PHINIA, Inc. (PHIN)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$57.32+0.32%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge PHINIA, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	896.11M
EPS	—	1.436
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$3.57B–$3.67B	3.64B
EPS	—	5.937
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.77B
EPS	—	6.848

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow near $220M	A supporting condition in PHINIA, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$220M free cash flow.	Under Pressure	Free cash flow falls below $200M in FY26	Free cash flow: $59M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$220M free cash flow. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202659,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net cash from operating activities rose from $57 million in 2025-Q2 to $91 million in 2026-Q2, and adjusted free cash flow increased by $54 million to $74 million in 2026-Q2. Management consistently highlights working capital discipline and capital expenditure control. The trajectory shows delivering on cash flow growth aligned with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain stable management and execution	A supporting condition in PHINIA, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain stable management and execution.	Under Pressure	Management instability or execution failures reported	Qualitative: 1 exec promotion, 1 earnings miss, 1 auditor change Pedro Abreu promoted to President; Q2 earnings missed; PwC dismissed as auditor; Q1 and Q4 earnings beat. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near 13.8%	Profit margins stay near 14%.	Broken	Operating margin falls below 13% in FY25	Operating margin: 8.51% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~13.8% operating margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20268.510638 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 83310f99-7266-41c4-8ab0-efe5b67b6924. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income was $80 million in 2026-Q2, slightly down from $89 million in 2025-Q2, while adjusted EBITDA increased modestly with margins around 13.0% to 13.8%. Management emphasizes cost control and supplier savings, with margin guidance for 2026 at 13.5% to 14.1%. The trajectory shows mixed operating income but steady adjusted EBITDA margin, indicating limited progress but ongoing focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Annual revenue growth near 3.6% to $3.62B	A primary condition in PHINIA, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3.6% YoY revenue growth to ~$3.62B.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below ~3.6% in FY26	Revenue growth: 5.62% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3.6% YoY revenue growth to ~$3.62B. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Jul 30, 20265.617978 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 83310f99-7266-41c4-8ab0-efe5b67b6924. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$3.75B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$3,749,988,420	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$3,749,988,420	4 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$3,749,988,420	4 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$3,749,988,420	4 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$3,749,988,420	4 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$3,749,988,420	4 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-03	$6.90	$3,774,048,230	5 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-05	$6.90	$3,774,128,230	5 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-09	$6.90	$3,775,528,230	5 / 5
2026-08-10	$6.90	$3,775,528,230	5 / 5
2026-08-12	$6.90	$3,775,528,230	5 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	2
2026-06-01	4	1
2026-07-01	4	1
2026-08-01	4	1
2026-09-01	4	1
2026-10-01	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 7 · prior Jul 31

$80.00 → $68.00-15.0%

$0$44.00$88.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow near $220MPublished status: Under Pressure
Maintain stable management and executionPublished status: Under Pressure
Operating margin near 13.8%Published status: Broken
Annual revenue growth near 3.6% to $3.62BRevenue growth: 5.62%

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

PHINIA, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PHIN is a business-growth thesis with a cyclical sector influence, rather than a clear turnaround story. The thesis is intact, but confidence has eased from high to medium after a recent earnings miss.

What's priced into PHINIA, Inc.

The evidence tags valuation as justified and identifies PHIN as cheap versus peers, with no pricing fragility flags. The expectations gap is negative, but the snapshot does not explain its size or meaning in enough detail to draw a stronger conclusion about what the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term, sales and cash flow have been strong, while operating income was lower year over year and adjusted EBITDA margins were steady. Management is on track with growth and cash flow priorities, but margin progress is mixed, and the run of earnings misses makes the next guidance update important.

What PHINIA, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the key company-specific risk is another guidance cut, while continued growth and cash generation would support the existing thesis. Sector conditions also matter: continued strength from GPC, BWA, and APTV may support the backdrop, while weaker results or guidance from those companies could remove that support.