Penske Automotive Group (PAG)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$212.33+0.10%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Penske Automotive Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-3.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

14.50 → 14.01 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	8.16B
EPS	—	3.286
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	32.68B
EPS	—	13.314
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	33.5B
EPS	—	14.006

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Quarterly dividend per share	It keeps raising its dividend, now $1.42 per share quarterly.	Intact	dividend cut or fails to increase next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Profit margin stability amid pressures	A primary condition in Penske Automotive Group's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain profit margins near current levels.	Intact	profit margins decline more than 5% from current levels	Operating margin: 3.97% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain profit margins near current levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Source published Jul 30, 20263.965839 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c7daba57-d986-4df4-8702-126751bb1f54. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Same-store service and parts revenue growth	Penske Automotive grows service and parts revenue about 5% a year.	Intact	growth falls below 3% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$14.01

$14.08 → $14.01 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$33.50B

$33.28B → $33.50B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$14.08	$33,283,242,580	5 / 10
2026-07-25	$14.08	$33,282,005,340	5 / 10
2026-07-26	$14.08	$33,282,005,340	5 / 10
2026-07-27	$14.08	$33,282,005,340	5 / 10
2026-07-28	$14.08	$33,282,005,340	5 / 10
2026-07-29	$14.08	$33,282,005,340	5 / 10
2026-07-30	$14.08	$33,282,005,340	5 / 10
2026-07-31	$14.48	$33,291,227,651	5 / 8
2026-08-01	$14.48	$33,291,227,651	5 / 8
2026-08-02	$14.13	$33,590,743,649	5 / 10
2026-08-03	$14.47	$33,528,726,164	5 / 8
2026-08-04	$14.47	$33,528,726,164	5 / 8
2026-08-05	$14.13	$33,590,743,649	5 / 10
2026-08-06	$14.13	$33,590,743,649	5 / 10
2026-08-07	$14.45	$33,612,158,761	5 / 8
2026-08-08	$14.13	$33,720,522,660	5 / 10
2026-08-09	$14.13	$33,720,522,660	5 / 10
2026-08-10	$14.45	$33,612,158,761	5 / 8
2026-08-12	$14.45	$33,612,158,761	5 / 8
2026-08-13	$14.13	$33,720,522,660	5 / 10
2026-08-14	$14.45	$33,612,158,761	5 / 8
2026-08-15	$14.45	$33,612,158,761	5 / 8
2026-08-16	$14.45	$33,612,158,761	5 / 8
2026-08-17	$14.45	$33,612,158,761	5 / 8
2026-08-18	$14.45	$33,612,158,761	5 / 8
2026-08-19	$14.45	$33,612,158,761	5 / 8
2026-08-20	$14.53	$33,796,913,949	5 / 8
2026-08-21	$14.53	$33,796,913,949	5 / 8
2026-08-22	$14.53	$33,796,913,949	5 / 8
2026-08-23	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 8
2026-08-24	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 8
2026-08-25	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 8
2026-08-26	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 8
2026-08-27	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 8
2026-08-28	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 8
2026-08-29	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 8
2026-08-30	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 8
2026-08-31	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 8
2026-09-01	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 8
2026-09-02	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 8
2026-09-03	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 8
2026-09-04	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-05	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-06	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-07	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-08	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-09	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-10	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-11	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-12	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-13	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-14	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-15	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-16	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-17	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-18	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-19	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-20	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-21	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-22	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-23	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-24	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-25	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-26	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-27	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-28	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-29	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-09-30	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-10-01	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-10-02	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-10-03	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-10-04	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-10-05	$14.50	$33,499,287,029	5 / 7
2026-10-06	$14.30	$33,501,366,916	5 / 7
2026-10-07	$14.16	$33,492,033,843	5 / 7
2026-10-08	$14.05	$33,546,076,234	5 / 7
2026-10-09	$14.05	$33,546,076,234	5 / 7
2026-10-10	$14.05	$33,546,076,234	5 / 7
2026-10-11	$14.05	$33,546,076,234	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$14.05	$33,546,076,234	5 / 7
2026-10-13	$14.05	$33,546,076,234	5 / 7
2026-10-14	$14.05	$33,546,076,234	5 / 7
2026-10-15	$14.05	$33,546,076,234	5 / 7
2026-10-16	$14.01	$33,495,453,388	5 / 7
2026-10-17	$14.01	$33,495,453,388	5 / 7
2026-10-18	$14.01	$33,495,453,388	5 / 7
2026-10-19	$14.01	$33,495,453,388	5 / 7
2026-10-20	$14.01	$33,495,453,388	5 / 7
2026-10-21	$14.01	$33,495,453,388	5 / 7
2026-10-22	$14.01	$33,495,453,388	5 / 7
2026-10-23	$14.01	$33,495,453,388	5 / 7
2026-10-24	$14.01	$33,495,453,388	5 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	4
2026-06-01	7	5
2026-07-01	6	8
2026-08-01	2	8
2026-09-01	2	8
2026-10-01	2	8

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 16 · prior Jul 10

$190.00 → $212.00+11.6%

BarclaysOct 6 · prior Aug 19

$225.00 → $210.00-6.7%

$0$123.75$247.50

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Quarterly dividend per shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Profit margin stability amid pressuresOperating margin: 3.97%
Same-store service and parts revenue growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Penske Automotive Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PAG is a dealership business with a measured growth profile, supported by acquisitions, service and parts, and rising dividends. Its multi-year view is intact and recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though execution quality remains a concern.

What's priced into Penske Automotive Group

Valuation is tagged as stretched, and PAG trades at a modest premium to peers. The expectations gap is somewhat positive, while the valuation model has medium confidence; the evidence does not point to an especially fragile setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the latest evidence is mixed: revenue rose from $7.7 billion in 2025-Q4 to $8.5 billion in 2026-Q2, and service and parts growth continued but moderated. Management is delivering on dividend increases and dealership acquisitions. The next guidance update matters because PAG has missed in recent quarters, although the stated near-term miss risk is low.

What Penske Automotive Group hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued execution in acquisitions and service and parts, alongside the recurring dividend increases. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the setup, while results and guidance from sector bellwethers such as CVNA, KMX, and LAD could support or weaken the sector backdrop.