Murphy USA (MUSA)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-23

$534.63+0.48%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Murphy USA’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

30.92 → 30.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	5.8B
EPS	—	7.857
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	23.63B
EPS	—	34.822
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	22.06B
EPS	—	30.678

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend per share increases to at least $0.63	Dividend per share increased from $0.53 to $0.63, showing strong shareholder returns.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.63	Dividend per share: $0.64 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.63 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.64 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d3fb6754-c72e-44d1-83f1-a22dfd1ea888. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q3. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.72 per share, an 11% increase from its Q3 2026 dividend. The declared increase is direct evidence of delivery on this capital-allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Cash from operating activities improves to support growth	Cash from operating activities rose from $185M to $320M in recent quarters.	Broken	Quarterly cash from operations falls below $320M	Cash from operations: $235M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $320M quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026235,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at or above 7% annually	A primary condition in Murphy USA's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 35.99% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202635.986014 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d3fb6754-c72e-44d1-83f1-a22dfd1ea888. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 supplied quarters. Management reported 12 new-to-industry stores opened year-to-date and 36 stores under construction at the end of 2026-Q2, against a 2026 target of 45 to 55 openings. Those operating milestones indicate progress, while the full-year opening commitment remains in progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Open 45 to 55 new stores in 2026	Murphy USA plans to open 45 to 55 new stores in 2026.	Intact	New store openings fall below 45 in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 supplied quarters. Management reported 12 new-to-industry stores opened year-to-date and 36 stores under construction at the end of 2026-Q2, against a 2026 target of 45 to 55 openings. Those operating milestones indicate progress, while the full-year opening commitment remains in progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$30.68

$29.68 → $30.68 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$22.06B

$21.50B → $22.06B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$29.68	$21,503,605,761	7 / 9
2026-07-25	$29.68	$21,503,605,761	7 / 9
2026-07-26	$29.76	$21,502,048,200	9 / 11
2026-07-27	$29.76	$21,502,048,200	9 / 11
2026-07-28	$29.76	$21,502,048,200	9 / 11
2026-07-29	$29.76	$21,502,048,200	9 / 11
2026-07-30	$29.76	$21,502,048,200	9 / 11
2026-07-31	$29.89	$21,336,875,470	9 / 11
2026-08-01	$30.05	$21,336,967,979	7 / 9
2026-08-02	$30.18	$21,283,439,110	9 / 11
2026-08-03	$30.18	$21,283,439,110	9 / 11
2026-08-04	$30.18	$21,283,439,110	9 / 11
2026-08-05	$30.18	$21,283,439,110	9 / 11
2026-08-06	$30.31	$21,283,531,615	7 / 9
2026-08-07	$30.28	$21,332,204,342	7 / 9
2026-08-08	$30.28	$21,332,204,342	7 / 9
2026-08-09	$29.70	$21,144,582,000	8 / 11
2026-08-10	$30.28	$21,332,204,342	7 / 9
2026-08-12	$30.28	$21,332,204,342	7 / 9
2026-08-13	$30.28	$21,332,204,342	7 / 9
2026-08-14	$30.28	$21,332,204,342	7 / 9
2026-08-15	$30.28	$21,332,204,342	7 / 9
2026-08-16	$30.28	$21,332,204,342	6 / 8
2026-08-17	$30.28	$21,332,204,342	6 / 8
2026-08-18	$30.28	$21,332,204,342	6 / 9
2026-08-19	$30.28	$21,332,204,342	6 / 9
2026-08-20	$30.91	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-08-21	$30.91	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-08-22	$30.91	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-08-23	$30.91	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-08-24	$30.91	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-08-25	$30.91	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-08-26	$30.91	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-08-27	$30.91	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-08-28	$30.91	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-08-29	$30.91	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-08-30	$30.91	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-08-31	$30.91	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-01	$30.92	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-02	$30.92	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-03	$30.92	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-04	$30.92	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-05	$30.92	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-06	$30.92	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-07	$30.92	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-08	$30.92	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-09	$30.92	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-10	$30.92	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-11	$30.92	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-12	$30.92	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-13	$30.92	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-14	$30.92	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-15	$30.92	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-16	$30.92	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-17	$30.92	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-18	$30.92	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-19	$30.92	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-20	$30.92	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-21	$30.92	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-22	$30.92	$21,736,600,182	7 / 9
2026-09-23	$30.92	$21,751,327,455	7 / 9
2026-09-24	$30.92	$21,751,327,455	7 / 9
2026-09-25	$30.92	$21,751,327,455	7 / 9
2026-09-26	$30.92	$21,751,327,455	7 / 9
2026-09-27	$30.92	$21,751,327,455	7 / 9
2026-09-28	$30.92	$21,751,327,455	7 / 9
2026-09-29	$30.92	$21,751,327,455	7 / 9
2026-09-30	$30.92	$21,751,327,455	7 / 9
2026-10-01	$30.92	$21,751,327,455	7 / 9
2026-10-02	$30.92	$21,751,327,455	7 / 9
2026-10-03	$30.92	$21,751,327,455	7 / 9
2026-10-04	$30.92	$21,751,327,455	7 / 9
2026-10-05	$30.92	$21,751,327,455	7 / 9
2026-10-06	$30.92	$21,751,327,455	7 / 9
2026-10-07	$30.92	$21,751,327,455	7 / 9
2026-10-08	$30.92	$21,751,327,455	7 / 9
2026-10-09	$30.92	$21,751,327,455	7 / 9
2026-10-10	$30.94	$21,841,746,996	7 / 9
2026-10-11	$30.94	$21,841,746,996	7 / 9
2026-10-12	$30.94	$21,841,746,996	7 / 9
2026-10-13	$30.94	$21,841,746,996	7 / 9
2026-10-14	$30.94	$21,841,746,996	7 / 9
2026-10-15	$30.94	$21,841,746,996	7 / 9
2026-10-16	$30.91	$21,837,837,905	7 / 9
2026-10-17	$30.91	$21,837,837,905	7 / 9
2026-10-18	$30.73	$21,852,019,723	6 / 9
2026-10-19	$30.73	$21,852,019,723	6 / 9
2026-10-20	$30.73	$21,852,019,723	6 / 9
2026-10-21	$30.73	$21,852,019,723	6 / 9
2026-10-22	$30.73	$21,852,019,723	6 / 8
2026-10-23	$30.68	$22,060,928,814	6 / 8
2026-10-24	$30.68	$22,060,928,814	6 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	5	1
2026-06-01	5	5	1
2026-07-01	6	5	1
2026-08-01	6	5	0
2026-09-01	6	5	0
2026-10-01	6	5	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend per share increases to at least $0.63Dividend per share: $0.64 per share
Cash from operating activities improves to support growthPublished status: Broken
Revenue grows at or above 7% annuallyRevenue growth: 35.99%
Open 45 to 55 new stores in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Murphy USA outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MUSA is a growth-oriented retailer with a long-term thesis tied to store expansion and merchandise contribution. Recent performance remains strong, though volatile management and elevated risk make execution important; confidence in the thesis is medium.

What's priced into Murphy USA

Valuation is close to peers, and expectations appear broadly aligned with the fundamentals rather than notably stretched or unusually low. The evidence shows low valuation fragility, but provides limited detail on the exact assumptions investors hold.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the company has made progress toward opening 45 to 55 stores in 2026, with 12 opened year-to-date and 36 under construction at the end of Q2. Merchandise contribution grew year over year in Q1 and Q2, although management expected the full-year result toward the low end of its guidance range. A guidance cut is a key near-term risk, while recent results and the dividend increase support the current business picture.

What Murphy USA hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on completing the store-opening plan and sustaining merchandise contribution growth. In the near term, a guidance cut would weaken the thesis, while continued strength from consumer discretionary bellwethers could support the sector backdrop. Misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.