NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto & Truck DealershipsSnapshot 2026-07-31
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Create your account →Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 2% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 50% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskCarMax's growth strategy has to keep compounding to justify the price. Revenue grew 6% year over year, and the latest earnings report showed a significant earnings beat with a 39% surprise. It trades at 21× P/E versus a peer median of 16×, indicating that the price reflects less growth than forecasted. A specific risk is if KMX cuts guidance on the next call, which could lead to a meaningful negative impact, as the Street tends to lower estimates in such cases. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades, this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-31. KMX is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 21 analysts currently covering KMX (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 9 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for KMX in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-08-01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Automotive Retail — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Threatens: Achieve $200 million SG&A reductions by FY27
Warning on costs impacts SG&A reduction objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-31. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $57.26
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $57.26.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Prudent capital allocation with share repurchase readiness
CEO's stock purchase signals confidence in company value.
Advances: Execute four-pillar strategic growth framework
Sales beat supports growth strategy.
Advances: Execute four-pillar strategic growth framework
Earnings beat supports growth strategy execution.
Threatens: Achieve $200 million SG&A reductions by FY27
Operational challenges indicate high costs affecting SG&A goals.
Advances: Strengthen financial position
Strong sales growth enhances financial position.
Threatens: Execute four-pillar strategic growth framework
Earnings beat but turnaround plan details raise concerns.
Downgrade indicates concerns about operational improvements.
