Murphy USA (MUSA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-30
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-30
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Put MUSA beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Cash from operating activities improves to support growth: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 1% on a typical day and fell roughly 20% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskMUSA’s case rests on strong earnings and organic growth through new stores. Revenue growth accelerated from 6.5% in Q1 to 36.0% in Q2, and Q3 earnings beat consensus. MUSA trades at 15× P/E versus a 15× peer median, and the price reflects less growth than we forecast. The risk is elevated overall, though the next-quarter miss probability is 21.0%. The operating-cash-flow comparison needs review, so this is not a confirmed pillar failure. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. MUSA is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 11 analysts currently covering MUSA (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUSA Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Automotive Retail — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put MUSA next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Prioritize organic growth through new stores
Pipeline supports the 50-store annual growth target; MARS expansion adds scale to the organic growth plan.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.

Advances: Enhance cash from operating activities
Strong earnings enhance cash from operating activities.

Advances: Enhance cash from operating activities
High fuel margins enhance cash from operating activities.

Advances: Increase dividend per share
Dividend hike supports capital allocation objective.

Advances: Enhance cash from operating activities
Resilient fuel margins enhance cash from operations.

Advances: Enhance cash from operating activities
Higher fuel margins enhance cash from operating activities.

Advances: Enhance cash from operating activities
Improving fuel margins enhance cash from operating activities.
New CIO could enhance operational efficiency and growth.