Reading MNRO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MNRO free→
Monro, Inc. (MNRO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this month
$16.25+1.88%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with MNRO compared to sector peers being below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on sector trends, particularly if bellwethers like ORLY, AZO, and BWA continue to perform well. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Auto Parts
- Market cap
- $478.90M
- Employees
- 6,440
- IPO date
- 1996-06-28
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $16.25. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$13.36consensus
Range $9.98 – $25.08
vs price: +22% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$25.11consensus
Range $12.47 – $30.05
vs price: -35% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $16 the market pays 38× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 31× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $13 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
37.8x
peer 15.4x · own history 31.0x
Premium
2.5x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
22%
our forecast -3%
Our fair value
$13.33
range $9.85 – $25.15
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premium
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 22% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
39th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 32.46x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
99th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -67.6% / 30d, n=5for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.22 → $0.07 (-67.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 5 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.6% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$199.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$483.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,958.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 18d
Watch for the cash dividend payment on June 16, 2026
Why it matters: Keeping the cash dividend shows financial strength and care for shareholders.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The cash dividend is paid as scheduled on June 16, 2026.
Disproves:The dividend is delayed or stopped.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MNRO yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ORLY, AZO, and BWA keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting MNRO and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for MNRO and other Consumer Discretionary names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ORLY, AZO, and BWA start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping MNRO and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits MNRO and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
- If MNRO misses again next quarter like this past one (a very large miss off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2721d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 27, 2026, Monro, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended March 28, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (t…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.