Reading MUSA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MUSA free→Reading MUSA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MUSA free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality and management's track record are neutral, while the company's earnings yield is about typical for the sector. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and trends among sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $586.36. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $586 the market pays 20× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 16× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $460 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $450–$680. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 27% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.82x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the broad stock market.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $9.58 → $9.51 (-0.7% / 30d). 7 raised, 0 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 9.3% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$152.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$392.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,972.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
As of June 15, 2026, the signal label changed to indicate a mild favorable outlook. Risk fell, moving from an elevated level. The sector backdrop remained a headwind, and recent financial performance was strong. The overall assessment of earnings quality and management remained neutral.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Closing this offering is key for Murphy USA to manage its debt and finance growth.
Confirms:The notes offering closes on or before May 27, 2026.
Disproves:The offering fails to close by the expected date.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MUSA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and Item 9.01, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to liabilities of that Section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$450.00 – $680.00 (median $558.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MUSA Murphy USA | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | full | elevated |
ORLY O’Reilly Automotive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AZO AutoZone | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
PAG Penske Automotive Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Murphy USA aims to open between 45 and 55 new stores in 2026 to drive growth.
Murphy USA focuses on enhancing cash from operating activities to support financial stability.
Murphy USA plans to increase the dividend per share to enhance shareholder returns.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a change in the consumer discretionary sector's growth phase.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported below the sector median.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median.
Why it matters: Opening 45 new stores would show management's plan for growth. This would help revenue.
Confirms:Management plans to open 45 or more new stores by December 2026.
Disproves:Fewer than 45 new stores are opened by year-end.
Why it matters: Higher fuel margins mean strong pricing power. They also show better efficiency in operations.
Confirms:Q2 fuel contribution margins exceed 35 cpg.
Disproves:Q2 fuel contribution margins fall below 30 cpg.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend shows the company is focused on returning value to shareholders. It can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:A public announcement of a dividend per share increase beyond $0.63.
Disproves:No increase in the dividend per share or a decrease from the current $0.63.
Why it matters: Falling same-store sales could show weaker consumer demand. This may hurt future earnings.
Confirms:Same-store sales growth for Q2 2026 declines below -0.8%.
Disproves:Same-store sales growth for Q2 2026 remains positive or flat.
Why it matters: Growth in cash from operations shows strong finances. It also means more money for growth.
Confirms:Cash from operations will be over $320 million next quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations drops below $320 million.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Murphy USA is managing costs and growing sales.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) exceeds $1.50, indicating strong performance.
Confirms the other:EPS is below $1.00. This shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: Opening new stores is crucial for Murphy USA's growth strategy.
Confirms:Murphy USA opens at least 45 new stores by the end of 2026.
Disproves:Fewer than 30 new stores are opened by year-end.
Why it matters: A higher dividend can attract investors. It also shows financial health.
Confirms:The stock price goes up by over 5% after the dividend announcement.
Disproves:Stock price drops or remains flat after the dividend increase.
Regulation FD Disclosure On May 7, 2026, Murphy USA Inc. issued a news release announcing a dividend declaration which included a rate increase from the previous quarter. The full text of this news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On April 3, 2026, the Board of Directors of Murphy USA Inc. (“Murphy USA” or the “Company”) appointed Donald R. Smith, Jr., the Company’s current Interim Chief Financial Officer and Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer & Treasurer, as Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of the Company, effective April 3, 2026. Mr. Smith,…
and Item 9.01, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to liabilities of that Section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Regulation FD Disclosure On February 12, 2026, Murphy USA Inc. issued a news release announcing a dividend declaration. The full text of this news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.