Carvana (CVNA)

Q: What's priced into Carvana (CVNA) stock?

The valuation suggests that the market views CVNA as cheap compared to its peers, with a low expectations gap. However, the fragility of the current setup is noted, as weak execution quality could impact future performance.

Q: What does the Carvana (CVNA) outlook hinge on?

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on growth plans. Additionally, external factors such as inflation trends and performance of sector bellwethers will play a crucial role in shaping the future outlook.

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$58.83-2.95%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Carvana’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.21 → 2.21 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA margin near 10%	A primary condition in Carvana's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% margin.	Intact	adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 8% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in all 7 quarters from 2024-Q4 through 2026-Q2. Adjusted EBITDA increased from $359 million in 2024-Q4 to $769 million in 2026-Q2. Management projects full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA between $2.7 and $3.0 billion. The trajectory shows consistent growth and delivery aligned with stated targets. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Expand production capacity to support growth	A supporting condition in Carvana's published investment case. The stated target is capacity expansion progress on track.	Intact	no meaningful capacity expansion or delays reported next year	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Retail units sold grow at least 30% YoY	Carvana is growing retail units sold by 40% year over year.	Intact	retail units sold growth falls below 20% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in all 7 quarters from 2024-Q4 through 2026-Q2. Retail units sold increased from 133,898 in 2025-Q1 to 197,325 in 2026-Q2, a 47% increase. Management consistently emphasizes the goal of reaching 3 million annual sales by 2030-2035. The trajectory is delivering strong growth aligned with stated objectives. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain valuation discount to peers	A supporting condition in Carvana's published investment case. The stated target is PE ratio <= 15.	Intact	PE ratio rises above 20 without earnings growth	P/E (TTM): 11.68x As of 2026-10-15; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 15, 202611.6802 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 15, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: CVNA:2026-10-15. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.21

$2.11 → $2.21 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$36.47B

$34.76B → $36.47B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.11	$34,764,232,650	14 / 22
2026-07-25	$2.11	$34,784,591,740	14 / 22
2026-07-26	$2.11	$34,784,591,740	14 / 22
2026-07-27	$2.05	$35,025,754,998	11 / 17
2026-07-28	$2.11	$34,784,591,740	14 / 22
2026-07-29	$2.04	$34,995,967,725	11 / 17
2026-07-30	$2.10	$34,756,169,760	13 / 22
2026-07-31	$2.13	$35,572,557,190	13 / 22
2026-08-01	$2.17	$35,954,057,160	11 / 16
2026-08-02	$2.23	$35,888,149,350	14 / 22
2026-08-03	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-04	$2.23	$35,888,149,350	14 / 22
2026-08-05	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-06	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-07	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-08	$2.23	$35,888,149,350	14 / 22
2026-08-09	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-10	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-11	$2.24	$35,888,149,350	14 / 22
2026-08-12	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-13	$2.24	$35,888,149,350	14 / 22
2026-08-14	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-15	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-16	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-17	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-18	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-19	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-20	$2.21	$36,252,651,330	11 / 16
2026-08-21	$2.21	$36,252,651,330	11 / 16
2026-08-22	$2.21	$36,265,770,377	11 / 16
2026-08-23	$2.21	$36,265,770,377	11 / 16
2026-08-24	$2.21	$36,265,770,377	11 / 16
2026-08-25	$2.21	$36,323,870,377	11 / 16
2026-08-26	$2.21	$36,323,870,377	11 / 16
2026-08-27	$2.21	$36,323,870,377	11 / 16
2026-08-28	$2.21	$36,323,870,377	11 / 16
2026-08-29	$2.21	$36,323,870,377	11 / 16
2026-08-30	$2.21	$36,323,870,377	11 / 16
2026-08-31	$2.21	$36,323,870,377	11 / 16
2026-09-01	$2.21	$36,323,870,377	11 / 16
2026-09-02	$2.21	$36,323,870,377	11 / 16
2026-09-03	$2.21	$36,323,870,377	11 / 16
2026-09-04	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-05	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-06	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-07	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-08	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-09	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-10	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-11	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-12	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-13	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-14	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-15	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-16	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-17	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-18	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-19	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-20	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-21	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-22	$2.21	$36,323,859,846	11 / 16
2026-09-23	$2.21	$36,323,859,846	11 / 16
2026-09-24	$2.21	$36,323,859,846	11 / 16
2026-09-25	$2.21	$36,323,859,846	11 / 16
2026-09-26	$2.21	$36,323,859,846	11 / 16
2026-09-27	$2.21	$36,323,859,846	11 / 16
2026-09-28	$2.21	$36,323,859,846	11 / 16
2026-09-29	$2.21	$36,323,859,846	11 / 16
2026-09-30	$2.20	$36,334,507,489	11 / 16
2026-10-01	$2.20	$36,334,507,489	11 / 16
2026-10-02	$2.20	$36,334,507,489	12 / 16
2026-10-03	$2.20	$36,342,007,489	12 / 17
2026-10-04	$2.20	$36,342,028,853	12 / 17
2026-10-05	$2.20	$36,342,028,853	12 / 17
2026-10-06	$2.20	$36,342,028,853	12 / 17
2026-10-07	$2.20	$36,400,037,944	11 / 17
2026-10-08	$2.20	$36,419,554,623	11 / 17
2026-10-09	$2.20	$36,419,554,623	11 / 17
2026-10-10	$2.20	$36,429,968,669	11 / 17
2026-10-11	$2.20	$36,429,968,669	11 / 17
2026-10-12	$2.20	$36,429,968,669	11 / 17
2026-10-13	$2.20	$36,429,968,669	11 / 17
2026-10-14	$2.20	$36,429,968,669	11 / 17
2026-10-15	$2.21	$36,473,538,605	11 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	17	8	1
2026-06-01	16	7	1
2026-07-01	16	7	1
2026-08-01	16	7	1
2026-09-01	16	7	1
2026-10-01	16	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 15 · prior Jul 30

$90.00 → $88.00-2.2%

StephensOct 6

$83.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 6 · prior Jul 21

$94.00 → $80.00-14.9%

OppenheimerSep 30

$90.00New observation · no comparable prior

JefferiesSep 29

$88.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$51.70$103.40

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA margin near 10%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Expand production capacity to support growthQualitative condition
Retail units sold grow at least 30% YoYDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain valuation discount to peersP/E (TTM): 11.68x

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-41.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Carvana outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth in the consumer discretionary sector. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to increasing retail units sold.

What's priced into Carvana

The valuation suggests that the market views CVNA as cheap compared to its peers, with a low expectations gap. However, the fragility of the current setup is noted, as weak execution quality could impact future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to meet its goals for increasing retail units sold and achieving record Adjusted EBITDA. However, there is mixed progress on expanding production capacity, which could pose challenges in the near term.

What Carvana hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on growth plans. Additionally, external factors such as inflation trends and performance of sector bellwethers will play a crucial role in shaping the future outlook.

Bottom line

In the next 1 to 3 years, CVNA's performance will depend on its execution and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.21

$2.11 → $2.21 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$36.47B

$34.76B → $36.47B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.11	$34,764,232,650	14 / 22
2026-07-25	$2.11	$34,784,591,740	14 / 22
2026-07-26	$2.11	$34,784,591,740	14 / 22
2026-07-27	$2.05	$35,025,754,998	11 / 17
2026-07-28	$2.11	$34,784,591,740	14 / 22
2026-07-29	$2.04	$34,995,967,725	11 / 17
2026-07-30	$2.10	$34,756,169,760	13 / 22
2026-07-31	$2.13	$35,572,557,190	13 / 22
2026-08-01	$2.17	$35,954,057,160	11 / 16
2026-08-02	$2.23	$35,888,149,350	14 / 22
2026-08-03	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-04	$2.23	$35,888,149,350	14 / 22
2026-08-05	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-06	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-07	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-08	$2.23	$35,888,149,350	14 / 22
2026-08-09	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-10	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-11	$2.24	$35,888,149,350	14 / 22
2026-08-12	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-13	$2.24	$35,888,149,350	14 / 22
2026-08-14	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-15	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-16	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-17	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-18	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-19	$2.20	$36,207,196,568	11 / 16
2026-08-20	$2.21	$36,252,651,330	11 / 16
2026-08-21	$2.21	$36,252,651,330	11 / 16
2026-08-22	$2.21	$36,265,770,377	11 / 16
2026-08-23	$2.21	$36,265,770,377	11 / 16
2026-08-24	$2.21	$36,265,770,377	11 / 16
2026-08-25	$2.21	$36,323,870,377	11 / 16
2026-08-26	$2.21	$36,323,870,377	11 / 16
2026-08-27	$2.21	$36,323,870,377	11 / 16
2026-08-28	$2.21	$36,323,870,377	11 / 16
2026-08-29	$2.21	$36,323,870,377	11 / 16
2026-08-30	$2.21	$36,323,870,377	11 / 16
2026-08-31	$2.21	$36,323,870,377	11 / 16
2026-09-01	$2.21	$36,323,870,377	11 / 16
2026-09-02	$2.21	$36,323,870,377	11 / 16
2026-09-03	$2.21	$36,323,870,377	11 / 16
2026-09-04	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-05	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-06	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-07	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-08	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-09	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-10	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-11	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-12	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-13	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-14	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-15	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-16	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-17	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-18	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-19	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-20	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-21	$2.21	$36,323,864,608	11 / 16
2026-09-22	$2.21	$36,323,859,846	11 / 16
2026-09-23	$2.21	$36,323,859,846	11 / 16
2026-09-24	$2.21	$36,323,859,846	11 / 16
2026-09-25	$2.21	$36,323,859,846	11 / 16
2026-09-26	$2.21	$36,323,859,846	11 / 16
2026-09-27	$2.21	$36,323,859,846	11 / 16
2026-09-28	$2.21	$36,323,859,846	11 / 16
2026-09-29	$2.21	$36,323,859,846	11 / 16
2026-09-30	$2.20	$36,334,507,489	11 / 16
2026-10-01	$2.20	$36,334,507,489	11 / 16
2026-10-02	$2.20	$36,334,507,489	12 / 16
2026-10-03	$2.20	$36,342,007,489	12 / 17
2026-10-04	$2.20	$36,342,028,853	12 / 17
2026-10-05	$2.20	$36,342,028,853	12 / 17
2026-10-06	$2.20	$36,342,028,853	12 / 17
2026-10-07	$2.20	$36,400,037,944	11 / 17
2026-10-08	$2.20	$36,419,554,623	11 / 17
2026-10-09	$2.20	$36,419,554,623	11 / 17
2026-10-10	$2.20	$36,429,968,669	11 / 17
2026-10-11	$2.20	$36,429,968,669	11 / 17
2026-10-12	$2.20	$36,429,968,669	11 / 17
2026-10-13	$2.20	$36,429,968,669	11 / 17
2026-10-14	$2.20	$36,429,968,669	11 / 17
2026-10-15	$2.21	$36,473,538,605	11 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings