AutoNation (AN)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$161.05-0.49%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge AutoNation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-5.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

24.93 → 23.52 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	7.1B
EPS	—	5.544
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	27.53B
EPS	—	20.894
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	28.32B
EPS	—	23.522

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
cash from operations improvement	Cash from operations improved from -$52.5M to $22.2M.	Intact	cash from operations falls below $0 next quarter	Cash from operations: $-71.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $22.2M cash from operations next quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 31, 2026-71,100,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
earnings per share growth	AutoNation is growing earnings per share.	Improving	EPS falls below $5.00 next quarter	Diluted EPS: $5.39 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.85 EPS next quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 31, 20265.39 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2e8fae27-5d79-4c77-b03d-a356f140f6e6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
gross profit near $1.21B	The company keeps gross profit stable near $1.21B.	Broken	gross profit falls below $1.15B next quarter	Gross profit: $1.231B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.21B gross profit next quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 31, 20261,231,100,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2e8fae27-5d79-4c77-b03d-a356f140f6e6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$23.52

$24.39 → $23.52 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$28.32B

$28.77B → $28.32B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$24.39	$28,770,566,610	14 / 11
2026-07-25	$24.39	$28,770,566,610	14 / 11
2026-07-26	$24.39	$28,770,566,610	14 / 11
2026-07-27	$24.39	$28,770,566,610	14 / 11
2026-07-28	$24.39	$28,770,566,610	14 / 11
2026-07-29	$24.39	$28,770,566,610	14 / 11
2026-07-30	$24.39	$28,770,566,610	14 / 11
2026-07-31	$24.39	$28,770,566,610	14 / 11
2026-08-01	$24.39	$28,770,566,610	14 / 11
2026-08-02	$24.39	$28,757,157,520	14 / 11
2026-08-03	$24.39	$28,757,157,520	14 / 11
2026-08-04	$24.39	$28,757,157,520	14 / 11
2026-08-05	$24.80	$28,709,489,890	14 / 11
2026-08-06	$24.80	$28,709,489,890	14 / 11
2026-08-07	$24.48	$28,710,133,790	9 / 9
2026-08-08	$24.66	$28,720,751,880	14 / 12
2026-08-09	$24.66	$28,720,751,880	14 / 12
2026-08-10	$24.66	$28,720,751,880	14 / 12
2026-08-11	$24.72	$28,719,026,880	14 / 12
2026-08-12	$24.73	$28,719,026,880	14 / 12
2026-08-13	$24.73	$28,719,026,880	14 / 12
2026-08-14	$24.48	$28,710,133,790	9 / 9
2026-08-15	$24.48	$28,710,133,790	9 / 9
2026-08-16	$24.48	$28,710,133,790	9 / 9
2026-08-17	$24.48	$28,710,133,790	9 / 9
2026-08-18	$24.48	$28,710,133,790	9 / 9
2026-08-19	$24.48	$28,710,133,790	9 / 9
2026-08-20	$24.48	$28,710,133,790	9 / 9
2026-08-21	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-08-22	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-08-23	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-08-24	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-08-25	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-08-26	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-08-27	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-08-28	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-08-29	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-08-30	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-08-31	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-09-01	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-09-02	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-09-03	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-09-04	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-09-05	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-09-06	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-09-07	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-09-08	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-09-09	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-09-10	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-09-11	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-09-12	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-09-13	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-09-14	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-09-15	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-09-16	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 10
2026-09-17	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 9
2026-09-18	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 9
2026-09-19	$24.73	$28,662,569,989	8 / 9
2026-09-20	$24.93	$28,667,986,988	7 / 9
2026-09-21	$24.93	$28,667,986,988	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$24.93	$28,667,986,988	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$24.93	$28,667,986,988	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$24.93	$28,667,986,988	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$24.93	$28,667,986,988	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$24.93	$28,667,986,988	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$24.93	$28,667,986,988	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$24.93	$28,667,986,988	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$24.77	$28,627,916,988	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$24.77	$28,627,916,988	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$24.77	$28,627,916,988	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$24.77	$28,627,916,988	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$24.77	$28,627,916,988	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$24.77	$28,627,916,988	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$24.77	$28,627,916,988	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$24.60	$28,588,431,406	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$24.60	$28,588,431,406	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$24.12	$28,536,985,094	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$24.12	$28,536,985,094	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$24.12	$28,536,985,094	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$24.01	$28,518,871,094	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$24.01	$28,518,871,094	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$23.84	$28,464,771,094	7 / 9
2026-10-14	$23.84	$28,464,771,094	7 / 9
2026-10-15	$23.84	$28,464,771,094	7 / 9
2026-10-16	$23.60	$28,362,987,870	7 / 9
2026-10-17	$23.60	$28,362,987,870	7 / 9
2026-10-18	$23.52	$28,319,505,090	8 / 9
2026-10-19	$23.52	$28,319,505,090	8 / 9
2026-10-20	$23.52	$28,319,505,090	8 / 9
2026-10-21	$23.52	$28,319,505,090	8 / 9
2026-10-22	$23.52	$28,319,505,090	8 / 9
2026-10-23	$23.52	$28,319,505,090	8 / 9
2026-10-24	$23.52	$28,319,505,090	8 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	5
2026-06-01	10	4
2026-07-01	11	4
2026-08-01	11	4
2026-09-01	11	4
2026-10-01	11	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 7 · prior Aug 3

$248.00 → $213.00-14.1%

BarclaysOct 6 · prior Jul 15

$260.00 → $230.00-11.5%

Morgan StanleyOct 5 · prior Aug 6

$250.00 → $175.00-30.0%

$0$143.00$286.00

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

cash from operations improvementCash from operations: $-71.1M
earnings per share growthDiluted EPS: $5.39 per share
gross profit near $1.21BPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 30, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-33.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

AutoNation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a value-oriented dealership business with a cheap-versus-peers valuation, but its earnings quality is fragile. The long-term thesis is intact, though recent adjusted EPS gains have been modest and confidence in the evidence is medium.

What's priced into AutoNation

The evidence describes AN as cheap versus peers, and the priced-in assessment says the valuation is justified rather than reflecting a broad stack of risks. The valuation measure rose from 55.0 to 69.4, while weak execution quality is the main fragility noted; the expectations gap is negative, but its meaning is not specified in the evidence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management is delivering on finance growth and capital deployment: the finance portfolio and income increased from the first to the second quarter of 2026, and the company repurchased shares and acquired dealerships in the first half. Adjusted EPS was slightly higher year over year in both reported 2026 quarters, but the gains were modest, and the evidence also notes a history of recent misses despite low assessed miss risk. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative.

What AutoNation hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether AutoNation Finance can keep growing while improving profitability and whether adjusted EPS growth becomes more substantial. Sector conditions are another swing factor: continued strong results and higher guidance from CVNA, PAG, and KMX would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that tailwind.