Reading AN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AN free→Reading AN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AN free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto & Truck DealershipsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $193.42. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $193 AN trades at 10× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $324 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $208–$255. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 40% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.27x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $5.49 → $5.41 (-1.5% / 30d). 5 raised, 5 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 71% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.0% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$101.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$281.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,139.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Continued EPS growth signals strong financial health and management effectiveness. It shows the company is on track with its growth priorities.
Confirms:Q2 2026 EPS exceeds $5.85, the EPS reported for Q1 2026.
Disproves:Q2 2026 EPS falls below $5.85, indicating a decline in performance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 1, 2026, AutoNation, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$208.00 – $255.00 (median $237.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AN AutoNation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
ORLY O’Reilly Automotive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AZO AutoZone | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
PAG Penske Automotive Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | full | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to drive earnings per share growth through operational efficiency and strategic initiatives.
Management is committed to maintaining stable gross profit margins despite market fluctuations.
Management aims to enhance cash flow from operations through efficiency improvements.
Why it matters: Stable or rising gross profit margins show good cost control and pricing.
Confirms one read:Gross profit margins improve compared to the 18.5% reported for Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:Gross profit margins drop below 18.5%. This shows possible cost issues.
Why it matters: A decline in unit sales could indicate weakening demand and affect overall revenue. It is a key measure of market performance.
Confirms:Same-store new vehicle sales fall below 56,316 units, the number from Q1 2026.
Disproves:Same-store new vehicle sales stay above 56,316 units. This shows steady demand.
Why it matters: Growth in the finance portfolio shows strong demand for loans and can boost profits.
Confirms:AutoNation Finance portfolio grows past $2.4 billion, the amount from Q1 2026.
Disproves:AutoNation Finance portfolio growth stops. It falls below $2.4 billion.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 28, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of AutoNation, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the AutoNation, Inc. 2026 Employee Equity and Incentive Plan (the “2026 Plan”), subject to stockholder approval at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”). On April 28, 2026, the Company’s stockholders approved the…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 6, 2026, AutoNation, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (t…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 23, 2025, AutoNation, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exch…