Reading GPI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GPI free→Reading GPI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GPI free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto & Truck DealershipsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality is neutral and management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 28% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on sector trends, particularly the performance of bellwethers like CVNA, PAG, and KMX. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $325.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $326 GPI trades at 11× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $457 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 29% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.92x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $10.78 → $11.13 (+3.2% / 30d). 6 raised, 3 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 2.5% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$116.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$316.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,890.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company cares about giving cash to shareholders. Missing a payment may mean financial issues.
Confirms:The company pays the declared dividend of $0.55 per share on June 15, 2026.
Disproves:The company cancels or delays the dividend payment.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GPI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On May 12, 2026, the Company announced that its Board of Directors approved a cash dividend of $0.55 per share, payable on June 15, 2026, to stockholders of record as of June 1, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GPI Group 1 Automotive, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
ORLY O’Reilly Automotive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AZO AutoZone | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
PAG Penske Automotive Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | full | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.55 per share as part of capital allocation strategy.
Raise the annual dividend rate from $2.00 to $2.20 per share to enhance shareholder returns.
Implement cost reduction measures including staffing and discretionary expense cuts in response to macroeconomic challenges.
Why it matters: Updates on cost cuts will show how the company is handling expenses. This affects profits.
Confirms:Management says they have cut costs successfully. This helps improve profit margins.
Disproves:Management reports more job cuts or expense cuts without clear benefits.
Why it matters: An increase would show confidence in cash flow and commitment to shareholders.
Confirms:A press release confirming the annual dividend rate is raised to $2.20 per share.
Disproves:No announcement of a dividend increase by the next earnings date.
Why it matters: Good performance in UK operations can help with problems in the US market and support growth.
Confirms:UK operations report record gross profits and revenue growth in Q2 2026.
Disproves:UK operations report declining gross profits and revenue in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Consumer spending data affects GPI's sales. A drop could signal trouble for the company.
Confirms:Retail sales data shows growth above 3% year over year.
Disproves:Retail sales data shows a decline below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how the company is doing during tough times. This can change stock views.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share is over $10.82. This shows strong performance.
Confirms the other:Earnings per share falls below $8.66, suggesting weaker results.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Group 1 Automotive, Inc., a Delaware corporation, issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. As provided in General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 2.02 (including the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference in this
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 2, 2026, Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (the “ Company ”) and Mr. Daryl Kenningham entered into a second amendment (the “ Second Amendment ”) to his Incentive Compensation, Confidentiality, Non-Disclosure and Non-Compete Agreement (as amended, the “ Incentive Agreement ”), which restructures the severance benefits payable upon certain qualifying…
Other Events. On February 11, 2026, Group 1 Automotive, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), announced that its Board of Directors approved the 2026 annual dividend rate of $2.20 per share and a cash dividend of $0.55 per share, payable on March 16, 2026, to stockholders of record as of March 2, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026, Group 1 Automotive, Inc., a Delaware corporation, issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. As provided in General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 2.02 (including the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by refere…