-18	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-19	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-20	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-21	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-22	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-23	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8
2026-10-24	$1.44	$2,186,998,592	8 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings