Carvana (CVNA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-10-30
$68.29-0.03%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put CVNA beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 50% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 41% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskCVNA’s case rests on profitable growth, with unit expansion supporting higher margins. Revenue growth slowed to 42% year over year in Q3, and reported GAAP EPS missed consensus. Q3 revenue still rose 42%, while the quarter’s GAAP EPS missed by 17%. CVNA trades at 13× P/E versus the 15× peer median. Despite modest expectations versus our view, the latest earnings miss challenges execution. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 36%. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% below where it trades; our read remains intact. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. CVNA is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 24 analysts currently covering CVNA (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 15 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for CVNA in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVNA Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Automotive Retail — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put CVNA next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Deliver profitable growth and progress toward margin goals
Higher costs and an earnings miss challenge profitable growth despite record sales.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $68.29
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $68.29.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Deliver profitable growth and progress toward margin goals
Higher-end EBITDA outlook alongside 3-million-unit and margin targets supports profitable growth.
Advances: Deliver profitable growth and progress toward margin goals
Reported unit growth and record profitability provide substantial evidence of execution.
Advances: Deliver profitable growth and progress toward margin goals
Earnings-call coverage highlights revenue outperformance and growth supporting objectives.
Advances: Deliver profitable growth and progress toward margin goals
Profit surge and nearly 40% sales growth materially support profitable growth.
Advances: Increase retail units sold
Revenue beat supports increased sales, though the headline provides limited detail.
Advances: Deliver profitable growth and progress toward margin goals
Stronger income and record vehicle sales support growth and profitability.
Federal probe involving an outside investor creates uncertainty and weighs on shares.
