AutoNation (AN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$209.18-0.06%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
AutoNation is growing earnings per share. EPS rose from $4.61 to $5.85. Cash from operations improved from -$52.5M to $22.2M. The company keeps gross profit stable near $1.21B.
Revenue fell 2% last quarter. Cash flow was negative a year ago. Profit margins could weaken if market conditions worsen.
The price is about 20% below our fair value near $239. Analysts expect about 3% revenue growth. We see room for improvement but risks remain.
Breaks if: cash from operations falls below $0 next quarter
Enhance cash flow generation through operational efficiency and portfolio growth to support capital deployment and shareholder returns.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on earnings growth. The current thesis state is stable, supported by management's consistent priorities and recent earnings beats.
The market currently prices AN as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a low expectations gap. However, there is a fragility in earnings quality that suggests the market is cautious about future performance.
Management's emphasis on earnings per share (EPS) growth and stable gross profit indicates a commitment to improving financial performance. Recent results show a mixed trajectory in cash flow, which could impact future stability.
Key factors include management's ability to maintain guidance and navigate sector headwinds. Additionally, inflation trends and performance of sector peers will be crucial in shaping AN's future outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the growth thesis. However, there are concerns about profit pressures affecting future earnings growth.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Cash from operating activities fluctuated, with $22.2M in 2026-Q1 and $150.5M in 2025-Q4, but adjusted free cash flow was strong at $439.2M in 2026-H1, representing 125% of adjusted net income. Management's focus on cash flow and capital deployment shows delivering trajectory with some quarter variability.
“Adjusted free cash flow was $439.2 million, or 125% of adjusted net income”
“Adjusted free cash flow was $256 million, or 155% of adjusted net income”
“Cash provided by operating activities $112 million; Adjusted Free Cash Flow greater than $1 billion”
“Adjusted free cash flow was $786 million, or 134% of adjusted net income”
“Adjusted Diluted EPS $ 10.11”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $5.00 next quarter
Continue to grow earnings per share through operational improvements, portfolio growth, and disciplined capital allocation.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Adjusted EPS grew from $4.02 in 2024-Q3 to $5.56 in 2026-Q2, and diluted EPS increased from $2.26 in 2025-Q2 to $5.39 in 2026-Q2. Management has consistently emphasized EPS growth and the financial results show delivering trajectory.
“Sixth consecutive quarter of Adjusted EPS growth”
“Adjusted earnings per share increased year-over-year for the fifth consecutive quarter”
“Full year Adjusted EPS was $20.22, compared to $17.46 a year ago”
“Third quarter 2025 Adjusted EPS was $5.01, compared to $4.02 a year ago”
“Adjusted Diluted EPS $ 10.11”
Breaks if: gross profit falls below $1.15B next quarter
Focus on sustaining stable gross profit levels across new and used vehicle sales and after-sales services despite volume fluctuations.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Gross profit declined modestly from $1,275.4M in 2025-Q2 to $1,231.1M in 2026-Q2 (-3.5%), with same-store gross profit down 4% year-over-year. Management emphasizes record After-Sales profit and stable gross profit, reflecting a stable but slightly declining trajectory.
“Record After-Sales gross profit; Customer Pay growth 7%”
“Record Q1 After-Sales gross profit; total store growth of 5%”
“Record Q4 After-Sales gross profit; same-store growth of 4%”
“After-Sales gross profit of $597 million up 7%”
“Adjusted Diluted EPS $ 10.11”
In the next 1-3 years, AN's performance will depend on its execution and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.