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Carvana (CVNA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto & Truck DealershipsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$70.03+1.64%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance compared with sector peers that are above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 42% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Auto & Truck Dealerships
- Market cap
- $70.31B
- Employees
- 23,100
- IPO date
- 2017-03-31
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $70.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$120.49consensus
Range $101.37 – $207.88
vs price: -42% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$17.18consensus
Range $17.18 – $17.18
vs price: +308% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $69 CVNA trades at 14× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $119 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $88–$600. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
13.7x
peer 18.5x · own history —
Premium
0.7x peer
Growth the price needs
-42%
our forecast 30%
Our fair value
$119.05
range $100.68 – $200.81
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 42% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 30%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
81st pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.63x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
11th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish13 analysts, 67% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.42 → $0.42 (-0.1% / 30d). 3 raised, 3 cut, 13 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 77.2% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$283.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$583.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,676.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for Q2 Adjusted EBITDA results
Why it matters: This will show if Carvana is on track to achieve record Adjusted EBITDA.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 Adjusted EBITDA was at or above $(50) million.
Disproves:Q2 Adjusted EBITDA was worse than $(100) million.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-161d agoCNBC
Advances: Increase retail units sold
Expanding into new vehicles supports growth in retail units sold.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like PAG, KMX, and LAD keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting CVNA and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CVNA raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If CVNA cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like PAG, KMX, and LAD start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping CVNA and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits CVNA and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-291mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Carvana Co. (the "Company") announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026 by issuing a letter to its shareholders and a press release. The Company will also be holding a conference call on April 29, 2026 to discuss its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the Company's letter to its shareholders and press release are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exh…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.