Reading PAG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PAG free→Reading PAG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PAG free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto & Truck DealershipsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. If PAG cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $180.09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $180 PAG trades at 14× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $171 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $160–$190. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 6% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.99x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.39 → $3.48 (+2.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 64% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 0.2% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$104.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$249.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,403.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Successful acquisitions can increase revenue and market presence. This helps growth goals.
Confirms:The purchase of Lexus of Orlando and Lexus of Winter Park adds $450 million in revenue.
Disproves:The acquisition does not close or faces big delays. This affects expected revenue growth.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PAG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Items. On May 13, 2026, we issued a press release announcing that our Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend in the amount of $1.42 per share, payable on June 3, 2026 to shareholders of record as of May 26, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$160.00 – $190.00 (median $167.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PAG Penske Automotive Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | full | moderate |
ORLY O’Reilly Automotive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AZO AutoZone | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
MUSA Murphy USA | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | full | elevated |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to increase the quarterly dividend, reflecting a balanced capital allocation approach.
Continue acquisitions to expand dealership network, adding significant annualized revenue.
Focus on increasing same-store service and parts revenue and related gross profit.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how revenue is changing and how the business is doing.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share is over $3.56, showing strong financial performance.
Confirms the other:Earnings per share falls below $3.56, suggesting weaker performance compared to last year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it could signal a slowdown in consumer spending. This is important for Penske's outlook.
Confirms:Penske's revenue growth reported below the sector median of 5% year over year.
Disproves:Penske's revenue growth remains above the sector median of 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in service and parts revenue shows strong customer demand and good operations.
Confirms:Same-store revenue from automotive service and parts is up over 4.6% from last year.
Disproves:Same-store retail automotive service and parts revenue growth drops below 4.6% from last year.
Why it matters: Inflation trends can affect how much people spend and the company's sales.
Confirms one read:CPI shows that inflation rates are going down or staying the same.
Confirms the other:CPI shows an increase in inflation rates.
Why it matters: The dividend shows that management trusts the cash flow. A steady dividend can attract investors.
Confirms:Management might announce a new dividend increase. They could also keep the current dividend after June 3.
Disproves:Management cuts the dividend or suspends it after June 3.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend payout is a key priority for the company. A change could signal financial health.
Confirms:The Board declares a quarterly dividend equal to or greater than $1.42 per share.
Disproves:The Board reduces the dividend payout below $1.42 per share.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, we issued a press release announcing our first quarter 2026 financial results and other information. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 11, 2026, we issued a press release announcing our fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results and other information. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1.
Other Events. On February 11, 2026, we announced that our Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend in the amount of $1.40 per share, payable on March 5, 2026, to shareholders of record as of February 25, 2026.
Other Items. On October 15, 2025, we issued a press release announcing that our Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend in the amount of $1.38 per share, payable on December 2, 2025 to shareholders of record as of November 14, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.