Reading PHIN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PHIN free→Reading PHIN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PHIN free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. However, earnings quality is neutral, and the company has a capital-unfriendly stance. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and trends among sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $81.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $84 PHIN trades at 16× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median. Our $82 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 2% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.30x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.57 → $1.58 (+0.2% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 28.3% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$139.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$245.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,036.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
As of June 15, 2026, confidence changed to medium. Risk fell, indicating a shift in the assessment of potential volatility. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, suggesting ongoing challenges in the market environment. Overall, the valuation is considered fair, reflecting that it is priced roughly in line with peer multiples.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This would signal that revenue growth is slowing, which is a concern for investors.
Confirms:Q2 net sales growth is reported below 1% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 net sales growth exceeds 1% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PHIN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026 , PHINIA Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The earnings call presentation to which the attached press release refers is available at investors.phinia.com, but it is not incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PHIN PHINIA, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ORLY O’Reilly Automotive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AZO AutoZone | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
PAG Penske Automotive Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | full | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Improve operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Focus on increasing cash flow from operations to support growth.
Why it matters: If operating income growth goes below this level, it may show cost management problems. This could hurt overall profits.
Confirms:Operating income growth reported at less than 10% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income growth remains at or above 10% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: A lower margin shows less profit and more problems in operations.
Confirms:EBITDA margin is under 13.7%.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin is at or above 13.7%.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow indicates financial health. It supports growth and investment plans.
Confirms:Cash from operations reported above $X million in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operations reported below $X million in Q2.
Why it matters: New contracts here would help growth and diversify the business.
Confirms:A new major contract in alternative fuels was announced.
Disproves:No new big contracts were announced in alternative fuels.
Why it matters: Better operating income means PHIN is controlling costs. This is important for making money long-term.
Confirms:Operating income goes up from the last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income goes down from the last quarter.
Why it matters: A decline would indicate potential cash flow issues, affecting growth plans.
Confirms:Cash from operations reported lower than the previous year.
Disproves:Cash from operations reported higher than the previous year.
Why it matters: A negative trend in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges. This may impact investor confidence in PHINIA's growth prospects.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth reported as negative year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth reported as positive year over year.
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant On February 12, 2026, the Company filed its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, PwC completed its procedures on the Company’s consolidated financial statements as of and for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, and the dismissal of PwC was effective thereon. PwC’s reports on the Company’s consolidated financial statements as of and for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024 did not co…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 12, 2026 , PHINIA Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The earnings call presentation to which the attached press release refers is available at investors.phinia.com, but it is not incorporated herein by reference. The information contain…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On October 15, 2025, PHINIA Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a settlement agreement (the “Settlement Agreement”) with BorgWarner Inc. (“BorgWarner”) to resolve previously disclosed claims asserted by BorgWarner against the Company in Delaware Superior Court pursuant to which BorgWarner sought, among other things, a judicial declaration that the Company is obligated under the tax matters agreement, dated as of July 3, 2023 (the “Tax Matters Agreement…