Valvoline (VVV)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$31.63-2.50%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Valvoline’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	—	540.4M
EPS	—	0.35
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$2.05B–$2.1B	—
EPS	$1.7–$1.75non-GAAP	—
Capital expenditure	$240M–$260M	—
EBITDA	$550M–$560Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.32B
EPS	—	1.963
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.56B
EPS	—	2.429

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Operating income rises to $86 million in Q2 FY2026	Profit rises with better cost control.	Intact	Operating income falls below $67 million in Q2 FY2026	Operating income: $112.2M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $86M. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 2026112,200,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 647b64b9-6c83-4e40-a57d-df37918fc6fa. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $2.05 billion in Q3 FY2026	Valvoline grows revenue about 20% a year.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.7 billion in Q3 FY2026	Revenue: $544.6M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.05B. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 5, 2026544,600,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 647b64b9-6c83-4e40-a57d-df37918fc6fa. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $462 million in 2026-Q1 to $545 million in 2026-Q3, with operating income increasing from $18.3 million to $112.2 million. Management's focus on driving the core business is reflected in strong top-line and profit growth, indicating delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
System-wide store count reaches about 2,409 by Q2 FY2026	A supporting condition in Valvoline's published investment case. The stated target is 2409 stores.	Intact	Store count growth stalls or declines below 2,100 stores next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. System-wide store count increased from 2,380 in 2026-Q1 to 2,456 in 2026-Q3, with net additions each quarter (200 in Q1, 29 in Q2, 47 in Q3). Management is delivering on sustainable network growth through steady store expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue$2.56B

$2.55B → $2.56B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$2,545,905,247	2 / 7
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$2,545,905,247	2 / 7
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$2,544,546,546	2 / 7
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$2,544,546,546	2 / 7
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$2,544,546,546	2 / 7
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$2,544,546,546	2 / 7
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$2,544,546,546	2 / 7
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$2,544,546,546	2 / 7
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$2,544,546,546	2 / 7
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$2,544,546,546	2 / 7
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$2,544,546,546	2 / 7
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$2,544,546,546	2 / 7
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$2,544,546,546	2 / 7
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$2,544,546,546	2 / 7
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$2,549,196,546	2 / 7
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$2,549,196,546	2 / 7
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$2,549,196,546	2 / 7
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$2,549,196,546	2 / 7
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$2,549,196,546	2 / 7
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$2,549,196,546	2 / 7
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$2,549,196,546	2 / 7
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$2,549,196,546	2 / 7
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$2,552,474,707	3 / 8
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$2,556,150,222	3 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	4	1
2026-06-01	11	4	0
2026-07-01	11	4	0
2026-08-01	12	4	0
2026-09-01	12	4	0
2026-10-01	12	4	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 23 · prior Jul 21

$45.00 → $40.00-11.1%

UBSOct 14

$40.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 6 · prior Jul 21

$41.00 → $39.00-4.9%

New StreetOct 1 · prior Jul 20

$47.00 → $34.00-27.7%

$0$25.85$51.70

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating income rises to $86 million in Q2 FY2026Operating income: $112.2M
Revenue grows to about $2.05 billion in Q3 FY2026Revenue: $544.6M
System-wide store count reaches about 2,409 by Q2 FY2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 18, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-33.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Valvoline outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

VVV is an execution-led growth story, with recent results showing strong revenue and operating-income growth alongside steady store expansion. The long-term thesis is intact, but management execution has been volatile and confidence in the evidence is medium.

What's priced into Valvoline

VVV is valued at a premium to peers, and the valuation assessment is expensive. Expectations appear broadly aligned with the evidence, though the gap is slightly negative, so the market is not giving the business much room for weaker execution.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results and progress on core operations, store growth, and cost leverage point to continued fundamental strength. The main risk is a reversal of recently raised guidance, which could damage management credibility; the recent history of a deep miss and peer misses also warrant attention.

What Valvoline hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining growth and delivering on its stated priorities without cutting guidance. Consumer Discretionary peers CVNA, PAG, and KMX are useful signals: continued strong results may support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.

Bottom line

For the 1-3 year view, VVV combines improving business momentum with an expensive valuation and meaningful execution sensitivity. The thesis remains intact, but hinges on sustained delivery and guidance credibility. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.