Reading ABG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ABG free→Reading ABG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ABG free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto & Truck DealershipsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 51% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. If sector bellwethers like CVNA, PAG, and KMX keep beating earnings, that could help ABG. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $200.01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $200 ABG trades at 8× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $410 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $202–$254. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 51% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $6.58 → $6.46 (-1.8% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 27% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.3% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$114.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$318.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,372.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: EPS growth shows Asbury is making money. This can make investors trust Asbury more.
Confirms:Q2 EPS exceeds $9.87 per diluted share.
Disproves:Q2 EPS falls below $8.00 per diluted share.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Focus on operational efficiency
New dealership center enhances operational efficiency.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously announced in the Current Report on Form 8-K filed by Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (the “Company”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission on December 8, 2025, the Board of Directors of the Company elected Daniel Clara to serve as President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company, effective following the Company’s 2026 Annual M…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$202.00 – $254.00 (median $220.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ABG Asbury Automotive Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
ORLY O’Reilly Automotive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AZO AutoZone | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | moderate |
PAG Penske Automotive Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | full | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue efforts to improve operational efficiency to enhance profitability.
Aim to improve gross profit margins through strategic initiatives.
Continue to increase cash generated from operating activities.
Why it matters: Better gross profit margins help Asbury run more efficiently. This shows they manage costs well.
Confirms:Q2 gross profit margin exceeds 17.7%, showing improvement from Q1.
Disproves:In Q2, gross profit margin drops below 17.0%. This means cost management is getting worse.
Why it matters: More cash from operations helps Asbury with its spending goals and keeps it financially healthy.
Confirms:Cash from operations in Q2 exceeds $200 million.
Disproves:Cash from operations in Q2 falls below $150 million.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued an earnings release on April 28, 2026, announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the earnings release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report. The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amende…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued an earnings release on February 5, 2026, announcing its financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the earnings release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report. The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 29, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (the “Company”), upon the recommendation of the Governance & Nominating Committee, appointed Christopher DiSantis to serve as a member of the Board effective March 1, 2026. The appointment of Mr. DiSantis will bring the total number of Company Directors to el…