CarMax, Inc. (KMX)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-10-29
$56.17+4.04%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put KMX beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve $200 million SG&A expense reductions by FY27: Direct metric needs a verified mapping.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 5% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 2% a day.
View RiskCarMax’s bet rests on stronger unit sales, Auto Finance growth, and cost savings despite weak recent performance. Revenue growth accelerated to 19.5% in Q2 FY2027 from 6.2% in Q1, with the latest quarter beating. KMX trades at 17× P/E versus a 15× peer median, while expectations look modest versus our view. The specific risk is weak cash backing for reported profits. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 22%. The $200 million FY27 savings pillar remains unverified, and the thesis is on watch. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% above where it trades; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. KMX is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 22 analysts currently covering KMX (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 7 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for KMX in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare KMX with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Compare now without an account. Saving and monitoring require an account.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMX Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Automotive Retail — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put KMX next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Upgrade indicates improved market sentiment and outlook.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $56.17
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $56.17.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Execute four-pillar strategic growth framework
Strong unit sales and CAF growth support strategic growth framework.
Advances: Prudent capital allocation with share repurchase readiness
Resumption of share repurchases aligns with capital allocation goals.
Advances: Strengthen CarMax Auto Finance profitability and penetration
Higher profits and revenue boost CarMax Auto Finance profitability.
Advances: Achieve $200 million SG&A reductions by FY27
Higher profits support SG&A reduction objective.
Advances: Execute four-pillar strategic growth framework
Earnings and revenue beat aligns with growth objectives.
Threatens: Execute four-pillar strategic growth framework
Consumer sentiment impacts growth strategy execution.
Threatens: Achieve $200 million SG&A reductions by FY27
Layoffs indicate challenges in achieving SG&A reduction goals.
