Group 1 Automotive, Inc. (GPI)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$244.97+0.90%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Group 1 Automotive, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-8.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

43.99 → 40.31 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	5.64B
EPS	—	9.285
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	22.05B
EPS	—	37.102
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	23.07B
EPS	—	40.305

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.55 per share	It raised its annual dividend to $2.20 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.55 per quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS at or above $42.27 in FY26	It raised its annual dividend to $2.20 per share.	Broken	EPS falls below $42.27 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of at least 3% annually	A primary condition in Group 1 Automotive, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3% YoY.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain valuation discount to peer median PE	A supporting condition in Group 1 Automotive, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE ratio below 12.	Intact	PE ratio rises above 12	P/E (TTM): 6.58x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 20266.5834 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: GPI:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$40.31

$46.21 → $40.31 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$23.07B

$23.35B → $23.07B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$46.21	$23,347,457,083	7 / 9
2026-07-25	$46.21	$23,347,457,083	7 / 9
2026-07-26	$46.29	$23,441,076,540	12 / 11
2026-07-27	$46.29	$23,441,076,540	12 / 11
2026-07-28	$46.21	$23,347,457,083	7 / 9
2026-07-29	$46.29	$23,441,076,540	12 / 11
2026-07-30	$46.29	$23,441,076,540	12 / 11
2026-07-31	$46.29	$23,441,076,540	12 / 11
2026-08-01	$46.08	$23,427,716,771	7 / 9
2026-08-02	$45.58	$23,655,700,580	12 / 11
2026-08-03	$45.39	$23,505,510,704	7 / 9
2026-08-04	$45.58	$23,655,700,580	12 / 11
2026-08-05	$45.39	$23,505,510,704	7 / 9
2026-08-06	$45.49	$23,735,243,490	12 / 11
2026-08-07	$45.39	$23,505,510,704	7 / 9
2026-08-08	$44.28	$23,661,682,660	12 / 10
2026-08-09	$44.28	$23,661,682,660	12 / 10
2026-08-10	$44.28	$23,661,682,660	12 / 10
2026-08-12	$44.28	$23,661,682,660	12 / 10
2026-08-13	$45.39	$23,505,510,704	7 / 9
2026-08-14	$45.39	$23,505,510,704	7 / 9
2026-08-15	$45.39	$23,505,510,704	7 / 8
2026-08-16	$45.39	$23,505,510,704	7 / 8
2026-08-17	$45.39	$23,505,510,704	7 / 8
2026-08-18	$45.39	$23,505,510,704	7 / 8
2026-08-19	$45.39	$23,505,510,704	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-08-21	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-08-22	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-08-23	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-08-24	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-08-25	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-08-26	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-08-27	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-08-28	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-08-29	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-08-30	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-08-31	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-01	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-02	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-03	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-04	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-05	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-06	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-07	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-08	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-09	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-10	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-11	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-12	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-13	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-14	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-15	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-16	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-17	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-18	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-19	$43.94	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-20	$43.99	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$43.99	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$43.99	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$43.99	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$43.99	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$43.99	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$43.99	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$43.99	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$43.99	$23,522,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$43.87	$23,495,484,137	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$43.87	$23,495,484,137	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$43.87	$23,495,484,137	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$43.87	$23,495,484,137	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$43.87	$23,495,484,137	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$43.87	$23,495,484,137	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$43.87	$23,495,484,137	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$42.86	$23,451,645,826	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$42.27	$23,449,536,655	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$41.74	$23,412,542,081	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$41.74	$23,412,542,081	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$41.74	$23,412,542,081	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$41.22	$23,399,722,081	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$41.22	$23,399,722,081	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$41.14	$23,353,322,081	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$41.14	$23,353,322,081	7 / 9
2026-10-15	$41.14	$23,353,322,081	7 / 9
2026-10-16	$40.43	$23,100,830,903	7 / 9
2026-10-17	$40.43	$23,100,830,903	7 / 9
2026-10-18	$40.31	$23,068,860,903	7 / 9
2026-10-19	$40.31	$23,068,860,903	7 / 9
2026-10-20	$40.31	$23,068,860,903	7 / 9
2026-10-21	$40.31	$23,068,860,903	7 / 9
2026-10-22	$40.31	$23,068,860,903	7 / 9
2026-10-23	$40.31	$23,068,860,903	7 / 9
2026-10-24	$40.31	$23,068,860,903	7 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	2	0
2026-06-01	10	2	0
2026-07-01	10	3	0
2026-08-01	10	4	0
2026-09-01	9	4	0
2026-10-01	8	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 7 · prior Jul 10

$330.00 → $271.00-17.9%

KeyBancOct 7

$425.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 6 · prior Aug 19

$365.00 → $320.00-12.3%

Morgan StanleyOct 5

$232.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$233.75$467.50

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.55 per shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
EPS at or above $42.27 in FY26Published status: Broken
Revenue growth of at least 3% annuallyPublished status: Broken
Maintain valuation discount to peer median PEP/E (TTM): 6.58x

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-47.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Group 1 Automotive, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

GPI is a value-oriented, operational-efficiency and acquisition story, rather than a clearly durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact because recent financial performance remains in the top half of its industry, though execution and risk indicators call for caution.

What's priced into Group 1 Automotive, Inc.

GPI is described as cheap versus peers, but the evidence does not show that the market has priced in the full combination of weak execution and turbulence. The expectations gap is negative, which suggests expectations may still be demanding despite the low relative valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, continued earnings misses and a 45% estimated chance of a miss make the next report an important risk. Cost actions are progressing, while acquisitions are active, but consolidated revenue has softened and acquisition integration has not yet translated into clear overall growth.

What Group 1 Automotive, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on avoiding a guidance cut and turning cost discipline and acquisitions into steadier results. Sector signals also matter: continued strength from CVNA, PAG, and KMX could support the backdrop, while weaker results or guidance from those companies could remove that support.