Reading VVV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VVV free→Reading VVV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VVV free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto & Truck DealershipsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is low. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance compared to sector peers, where VVV is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 49% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $37.76. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $38 VVV trades at 23× p/e — 1.5× the 15× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $25 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $35–$47. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 51% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.95x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Not enough signal yet.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.50 → $0.50 (-0.3% / 30d). 4 raised, 4 cut, 14 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 73% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 1.2% above current price.
via XLY
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$151.
How much price usually moves either way.
Not enough price history for this read.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,054.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If it drops below 5%, it shows less demand for Valvoline's services. This may hurt future revenue growth.
Confirms:Same-store sales growth is below 5% in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Same-store sales growth is above 5%. This shows strong demand.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for VVV yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026, Valvoline Inc. (“Valvoline”) issued a press release ("Earnings Release") announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of Valvoline's Earnings Release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K (“Form 8-K”) as Exhibit 99.1, which is incorporated by reference into this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$35.00 – $47.00 (median $45.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-28
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VVV Valvoline | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | low |
ORLY O’Reilly Automotive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AZO AutoZone | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
PAG Penske Automotive Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on maximizing the potential of Valvoline's core business operations.
Continue to grow the store network through new openings and acquisitions.
Enhance profitability by improving selling, general, and administrative expense leverage.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below 5%, it may signal a slowdown in demand. This could hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Adding more than 330 stores would show strong expansion and execution of growth plans. This could boost future revenue.
Confirms:Net store additions reported above 330 in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Store additions are below 330. This means slower growth.
Why it matters: Opening more stores than expected shows Valvoline is doing well with its expansion.
Confirms:Net store additions in Q2 exceed 29.
Disproves:Net store additions in Q2 are 29 or fewer.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Effective March 6, 2026, the Board of Directors of Valvoline Inc. (the “Company” or “Valvoline”) appointed Jordan M. Denny, age 36, as Chief Accounting Officer and Controller of Valvoline. Mr. Denny succeeds Dione R. Sturgeon, who assumed the role of Vice President, Treasurer and Tax of Valvoline. Mr. Denny most recently served as Vice President, Co…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 4, 2026, Valvoline Inc. (“Valvoline”) issued a press release ("Earnings Release") announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of Valvoline's Earnings Release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K (“Form 8-K”) as Exhibit 99.1, which is incorporated by reference into this
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 28, 2026, Valvoline Inc. (“ Valvoline ” or the “ Company ”) held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (“ 2026 Annual Meeting ”). At the 2026 Annual Meeting, the Company’s shareholders approved the Valvoline Inc. 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan (the “ 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan ”). The 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan replaces the 2016 Valvoli…